Original Title: The Coming Bitcoin Treasury Bubble
Original author: Tony Yazbeck
Source: CoinDesk
Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy
In recent months, more and more companies have announced plans to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset. They package this move as “visionary”: a bold step towards the financial future, a hedge against inflation, and a symbol of corporate maturity. On the surface, this seems like progress. But in reality, these so-called “Bitcoin treasuries” are mostly just a dangerous distraction, driven by companies that have little to no actual value in the market.
Corporate treasuries were never meant for speculation. When a company adopts Bitcoin not out of genuine belief, but to grab attention, ride the trend, or as a last resort to maintain visibility, it reflects not innovation but desperation. Bitcoin treasuries are being packaged as innovation, but in most cases, they are merely corporate marketing gimmicks. If investors do not wake up quickly, this could evolve into the next round of ICO-style bubble.
Zombie Companies and Magical Thinking
Companies that have not truly grown, have weak fundamentals, or are even experiencing business decline are starting to cling to Bitcoin as if it were a panacea. This phenomenon is unsettling. They are not solving problems, nor are they creating value or building sustainable products – they are “zombie companies” that are only alive in name, long since dead, and now trying to borrow a breath of life by placing Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
This is reminiscent of the early ICO frenzy in 2017. At that time, a number of projects with no real prospects raised billions of dollars by issuing tokens, yet had no practical use cases or implementation roadmaps. Later, most of those projects collapsed, leaving retail investors with a pile of worthless tokens. Today’s Bitcoin treasury narrative is bringing the risk of repeating this cycle back to center stage. The difference is that this time, the core object of corporate hype is no longer a high-risk token, but Bitcoin itself.
Bitcoin is not the problem - it remains the most secure, most decentralized, and most censorship-resistant currency network. The problem is that those businesses treat Bitcoin as a public relations strategy rather than a treasury asset based on long-term conviction.
Why it's important now: The hype is heating up.
So, why is there a need to issue a warning at this moment? Because the speculation is accelerating. Just as the zero-interest rate environment once ignited the fuse for reckless ICO speculation, today’s uncertain macroeconomic environment has made corporate leaders eager to showcase innovative postures. The Bitcoin treasury offers them a seemingly innovative path that doesn’t require fixing their business models.
But this time the risks are far greater than during the ICO era. When a company puts Bitcoin on its balance sheet, it is not just betting on market sentiment, but on shareholder capital. This brings systemic risks to employees, pension plans, and retail investors.
For ordinary people, this sales method is very appealing: “No need to learn self-custody, no need to buy Bitcoin yourself, just buy stocks of companies that hold Bitcoin.”
It sounds like a safer way, but in reality, it is just the opposite. It overlays enterprise risks, debt exposure, and governance flaws on top of Bitcoin, turning a solid asset into a fragile derivative.
What is the real solution?
The answer is actually very clear: individuals should hold Bitcoin directly and self-custody.
From Mt. Gox to FTX, the lessons left by these failed exchanges and collapsed intermediaries couldn't be clearer. Handing over control of assets to a company is equivalent to straying from the fundamental meaning of Bitcoin's existence.
A few companies with robust business models and clear strategies may succeed with Bitcoin treasury strategies—but that will be the exception. The vast majority of companies will fail because they neither understand the spirit of Bitcoin nor align with financial realities. They are not creating value; they are extracting attention.
What about the winner?
Of course, there are counterexamples. Take MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, for example, which has gained attention for its aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin as a core treasury asset. Some believe that such corporate holding strategies can bring broader legitimacy and accelerate institutional adoption.
Indeed, a small number of well-capitalized and disciplined companies may withstand volatility and incorporate Bitcoin into their systems in a meaningful way—but this is not common.
Behind every winner, there are dozens of losers—those companies with shaky balance sheets and reckless management that treat Bitcoin as a short-term gimmick. The more high-profile success stories make headlines, the easier it is for these speculators to wrap themselves in borrowed glory and fool investors.
Even in the best-case scenario, a corporate treasury holding Bitcoin can never be equivalent to an individual controlling their own private keys. Shareholders still have to bear the impact of management decisions, regulatory risks, and layers of intermediary structures. The true power of Bitcoin comes from direct ownership, not corporate custody.
Bitcoin is Bitcoin, everything else is not.
In the coming months, the Bitcoin treasury may continue to make headlines. Some will be hailed as “visionary,” while others will quietly implode and be forgotten amidst the volatility. As long as investors still believe that tying Bitcoin to a struggling company can make it magically appear stronger, this bubble will continue to expand.
But history has already provided the answer: the hype cycles will ultimately burst. The ICO boom has collapsed, and the “metaverse craze” has also cooled down. If the Bitcoin treasury continues down the current narrative path, it will similarly struggle to escape its fate.
The right path is simple.
Those who truly believe in Bitcoin should buy (or earn) it directly and self-custody it. This won't create flashy headlines or cause company stocks to soar, but it is the only way that aligns with the original intent of Bitcoin while also being able to withstand corporate management failures and risks.
The next round of bubbles does not have to harm retail investors like ICOs did. If people can identify the risks and are not misled by the marketing narratives of corporate Bitcoin treasuries, this cycle might have a different outcome.
But if speculation once again outweighs the fundamentals, the collapse will be swift and brutal. Bitcoin is not a shortcut to wealth, nor is there a free lunch.
