The "10.11" liquidation event, combined with macro headwinds, is putting pressure on the crypto market, which is in a "preliminary stabilization but not yet reversed" stage.

Odaily News Several VCs stated in interviews that the ongoing pullback in the crypto market is mainly driven by two factors: the concentrated liquidation event on October 10 and a tighter macro environment. Dragonfly partner Rob Hadick pointed out that low liquidity, insufficient risk management, and defects in oracle or leverage design have led to large-scale deleveraging, causing market uncertainty; Tribe Capital partner Boris Revsin also referred to this event as a “leverage whipsaw,” creating a chain reaction throughout the market. Meanwhile, macro factors such as cooling short-term interest rate cut expectations, sticky inflation, weakening employment data, rising geopolitical risks, and consumer fatigue have put overall pressure on risk assets over the past two months. Robot Ventures partner Anirudh Pai noted that some leading economic indicators in the U.S. have begun to decline, a similar trend was observed during the previous “recession concerns” phase, and it is currently difficult to determine whether it will worsen into a full-blown recession. The VCs also mentioned that apart from some buyback-supported tokens, the market lacks new capital inflows, and the ETF inflow momentum has slowed, leading to a faster decline in prices. Looking ahead, VCs believe that the most critical factor is the clarification of the macro path, including interest rate policy and the future leadership selection of the Fed, which will have a significant impact on risk assets. The data window period also increases fluctuations, with the next employment data being seen as an important signal. Furthermore, long-term driving factors such as accelerated on-chain economic activity, AI trading sentiment spillover, and trends in payment and tokenization are still underestimated by the market. At this stage, VCs generally believe the market has entered a “preliminary stabilization period,” but it is not enough to declare that a bottom has formed. Bitcoin rebounded from around $80,000, ETF inflows have slightly improved, but overall it still remains sensitive to interest rates, inflation, and AI earnings reports. Multiple interviewees consider the $100,000—$110,000 range for Bitcoin as an important interval for market sentiment reversal. Only with continued net inflow into ETFs, a moderate rebound in the open interest of derivatives, and no excessive leverage may a more solid reversal structure form. Some investors pointed out that the current pullback has reset the valuations of some income-generating quality tokens to 2024 levels, while the on-chain fundamentals are stronger, presenting relative attractiveness; Bitcoin's dominance did not significantly increase during this round of pullback, indicating that there is still demand for allocation in high-quality altcoins. (The Block)