Nick Szabo, whose early writings helped shape the philosophy of Bitcoin, broke his silence with an unusual thread dissecting what drives the world’s oldest cryptocurrency. According to Szabo, Bitcoin is still climbing its learning curve — not technically, but psychologically — as more and more people begin to understand its role as a trust-minimized, dilution-resistant form of savings in an increasingly unstable global economy and shifting monetary landscape.
Similar to hot NASDAQ stocks, he said, Bitcoin’s long-term pattern involves adoption waves of real progress, speculative overshoot and a lot of noise in between.
Sound money thesis
Szabo explained that most of what traders obsess over, such as macro data, the M2 supply and gold correlations, are still “secondary signals.” These, he said, will only matter once Bitcoin completes its educational cycle and is no longer treated as a technological investment. Until then, its chart reflects human learning curves more than inflation charts or traditional market cycles.
“Sound money” signals are real, he noted, but they are buried under speculation and will eventually take over only when Bitcoin’s adoption phase matures.
When another analyst cautioned that Bitcoin might reach a “ceiling or a cliff,” Szabo dismissed the concern, stating that the history of money and Bitcoin’s architecture already demonstrate what is most likely to occur.
The market seemed less philosophical about it — BTC traded around $104,500, down nearly 2% in the past day — but Szabo’s message cut through clearly: Bitcoin’s biggest signal is still education, not macroeconomics, and that process has only just begun to unfold.
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