QCP: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week and market volatility will remain elevated

On March 17, QCP released a daily market watch saying that over the weekend, a BTC whale opened a $400 million short position in BTC, which sparked market volatility on Sunday, with some groups trying to push for the liquidation of the 40x highly leveraged position, which could be achieved with just a 2.5% price movement. Despite these efforts, the position has not been liquidated, and nearly $400,000 in funding fees have been paid cumulatively. Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 32 (fear), reflecting continued risk aversion, especially against the backdrop of more pessimistic sentiment in the stock market as a whole. This further strengthens BTC's role as a macro hedging tool. Despite the volatile market sentiment, BTC is still holding above $80,000, showing resilience compared to U.S. stocks. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning, weighed down by rising recession fears. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a recession cannot be ruled out, which is consistent with Trump's previous remarks. The market will be watching the release of US retail sales data tonight to determine whether the 0.9% decline in retail sales in January is an initial sign of a slowdown in consumer spending or simply a pullback after the 2024 holiday season. Due to the lack of a strong narrative drive in the current crypto market, the market focus remains on US stocks. Last week, US CPI data came in lower than expected, briefly easing market nervousness, but the Fed is unlikely to turn dovish in the near term. Rate cut expectations remain uncertain as tariff risks and inflation concerns persist. As a result, we expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, market volatility is expected to remain elevated as the market looks for any clues on the Fed's future policy direction, especially amid uncertainty over Trump's policy changes.