Analysis shows that Bitcoin is facing ETF-related selling pressure around $95,000, which may reinforce the range-bound pattern.

According to Mars Finance, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that Bitcoin has stabilized after a slight rebound. This rise seems related to an improvement in risk sentiment rather than specific drivers within the crypto sector. Meanwhile, the stock market has seen a slight increase, and the market currently expects an 85% probability of a rate cut in December. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and labor market data continues to be weak, including rising unemployment rates. Fed officials' statements have slightly tilted towards a more accommodative stance. Given the lack of other important economic data this week, the market's focus will shift to the unemployment claims and ADP employment report to be released later this week. Credit default swaps (CDS) related to AI and tech credit spreads have continued to widen, indicating that investors are reassessing the driving factors dominating the macro market. Crypto ETFs have seen continued net outflows, with several digital asset products facing liquidation. Currently, most products are trading below $1 per unit of net asset value, reflecting an exacerbation of market risk aversion. As Strategy's Bitcoin reserves approach the breakeven point and its stock is placed on the MSCI delisting watchlist, the issues surrounding Strategy are once again in the spotlight. As the end of the year approaches, Bitcoin faces the dual impact of negative fund flows and a supportive options structure. Correlations with AI-related stocks have increased, while the fear and greed index has decreased. Demand for downside protection remains high, even though open interest still leans towards call options, but both positions and implied volatility have declined. If Bitcoin's price rebounds to around $95,000, it may face selling pressure related to ETFs, thereby reinforcing its range-bound oscillation. After a recent sharp decline, the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a key support level. The crypto market continues to serve as a barometer of overall market risk appetite, with macro driving factors still firmly controlling market direction.