Written by: on-chain Revelation
- Breaking: The compliance king of the United States, Kalshi, partners with Solana to seize liquidity.
On the morning of December 1, 2025, CNBC was the first to release exclusive news: Kalshi, the first and currently the only prediction market platform in U.S. history to receive comprehensive regulation from the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), has begun allowing users to buy and sell tokenized versions of its event contracts on the Solana blockchain.
This also means that by tokenizing all compliant betting contracts, Kalshi has integrated billions in liquidity from the crypto world into the legal markets of all 50 states in the United States.
Kalshi's Head of Crypto Business, John Wang, publicly stated in a media interview that by entering the $3 trillion digital asset market, Kalshi will be able to gain the liquidity needed to scale its products, while the demand from investors for prediction markets is rapidly increasing.
To achieve this, Kalshi did two key things:
Currently supports decentralized finance protocols such as DFlow and Jupiter, connecting Kalshi's off-chain order book with Solana liquidity.
Announcing over $2 million in “Kalshi Builder Grants”, the next official partner has been confirmed as Axiom, and more chains will be supported in the future.
In addition, the November funding round led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG raised $1 billion for Kalshi, which has a valuation of approximately $11 billion. This creates a competitive balance with its rival Polymarket— the latter announced a strategic investment agreement with the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange) at the end of October, with ICE committing to invest up to $2 billion, pushing Polymarket's post-money valuation to around $9 billion (pre-money approximately $8 billion).
II. Why now? Why Solana?
Three months ago. In September 2025, Kalshi's monthly trading volume surpassed Polymarket for the first time (1.3 billion USD vs 773 million USD). In October, both set historical highs almost simultaneously: Kalshi at 4.39 billion USD and Polymarket at 3.02 billion USD. After the election bonus faded, both realized: the next trillion-dollar track is not in politics, but in sports, macro data, entertainment, and weather. But the paths are completely different:
Polymarket: Choose to continue “deepening decentralization” and prepare to officially return to the U.S. market in 2026 + issue ( tokens;
Kalshi: Decides on “half-step on-chain”: the core settlement and compliance layer remains in their own hands, but the liquidity layer is fully opened to the crypto world.
There is almost no doubt why Solana was chosen:
The real user transaction throughput remains stable at 700–1,000 TPS over the long term, with peaks exceeding 3,000–5,000 TPS, far surpassing the vast majority of public chains; the Gas fee for a single transaction is usually below 0.002 dollars, even during congestion it is still far below 0.01 dollars;
Jupiter is the absolutely dominant router and aggregator in the Solana ecosystem, with a TVL of $2.6 billion.
The monthly active users of the Phantom wallet have exceeded 15 million, and the mobile experience (built-in DApp browser, native NFT support, one-click Swap) is widely regarded as far superior to the mobile version of MetaMask;
In the past 12 months, Solana's ecosystem prediction market protocols (such as Parcl, Hedgies, Limitless, etc.) have educated and accumulated a large number of users with an understanding of prediction markets, providing a ready user base and mindset for Kalshi's on-chain contracts.
Kalshi needs not “to build another chain”, but “to attach ready-made wings”. Solana happens to be those wings.
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Kalshi vs Polymarket: Ultimate Comparison Table for 2025
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After the strong join forces: Who is affected? Who will benefit?
The hardest hit: Polymarket and its “crypto native users”
Over the past year, what Polymarket is most proud of is “I can allow an Iranian address and an Argentine address to bet on the U.S. elections without any obstacles.” Now, Kalshi has perfectly broken this barrier with “KYC once, then play freely.” A large number of mid-sized whales have started moving funds from Polymarket to Kalshi Solana because:
smaller slippage;
Not afraid of oracle controversies;
You can still keep your wallet anonymous.
The tokenization initiative will pose a real challenge to the market share of prediction platforms like Polymarket by granting Kalshi users greater anonymity while being backed by compliance.
Biggest Beneficiary: Solana Ecosystem
Overnight, Kalshi directed massive liquidity from compliant prediction markets straight to Solana:
TVL is set to skyrocket visibly, Jupiter will experience unprecedented real order depth, and the Phantom wallet will make a strong comeback to the top of the App Store tool rankings — this is not short-term speculation, but the true “super entrance to the prediction market” of the Solana ecosystem is officially activated.
From now on, the uncertainty of all real-world aspects such as politics, sports, macroeconomics, and entertainment has found the fastest, cheapest, and deepest trading venue on Solana.
Long-term beneficiaries: the entire prediction market track
The result of competition will only lead to further concentration of liquidity, further compression of spreads, and an exponential improvement in user experience. Before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, it is no doubt that monthly trading volume will exceed 10 billion.
Five, Polymarket's counterattack window: only 6–9 months left.
Currently, Polymarket still has three cards in hand:
) token (community incentives + fee dividends);
Officially returning to the United States in 2026 (CFTC exemption is in the final stage);
More aggressive market themes (as long as it's legal, it's always bolder than Kalshi).
But time is running out. Kalshi has already proven that regulation is not a burden, but the sharpest spear.
When you can provide both compliant security and an ultimate on-chain experience, the so-called “decentralized faith” is actually laughably fragile in the face of real money.
- Conclusion: The next trigger for an explosion?
December 1, 2025, is destined to be written into the annals of prediction markets. It is neither crypto defeating traditional finance, nor traditional finance defeating crypto.
It is simply a fundamental business truth being verified once again: users will always invest in the party that is “more useful, cheaper, and safer,” even if it is only 5% better than its competitors.
And the “liquidity” switch that Kalshi pressed on Solana today has prematurely ignited the second half of the prediction market.
The only thing left to watch is whether Polymarket can push its own switch before the summer of 2026.
