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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (02.28 - 03.07)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached $1.88 trillion, a decrease of 5.2% compared to the previous period. The exchange trading volume decreased by 8.3% compared to the previous period, reaching $1.21 trillion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 0.95% to $89,228.31. The overall market is showing a downward trend, and investors are cautious. Major cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, etc., have experienced varying degrees of decline.
Today's market sentiment is fear, with a fear and greed index of 34, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down, while inflation pressures persist. The initial value of the euro area's CPI year-on-year in February was 8.5%, higher than the expected 8.2%, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The US CPI year-on-year in February was 6.0%, higher than the expected 5.8%, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 91%, in May is 50.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 45.3%.
The Producer Price Index PPI ( reflects the pressure of upstream prices transmitting to the consumer end. The eurozone's annual PPI rate in January was 15.1%, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year, higher than expected. The US's annual PPI rate in February was 4.6%, lower than the expected 5.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Upstream price pressures have eased somewhat but remain at high levels.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)) is a leading indicator of the economy. The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was 47.7, lower than the expected 48.5, and has been in contraction for the third consecutive month. The U.S. manufacturing PMI for March was 49.2, slightly lower than the previous value of 49.3, indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector. The services PMI performed well, with the eurozone at 55.6 and the United States at 53.8, both in the expansion zone.
Overall, high inflation, economic slowdown, and a weak job market pose challenges to the cryptocurrency market in the face of adverse macroeconomic conditions. However, signs of a slowing pace of Fed rate hikes and easing inflationary pressures may provide a breathing opportunity for the crypto market.
( 1.3 Financial Weekly Calendar
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Analysis summary:
This week, the focus will be on the U.S. February CPI annual rate data and the Eurozone January industrial output monthly rate. U.S. inflation data will provide important references for the Fed's next interest rate hike decision. Eurozone industrial data reflects the economic recovery situation. In addition, data such as the UK GDP monthly rate, U.S. consumer confidence index, etc., are also worth paying attention to. Furthermore, the U.S. Treasury auction situation, Japan's GDP revised value, etc., will also affect market trends. Overall, macroeconomic data is intensive this week and will play an important guiding role in the global economic outlook.
2. Analysis of Funding Conditions and Price Volatility
( 2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Weekly Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC this week is 3.21%.
Price Volatility and Reasons This week, the price of BTC fluctuated between $85,817.10 and $92,734.90. The price increase is mainly due to the U.S. government's announcement to establish a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, including major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. This measure has boosted investor confidence and driven the price of Bitcoin up.
Changes in Trading Volume and Their Impact The average daily trading volume of BTC this week is approximately $12 million, an increase from last week. The increase in trading volume reflects the higher market activity and increased demand from investors for Bitcoin. Higher trading volumes usually indicate increased price volatility, so investors need to closely monitor market trends.
Market Activity and Potential Price Direction From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC price encountered some resistance around $90,000. If it can effectively break through this resistance level, there is a possibility of further testing the $100,000 mark. However, if it fails to hold the support level of $90,000, a retracement may occur. Overall, market activity has increased, and in the short term, there is still room for Bitcoin price to rise.
) 2.2. Funds Analysis
According to the latest data, the fund flows of major cryptocurrencies such as SOLV, LAYER, and VIRTUAL present different trends. SOLV has continued to net inflow funds in the past two weeks, indicating investors' preference for this currency. At the same time, the inflow of funds for LAYER also remains at a high level, indicating institutional investors' favor for the project.
In contrast, there has been a certain degree of volatility in the fund flow of VIRTUAL. Despite the net outflow on March 7th, the currency has maintained a relatively stable inflow of funds over a longer period, which may reflect the continued attention of retail investors to VIRTUAL.
Overall, the data on the flow of major cryptocurrencies shows high market activity, with strong demand from investors for crypto assets. However, differences in the flow of funds for different currencies also suggest investors' differentiated attitudes towards different projects.
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( 2.3. Smart Money Analysis
BTC Smart Money Trend According to SUI Block Trades data, BTC's recent large-volume transactions have shown a trend of selling first and then buying. From March 4th to 6th, a net outflow of approximately 1747 BTC, worth about $154 million, was observed in large transactions. However, on March 7th, a net purchase of 1314.53 BTC, worth about $117 million, was made in large transactions. This indicates that institutional funds are buying BTC on dips.
ETH Smart Money Trend The large transactions of ETH have recently shown a trend of selling first and then buying. From March 4th to 6th, there was a net outflow of about 1046 ETH in large transactions. However, on March 6th, two whale addresses borrowed 26.38 million USDT from Aave to buy 11,471 ETH. This indicates that institutional funds are buying ETH on dips.
