4 economic events in America shook Bitcoin sentiment in the first week of December

The first week of December 2025 promises to be a crucial period for the financial market in America, with a series of key economic events that could significantly impact monetary policy expectations and the trend of Bitcoin, as investors prepare for potential moves from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Bitcoin investors are facing a pivotal week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech on December 1, coinciding with the Fed's official end to the (QT) quantitative tightening program. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December reaching 86%, the market for risk assets is expected to see significant volatility.

Powell's Speech and the End of QT

Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the market at 8 AM on December 2 ( Vietnam time ), not only marking an event awaited by investors but also a moment when the Fed officially concludes its quantitative tightening program – a policy turning point announced by the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) in October.

According to the Fed's announcement on October 29: “The committee has decided to end the reduction of the overall securities holdings on December 1.” This decision reflects the excess reserves in the banking system. Powell's speech comes amid increasing speculation about a potential change in Fed leadership, further adding to market uncertainty.

In particular, this speech takes place just before the Fed's “blackout” period ahead of the December policy meeting, so it could carry special significance. Any signals regarding interest rate direction could cause an immediate market reaction. The end of QT indicates that the Fed may shift to a more accommodative monetary policy, increasing USD liquidity.

Additionally, there is information suggesting that President Trump has chosen a successor to Powell, although there has been no official announcement. These speculations could increase volatility as the market considers the possibility that the new chairman may push for faster interest rate cuts.

The possibility of replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell | Source: Kalshi## ADP jobs report

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), the largest payroll processing company in America, will release the ADP Employment Change report for November at 8:15 PM Wednesday ( Vietnam time ), measuring the change in the number of private sector jobs in America.

The report last month recorded only 42,000 new jobs, according to MarketWatch's economic calendar. The new data will provide important insights into the health of the labor market, just before the government's official employment figures are released.

Economic events in the United States this week. |Source: Market WatchIf the employment data is positive, the likelihood of the Fed lowering interest rates will decrease, putting pressure on Bitcoin and other risky assets. Conversely, weak job growth will strengthen expectations that the Fed will loosen policy, which typically benefits the cryptocurrency market.

The AI bubble is also expected to impact this week's job report, although industry experts have differing opinions.

Labor statistics play a crucial role in the Fed's dual mandate and serve as a basis for policy decisions.

First Unemployment Benefit Application

The report on initial unemployment claims will be released on Thursday, December 4, at 8:30 PM ( Vietnam time ). This is a weekly measure of the number of people who have been laid off, providing an immediate glimpse into labor market conditions, determining the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment claims in the previous week.

An increase in jobless claims may indicate a weakening economy, reinforcing the view that monetary policy needs to be loosened; conversely, a decrease in jobless claims reflects the resilience of the labor market and reduces the pressure to cut interest rates.

Bitcoin is very sensitive to employment reports, as they directly affect the Fed's outlook on monetary policy and liquidity. Traders often position themselves ahead of these reports, causing significant volatility in the spot and derivative markets.

PCE inflation data

On Friday, December 5, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) – the Fed's preferred inflation measure – will be released at 8:30 PM (Vietnam time). This report plays a key role in tracking the progress towards the central bank's 2% inflation target, while being released alongside personal income and spending data, providing a comprehensive assessment of consumer health.

Investors will pay attention to both the overall and core PCE figures. If the data shows a clear deflationary trend, expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December will be strengthened. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, investors currently forecast a 87.6% chance of the Fed lowering interest rates at the meeting on December 10, compared to a 12.4% chance of maintaining them.

The Fed's ability to cut interest rates | Source: CMENg's FedWatch toolOn the contrary, persistent inflation will make the Fed more cautious, which could disappoint the market's expectations for strong easing.

The consumer sentiment index will be announced at 10:00 PM ( Vietnam time), with a previous value of 51. This is a measure of households' views on the economy and spending. Weakening sentiment can signal slowing demand, reinforcing the case for monetary policy easing, which often supports Bitcoin.

Four important economic reports in one week create a risky trading environment for the digital asset market. The strong correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets means that macro news is likely to drive market trends more strongly than specific events related to digital currencies.

As the first week of December begins, the interaction between employment data, inflation trends, and the Fed's policy direction will determine the momentum as well as Bitcoin's response to signals of changes in monetary policy.

Mr. Teacher