Will 198 million people in the United States be unproductive? Bridgewater Dalio: AI brings a 12 trillion magnesium labor revolution, and the gap between the rich and the poor and the AI bubble are in trouble

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund (BridgeWater), and Marc Benioff, CEO of CRM platform provider Salesforce, were interviewed on 3/15, sharing their views on the monetary system, international geopolitical situation, US debt storm, etc., and said that AI technology will bring new changes on a scale of 12 trillion magnesium.

From monetary systems and politics to geopolitical conflicts, AI reshapes the structure of the economy

Dalio was the first to point out that the three dimensions of monetary system, politics, and international geopolitics make up the "world order" that has undergone many changes throughout history and has been accompanied by major conflicts, such as war, civil strife, or the collapse of the monetary system.

He said that the world is currently in a "period of order transformation" and is affected by five driving forces:

Debt and the Monetary System: Global debt continues to rise, forcing a major adjustment in the monetary system.

Internal political rivalry: The divide between the left and the right has intensified, which could turn into a civil war.

Geopolitical Reshaping: The United States faces emerging power challenges and the global power landscape is changing.

Climate change and natural disasters: Natural disasters, droughts, floods and epidemics affect social order more than war.

Technological Revolution: AI is changing the socio-economic structure, with new risks, such as military applications and job market changes.

AI is transforming the labor market, and the 3 to 12 trillion magnesium revolution is about to begin

Benioff agrees with Dalio, but stresses that the digital labor (Digital Labor) is on the rise and is about to revolutionize the workforce on a scale of $3 to $12. For example, many companies have begun to deploy AI assistant (AI Agent), which not only greatly improves productivity, but also changes the business model.

198 million people in the United States are unproductive, and AI is exacerbating the gap between rich and poor

While AI development presents many opportunities, Dalio also warns that emerging technologies will lead to large-scale industrial upheavals, which could exacerbate social inequality if governments fail to respond effectively.

For example, in the United States, of the 330 million people, the top 1% of innovators and entrepreneurs drive most economic change, and the top 10% also benefit, but 60% of the population is not productive enough, which may cause greater wealth disparity and social unrest. "When the economic dividends brought by AI mainly flow to the top elites, how can society ensure fair development?" Dalio was rather skeptical.

Whether the AI industry bubbles up or not, landing value is the key

When the moderator asked if AI would be like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. Dalio believes that the current investment frenzy in the AI market is similar to the "dot-com bubble" of 1998-99, where people overvalued the market because of the technology outlook and ignored price reasonableness.

Benioff believes that although AI has experienced a "hype period", the key is still how to "land", emphasizing that enterprises should focus on how to really use AI to improve productivity, rather than simply following the trend of investment.

The US economic storm is coming, and the government debt problem is still difficult to solve

As for the U.S. economic outlook, Dalio warned that the imbalance between supply and demand of the US government's debt has reached a critical point, and the US government deficit is currently about 7.2% of GDP, but if it cannot be reduced to 3%, it will face a shortage of funds and rising interest rates, leading to an economic crisis. Here are the solutions Dalio may implement for the government:

Debt restructuring: The United States has reduced debt payments to some countries and reduced its burdens.

Political pressure: Forcing domestic and foreign institutions to buy U.S. Treasuries.

Cut spending: There may be cuts in government subsidies, such as nutritious school lunches, social benefits, etc.

U.S. tariffs affect the world, and AI competition is intense

Dalio recently imposed a 20% tariff on China, to which Dalio responded: "This is just a continuation of the historical pattern." Many countries choose to raise tariffs in times of economic hardship to protect their economies and increase fiscal revenues. When it comes to competition in AI, Benioff believes that the United States is leading in high-end AI chip design, but China's AI chip manufacturing and robotics applications are more advantageous.

Dalio adds that China's current progress in large-scale production and integrated applications is also quite rapid. The two concluded by saying that the world economy, politics and technology are being reshaped, and humanity needs to think about how to respond to this change.

( the United States is extremely divided? Bridgewater Dailo: The gap between the rich and the poor has intensified, and the US-China AI competition has become a new Cold War )

This article Will 198 million people in the United States be unproductive? Bridgewater Dalio: AI brings 12 trillion magnesium labor revolution, the gap between the rich and the poor and the AI bubble first appeared in chain news ABMedia.