Research

Global macro conditions remain highly uncertain. Escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to raise concerns over oil supply, keeping crude prices elevated at around $90–$100 per barrel. At the same time, shifting expectations around the Fed’s rate path remain a key driver of market sentiment.

Gate Research VIP Report: BTC remains in a short-term range-bound but weak structure, facing clear resistance overhead, while ETH is also trading in a weak range, repeatedly testing key support levels. SIREN’s sharp rally is mainly driven by supply burns and institutional backing, while ANKR is rising with the broader market rebound and IDOL benefits from the AI idol narrative. The OpenAI–AWS partnership extends AI services into government-level classified systems, signaling AI’s rise as national infrastructure. Driven by AI, AWS has raised its long-term revenue outlook to $600 billion, intensifying industry competition. Meanwhile, growing divisions within the Fed are increasing uncertainty around future rate paths, potentially amplifying market volatility.

Gate Research Daily Report: BTC remains in a short-term range-bound but weak structure, facing clear resistance overhead, while ETH is also trading in a weak range, repeatedly testing key support levels. SIREN’s sharp rally is mainly driven by supply burns and institutional backing, while ANKR is rising with the broader market rebound and IDOL benefits from the AI idol narrative. The OpenAI–AWS partnership extends AI services into government-level classified systems, signaling AI’s rise as national infrastructure. Driven by AI, AWS has raised its long-term revenue outlook to $600 billion, intensifying industry competition. Meanwhile, growing divisions within the Fed are increasing uncertainty around future rate paths, potentially amplifying market volatility.

Gate Options Daily Market Update.

Over the past week, global markets have been primarily driven by energy shocks and geopolitical risks. WTI crude rose more than 4%, with higher oil prices reinforcing inflation expectations and further constraining the scope for rate cuts. The Dollar Index moved back above 100, while Treasury yields climbed in tandem. Risk assets broadly came under pressure, yet the crypto market showed notable resilience. Consecutive net inflows into BTC ETFs indicate continued institutional accumulation during the pullback. On-chain, stablecoin supply continued to expand, with liquidity increasingly concentrated in leading protocols. Lending and LST sectors also rebounded, reflecting a marginal recovery in risk appetite. In derivatives markets, funding rates remained largely negative while implied volatility declined, suggesting market sentiment is gradually recovering from extreme caution. Looking ahead, markets will focus on the upcoming Fed rate decision and policy signals from major central banks, which will directly sh

In the cryptocurrency market, BTC exhibited a clear pullback followed by weak consolidation last week. After briefly rallying to around $76,000 midweek, the price quickly retraced. ETH climbed to a midweek high of $2,385 before giving back most of its gains. Among altcoins, SIREN was the standout performer of the cycle, posting gains of approximately 169.56%. Over the past week, on-chain capital flows exhibited a clear one-way trend, with liquidity moving decisively toward Hyperliquid, while Arbitrum emerged as the primary source of outflows. Meanwhile, Polymarket saw rapid revenue growth, with monthly fees surpassing $5 million, underscoring the commercial viability and cash flow potential of prediction markets.

Gate Research Daily Report: On March 24, the crypto market as a whole entered a corrective rebound phase. BTC and ETH strengthened in tandem, but the Fear and Greed Index remained in the Extreme Fear zone. The current recovery is still primarily capital-driven, and market sentiment has not fully warmed up. On the market board, ANON, CSPR, and LIGHT ranked as the top three gainers among assets with a market cap exceeding 10 million USD, corresponding respectively to the three niche sectors of AI DeFi assistants, enterprise-grade public chains, and Bitcoin infrastructure. Incremental funds are conducting structural rotations around high-recognition themes. At the industry level, the partnership between Deloitte Canada and Stablecorp, Nasdaq’s tokenized collateral integration with Talos, and the on-chain risk control collaboration between Bluprynt and Kroll show that institutional-grade infrastructure such as stablecoins, collateral management, and compliance trust layers continues to advance steadily.

Gate Research Daily Report: On March 23, the rebound in BTC and ETH failed to sustain upward momentum, with capital returning to defensive positioning and overall risk appetite remaining subdued. Altcoins did not see broad-based expansion, and market opportunities were mainly concentrated in short-term rotation across high-volatility sectors. SIREN, BR, and BANANAS31 respectively represent active capital flows in the AI Agent, BTCFi, and BNB Chain meme segments. At the industry level, tokenized gold is progressing toward a standardized infrastructure phase, while connections between payment networks and capital market infrastructure continue to deepen. Meanwhile, competition in the stablecoin space is gradually shifting from issuance to treasury and capital management capabilities.

