Bitcoin is at risk of creating a new "death cross" as the price hits resistance at $84,000.

Bitcoin surpassed $84,000 as Wall Street opened on March 19, and the market is preparing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (Fed).

BitcoinBTC 4-hour chart | Source: TradingView## Bitcoin, a risky asset lacking “positive factors ahead of FOMC

Data from TradingView shows that the local high is $84,394.

Risk assets are at a high level ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC), with the Fed expected to keep interest rates unchanged until at least June, according to data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

The probability of the Fed's target interest rate | Source: CME GroupThe nature of the following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is a greater concern for traders. Having already held a hawkish stance, Powell now faces pressure from U.S. trade tariffs as the inflation market has only just begun to decline.

"The FOMC meeting tonight is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, we will closely monitor any dovish changes, especially regarding growth and inflation expectations," trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest newsletter.

"Because it takes months for the effects of tariffs to ripple through the economy, we expect the Fed to remain in a wait-and-see mode. The decision on tariffs on April 2, while anticipated, remains an important source of uncertainty."

While holding over $80,000 throughout the week, Bitcoin's fate remains uncertain as US stocks decline significantly.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices have dropped 4% and 8.7% as of the time of writing compared to a 10% drop in BTC.

"TC has observed some support at the $80,000 level; however, this seems quite fragile in the context of broader macroeconomic weakness. We are not trying to predict exactly when this trend will end, but in the short term, we are struggling to identify factors strong enough to create a clear reversal," QCP added.

The trading information source The Kobeissi Letter has identified a potential ray of hope in the form of increased stock allocations by U.S. retail investors.

"The net inflow of retail investors into the Nasdaq 100 index stocks, calculated as a percentage of market capitalization, has reached 0.1%, the highest level in at least a year. Retail inflows have doubled in just a few weeks. Additionally, JPMorgan's retail investor sentiment score has hit a record 4 points. This figure is about ~1 point higher than the peak during the memecoin stock frenzy in 2021. Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) are the most chosen names by individual investors. Retail investors have fully engaged."

Bitcoin Data on retail investor cash flow through US stocks | Source: The Kobeissi Letter## Poor FOMC results risk pushing Bitcoin down to $76,000

Analyzing the price action of BTC, renowned trader and analyst Rekt Capital hopes that the bullish gap in the CME Bitcoin futures market will be completely "filled" with a surge up to $87,000.

Such gaps continue to serve as short-term magnets.

"Bitcoin continues to successfully retest the CME Gap as support (orange, $78,000 – $80,700). Moreover, BTC has done this at a higher low (black)," Rekt Capital explains along with an illustrative chart.

1-day chart of Bitcoin CME futures | Source: Rekt CapitalKeith Alan, co-founder of the trading source Material Indicators, believes that a dovish Powell could have a clear impact on price momentum.

"A moderate tone reducing the fear of recession could push Bitcoin prices above the 200-day and 21-day moving averages, and prevent the impending death cross between these two important moving averages," part of a post on X stated.

Alan mentioned two nearby simple moving averages, with the 200-day MA at $84,995 and the 21-day MA at $84,350.

Bitcoin 1-day BTC chart with MA 21, 200 | Source: TradingViewOn the other hand, bad news could lead to a retest of the lowest level in several months at $76,000.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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Minh Anh

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