Cryptocurrency Daily (02.24)：Bitcoin Under Pressure from Macro Disruptions and Capital Flows, Altcoins Show Structural Strength
I. Bitcoin Price Fluctuations and Short-Term Market Dynamics
1. Bitcoin has recently experienced intense volatility, dropping from $67,800 to $64,350, then slightly rebounding. The market is fiercely contesting the key support level at $65,000. Technical indicators show short-term resistance at $69,500-$70,000. A break below could see prices test the support zone at $59,900-$60,000.
2. Macro factors dominate market sentiment. Repeated tariff policies by Trump (including the Supreme Court rejecting emergency tariffs and announcing a 15% temporary tariff) have triggered risk aversion. Bitcoin's correlation with the US tech sector has strengthened, viewing it as a high-beta risk asset. Capital flow data shows Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for five consecutive weeks (totaling $3.8 billion), while altcoin ETFs (such as Solana, XRP) have seen inflows, indicating a market structure shifting toward specific niche segments.
II. Institutional and Major Holder Behavior and Capital Flows
1. The world's largest Bitcoin holder, Strategy, continues to increase holdings, planning its 100th purchase. It currently holds 717,131 BTC (average cost $76,027), facing approximately 13.62% unrealized loss. Funds come from convertible bonds and equity issuance.
2. Significant large-scale fund movements are evident. A newly created wallet withdrew 500 BTC from Bit, while whale funds surged to a 14-month high of $8.2 billion, raising concerns about short-term selling pressure.
3. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 1,292 BTC in a single day, while Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of 57,543 ETH. Institutional capital is rotating among different crypto assets, favoring Bitcoin and select altcoins.
III. Macro and Regulatory Factors Impacting the Market
1. Trump’s repeated tariff policies have shaken the market. After the Supreme Court rejected emergency tariffs, Trump announced a 15% temporary tariff on global goods (valid for 150 days), increasing trade uncertainty and boosting volatility in risk assets.
2. On the macroeconomic front, US crude oil prices rose due to Middle East tensions, boosting inflation expectations. The plunge in US tech stocks (software, private equity) transmitted to the crypto market, reducing risk appetite.
3. Regulatory and policy uncertainties have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, remains under pressure, with concerns about tightening liquidity intensifying.
IV. Market Participants and Structural Changes
1. Bitcoin’s market share dropped from 63.34% to 59.2%, the largest weekly decline in a year. The market structure is tilting toward altcoins, with institutional inflows into Solana, XRP, and other altcoin ETFs driving their prices higher.
2. Retail and institutional behaviors are diverging. Retail investors are experiencing panic, while institutions are strategically positioning via ETFs and large holdings. Privacy coins (ZEC, XMR), utility tokens (OKB), and real-world asset tokens (RWA) are performing notably.
3. Technical indicators show the altcoin seasonal index at 41, indicating a lack of broad market rally. Capital is concentrated in high-confidence niche sectors, such as high-performance Layer 1 networks, meme tokens, and assets favored by institutions.
V. Technology and Ecosystem Development
1. The BIP-110 proposal is gaining discussion in the Bitcoin community. Node signaling has increased from 2.98% to 7.99%, aiming to limit certain data field sizes and correct incentive distortions. The Fractal protocol, as a buffer extension layer, offers technical alternatives for different consensus outcomes.
2. Technical discussions focus on compatibility between mainnet and layer-2 solutions. The Fractal protocol is designed to carry complex states without altering mainnet consensus, avoiding market volatility caused by mainnet rule changes.
VI. Market Forecasts and Institutional Perspectives
1. Analysts have differing Bitcoin price forecasts for 2026. Most believe the normal bottom is between $50,000 and $60,000, with a break below $30,000 considered a low-probability extreme scenario requiring multiple negative factors (such as Fed rate hikes and global panic selling).
2. Attitudes among institutions and seasoned investors vary: Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas has increased Bitcoin holdings during price dips, viewing it as an inflation hedge. Others believe market panic is widespread and that macroeconomic easing or structural demand needs to emerge.
3. Technical analysis indicates Bitcoin is in a bear market consolidation phase. A break above $69,500-$70,000 resistance could trigger a rebound; otherwise, prices may test the support zone at $59,900-$60,000.
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