In February 2026, the on-chain ecosystem exhibited more pronounced structural divergence amid price pressure. On-chain activity did not contract in tandem, but instead became further concentrated on high-frequency and high-efficiency networks. Solana maintained its dominance in high-frequency activity, while Base and Polygon continued to expand. Arbitrum saw a recovery in activity, but its capital retention and value capture weakened. Ethereum shifted from net outflows to significant net inflows, reinforcing its role as the primary settlement layer and a key hub for macro asset deployment. On the BTC side, the price pullback pushed short-term holders broadly into unrealized losses, with profit-taking cooling and sell pressure still concentrated among short-term positions, while the long-term holder structure remained intact. At the sector level, AI Agent, supply-side shocks, and institutional DeFi narratives coexisted. Short-term returns were driven by structural catalysts, while mid-term allocation continued

Gate Research: Large language models and AI agent technologies are pushing trading systems into a new stage of development. Quantitative trading, which previously relied heavily on programming skills and complex engineering systems, is gradually evolving into product forms with much lower barriers to entry. Gate has introduced products such as AI Quant Workspace and Gate for AI, which aim to integrate strategy generation, backtesting, and automated execution within a single platform through natural language interaction, no-code quant tools, and unified trading interfaces, allowing more users to participate in strategy trading. As AI technology continues to mature, trading platforms are also evolving from traditional matching tools into AI-driven trading infrastructure.

In February, the overall crypto market showed a weak trend, with notable outflows from BTC ETFs. Major blockchains remained stable throughout the month, with Solana leading by a wide margin at over 100 million daily transactions. Ethereum recorded 13.34 million unique active addresses, maintaining its second-highest level in history. TradFi trading volume on Perp DEXs surged to $47.3 billion, largely driven by Hyperliquid’s HIP-3. The Web3 sector completed 46 funding rounds totaling $986 million, with the top 10 projects accounting for $793 million—three major deals were led by Tether. Meanwhile, Web3 security incidents declined significantly month-over-month, though smart contract vulnerabilities remained the primary risk source.

Gate Research Institute: Over the past 24 hours, BTC briefly climbed above $71,000, but following a sharp drop and quick rebound during the U.S. market session, it settled back near $69,300. ETH rapidly declined from $2,070 to $2,010 and remains in a recovery phase. Altcoins showed weakness, with most lagging behind BTC, while the Fear & Greed Index remains in the extreme fear range. HUMA, NAORIS, and ARIA saw gains of 50.13%, 39.38%, and 29.02%, respectively, fueled by AI-related narratives. Additionally, Oracle’s earnings beat expectations, driving its share price up nearly 8% after hours, and both Hyperliquid and Circle announced significant product updates.

Gate Research: Between 2025 and 2026, PayFi is evolving from a crypto payment tool into a next-generation payment and financial engine, with stablecoins achieving scale in high-frequency and cross-border payments and demonstrating clear efficiency and cost advantages over traditional systems. As Web2 and Web3 continue to converge, institutions such as Visa, PayPal, and emerging neobanks are becoming key gateways to mainstream adoption, while the combination of stablecoins, real-world assets (RWA), and AI is shaping PayFi’s foundational architecture by enabling automated, always-on settlement, asset mobility, and risk management. Looking ahead to 2026, regulatory clarity, scalable asset tokenization, and the maturity of AI-driven financial systems will be the primary determinants of PayFi’s competitive landscape and long-term barriers.

Gate Research Daily Report: After a round of heavy selling, Bitcoin fell by around 20% over a two-week period. Ethereum has broken below USD 2,400, with the market structure turning bearish. Tweets related to C98 triggered retail FOMO, pushing the token up 37.03%, while PURR broke above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and gained 28.37%. JPMorgan expects Warsh to accommodate Trump’s push for rate cuts in the short term before reverting to a more hawkish stance after the midterm elections; retail pessimism has entered extreme territory, raising the possibility of a technical rebound; and Cboe plans to relaunch binary options trading to compete directly with prediction markets.

Gate Research Daily Report: On Feb 2, crypto markets broadly fell as pullbacks in stocks and gold/silver weighed on risk appetite, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 14—its lowest level this year. BTC is consolidating near the lows after a capitulation wick, with $75K as key support and $80K as major resistance; ETH underperformed, with $2,200 as the critical line—if it breaks, downside targets shift to $2,150 and $2,000. Despite the weak tape, POKT, LMTS, and AVA outperformed on their respective catalysts. Key narratives included prediction markets posting a record $12B+ in January volume, the AI-agent narrative spilling into Clanker and boosting token launches/trading activity, and renewed risk debate in the meme sector after Murad’s reported ~$58M six-month drawdown.