XRP Smart Money Trend The large transaction volume of XRP has recently shown a net buying trend. According to monitoring, whales have bought more than 90 million XRP in the past 72 hours. This indicates that institutional funds are continuously buying XRP.
Predicting the Future Market Trend Overall, institutional funds are buying mainstream currencies such as BTC, ETH, and XRP on dips. This indicates that smart money is betting on the rebound of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, it is expected that mainstream currencies such as BTC, ETH, and XRP will maintain an upward trend of oscillation in the future.
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3. Hot Topics
Based on the data provided, the most frequently discussed hot topics in the past week are the announcement by Trump to establish a Bitcoin reserve and the upcoming White House cryptocurrency summit. Here are the relevant topic reports:
( 🔥Shocking the world! Trump announces establishment of Bitcoin reserve, White House cryptocurrency summit imminent🔥
)# Trump signs executive order to establish Bitcoin reserve
On March 7, 2025, former U.S. President Trump signed a landmark executive order officially announcing the establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. According to the executive order, the reserve funds will only come from bitcoins obtained through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings and will not use taxpayer funds. The bitcoins in the reserve will be treated as a store of value, similar to "digital gold," and the government will not easily sell them.
This decision aims to correct the losses caused by the premature sale of Bitcoin in the past, confirming the U.S. government's recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Market participants believe that this will enhance the legitimacy and value support of Bitcoin, eliminate concerns about government selling pressure in the market, and be conducive to the rise in the price of Bitcoin.
Jeff Anderson, Director of STS Digital in Asia, said: "This gives Bitcoin a similar status as national reserves of gold, propelling it to new heights in the global economy."
The White House's first cryptocurrency summit will be held on March 10th.
It is worth noting that the White House will host the first-ever cryptocurrency summit on March 10, bringing together cryptocurrency leaders and the President's Digital Assets Working Group for discussions. It is expected to address core issues such as decentralization, security, and stability of the digital currency market.
In addition, the summit may also evaluate the inclusion of tokens such as Cardano (ADA), Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL) in the strategic reserves. This move has sparked widespread attention and speculation in the market.
Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Toronto's Corpay, said: "The White House's attention signals the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in the global financial and political system. This provides an open forum for leaders, experts, and founders of top crypto projects to discuss, with the potential to contribute to shaping the future of decentralized financial ecosystems and driving industry development."
The market is experiencing intense fluctuations, and options contracts indicate future turbulence.
Trump's related statement has caused a stir in the crypto community, driving up the Cryptocurrency Volatility Index (CVI). According to the data from Crypto In ###CVI(, the index has risen by 12.50% since early March and is currently at 62.71.
The price of Bitcoin has also experienced sharp fluctuations. Last Sunday, the price of Bitcoin reached a high point of about $95,283.00. However, selling pressure on Tuesday caused the price to drop to $81,740.00, a decrease of about 14.20%. Moreover, in the early morning trading for several hours, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $91,362.00, an increase of nearly 10% from the low point 7 days ago.
"Jeff Anderson further analyzed: "The volatility index of Deri options exchange shows that investors are predicting a sharp price fluctuation over the weekend. Specifically, the difference in volatility of options contracts from Friday to Saturday is ) IV (: with a volatility of about 25 points, the annual volatility of Friday contracts is 56%, while Saturday contracts are as high as 80%. We predict that the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate by about $5,000.00 between Friday and Saturday, with either an uptrend or downtrend being dominant."
)# Investors need to act cautiously
Despite indicators and forecasts showing that the market will experience sharp fluctuations, experts also point out that 'expected large fluctuations often do not reach the extent expected by the market.' Anderson emphasizes that large fluctuations may result in more moderate outcomes because expectations often exceed reality. Therefore, investors need to be cautious and consider using tools such as options to reduce risks during volatile periods.
The White House cryptocurrency meeting is creating a dramatic backdrop for the crypto market. From Trump's announcement about the cryptocurrency reserve strategy to the sharp fluctuations in prices and volatility indices, the market is preparing for an unstable weekend. Investors need to closely monitor technical signals and government announcements to make the right decisions in a situation where risks and opportunities coexist.
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4. Major Events
Trump signs executive order to establish Bitcoin reserve
On March 7, 2025, Trump signed an executive order officially establishing the US strategic Bitcoin reserve. The executive order stipulates that the source of reserve funds is limited to confiscated income and will not use taxpayer funds. The Bitcoin in the reserve will be treated as a store of value and will not be easily sold. This decision aims to correct the losses brought about by the premature sale of Bitcoin in the past.
