With almost all leading assets trading in a range, analysts emphasize that Jerome Powell’s tone, not the rate cut itself, is likely to determine the market’s next true trend. In recent days, Bitcoin has been moving between $88,000 and $93,000, while liquidity is decreasing toward the end of the year. Ethereum is holding around $3,100, BNB is near $886, and Solana is around $132. The total crypto market capitalization is declining toward $3.1 trillion during this period of waiting. ETF flows indicate rotation into altcoins Despite calm price dynamics, exchange-traded funds reveal a more detailed picture. Bitcoin ETF products reported about $60 million in outflows on Monday, while ETH, SOL, and XRP funds attracted a combined $74 million in net inflows. Markets remain stagnant ahead of the Fed’s “binary” week Analysts describe the sentiment as a market waiting for permission to move. Most traders are staying on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, where a December rate cut is considered the base scenario. Some experts believe the cut is already fully priced in. However, Powell’s guidance will be far more important—especially whether 2026 policy will remain tighter or shift to a more dovish stance. In their opinion, Bitcoin will likely remain locked around $91,000 immediately after the announcement unless Powell surprises the markets. Liquidity evaporates as derivatives traders step back QCP Capital notes that the sharp weekend moves—BTC from $88,000 to $92,000 and ETH from $2,910 to $3,150—highlight how shallow liquidity has become toward year-end. Open interest plunges: - Bitcoin open interest is down more than 44% since October - Ethereum open interest has fallen by over 50% Retail trader participation is also dropping sharply, with Google search interest returning to the lowest levels seen during the bear market. Nevertheless, long-term buyers continue to quietly absorb supply. Around 25,000 BTC have left centralized exchanges over the past two weeks, and ETF + corporate balances now exceed exchange holdings, strengthening the structural supply shortage. Still, without a macro catalyst, this steady absorption isn’t enough to push the price out of the range. Powell’s speech will determine Bitcoin’s next move Analysts are unanimous that tomorrow’s guidance will set the tone for the market in the final weeks of 2025. A more cautious or “hawkish” message may push Bitcoin back to the $88,000 zone. A more dovish outlook or a hint of further cuts in early 2026 could trigger a move toward $93,000–$95,000, with the potential to test $97,000–$106,000 if momentum returns. Until then, the dominant strategy remains waiting. The market is stagnant—the next move depends entirely on Powell’s words.

Altcoins vs $ETH ETH starting to outperform again. The longer ETH leads the bigger the bounce for altcoins later.

Wall Street's tone has suddenly shifted. Just last night, several top investment banks collectively changed their stance—previously insisting that "the Fed will hold rates steady," they've now all switched to supporting a 25 basis point rate cut this week. The attitude shifts from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are particularly noteworthy, as they were previously leading voices in the "pause on rate cuts" camp. Nomura took it even further—this is already their second revision. Not only have they confirmed this week's rate cut, but they've also scheduled additional cuts for June and September next year. Standard Chartered has also moved from a wait-and-see stance to expecting rate cuts, signaling a dramatic and rapid shift in market sentiment. Simply put, the economic data just can’t hold up anymore. The weakness in the job market has given the Fed a "reasonable excuse," and Wall Street analysts clearly know exactly what that means. Once expectations of looser liquidity form, the crypto market is often the first to sniff out the opportunity. Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum typically benefit from capital reallocations during rate-cut cycles. Looking back at history, every time monetary policy shifts to easing, money in the market starts searching for higher-yielding opportunities. Of course, expectations are one thing, and actual moves are another. Markets change in an instant, and the reaction after a rate cut could be completely different from what people expect now. But at least for the moment, the chips on the table are quietly being redistributed.