The first cryptocurrency summit at the White House will be held
2025-03-07 The White House will host the first-ever cryptocurrency summit, bringing together crypto leaders and the President's Digital Assets Working Group. Core issues such as decentralization, security, and the stability of digital currency markets are expected to be discussed. In addition, it is possible to evaluate other potential assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum to contribute to shaping the future of a decentralized financial ecosystem.
Uniswap faces governance crisis
On March 7, 2025, members of the Uniswap community criticized Uniswap Labs for its lack of transparency in launching the new Layer-2 network Unichain, especially in the allocation of 1.655 billion US dollars for the development and liquidity incentives of Unichain, which disrupted governance. UNI token holders expressed disappointment with Uniswap's centralized revenue strategy.
Mutuum Pre-sale is hot
2025-03-07 Mutuum is a decentralized non-custodial liquidity protocol. Its second phase of presale has raised approximately $2.5 million. Analysts predict that once launched, Mutuum may bring about a potential ROI of 15255%.
Belarusian President Instructs Development of Cryptocurrency Mining Industry
On March 7, 2025, Belarusian President Lukashenko instructed the Minister of Energy to start developing the country's cryptocurrency mining industry, using the national energy surplus. This decision was made in the context of the United States considering establishing a national strategic cryptocurrency reserve.
Surge in TRON Network Activity Drives TRON Price Prediction
On 2025-03-07, the active addresses on the TRX network surged to 2.94M on March 4th. Analysts predict that with the network activity reaching a two-month peak, TRX will show a significant upward trend, possibly reaching $1.
XRP Open interest soars
According to CryptoQuant data, the XRP holdings have increased significantly by 5.6% on 2025-03-07. The company has warned that the increasing leverage may imply high volatility risks.
Hemi Staking Platform Attracts $52 Million in Liquidity
On 2025-03-07, the modular protocol Hemi announced that its staking platform Hemi Stake attracted $52 million in liquidity in the 24 hours before the mainnet went live.
US Customs Removes Regulatory Barriers for Chinese Bitcoin Miners
According to reports, US authorities have released thousands of Bitcoin mining equipment seized last year, but tens of thousands of devices are still being held. There are multiple reasons referred to as the reasons for detention.
Qubetics pre-sale amount reaches $14.6 million
Qubetics is a project focusing on interoperability that has raised over $14.6 million in its presale phase, attracting more than 22,200 investors. Analysts predict that the potential ROI after the mainnet launch could reach 15255%.
Stacks smart contract grows by 25%
By enabling smart contracts and decentralized applications on the Bitcoin network, Stacks enhances the functionality of Bitcoin. Data shows that Stacks' smart contracts have grown by 25%.
Cosmos surge
On 2025-03-07, Cosmos is known as the "Internet of blockchains", connecting multiple independent blockchains to enable them to interoperate and share data. Cosmos plays a key role in the decentralized ecosystem.
Ronaldinho launches STAR10 token
On 2025-03-07, Brazilian football legend Ronaldinho launched his own STAR10 coin. He stated that this token is not just a token, but a part of his legacy.
Canary submits S-1 application for AXL ETF
2025-03-07 According to market sources, Canary has filed an S-1 application for its AXL ETF.
Oasys launches token creation platform Yukichi.fun
On March 7, 2025, the blockchain game public chain Oasys announced on social media that it has launched the token creation platform Yukichi.fun. The platform supports users to quickly create personalized tokens using OAS and other tokens.
5. Global Policy
President Trump Signs Executive Order to Establish Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Policy Description
( Impact Analysis
The first White House cryptocurrency summit will be held on March 10th.
) Policy Description
Impact Analysis
Russia currently has no plans to establish a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies
Policy Description
( Impact Analysis
Summary
The latest political developments and economic policies reflect divergent attitudes towards cryptocurrencies around the world. The U.S. government has shown its stance of supporting and embracing digital assets by establishing a strategic reserve for Bitcoin and hosting a cryptocurrency summit, which is expected to drive the development of the industry. Russia, on the other hand, is cautious for the time being and is in no hurry to build up cryptocurrency reserves. The introduction of these policies and regulations will profoundly affect the future direction of the cryptocurrency market.
6. Investment analysis
) 6.1. Investment Recommendation
Disclaimer: These recommendations are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investing carries risks, so please make decisions cautiously.
6.2 Investment Strategy
Analysis of Popular Tokens This Week TARS AI ###TAI###, as an artificial intelligence architecture protocol on Solana, is seen as an attractive buying opportunity in the market downturn. Pepe, as a meme coin, maintains a strong bullish sentiment due to its previous high market value and deflationary token economics despite the price drop. Hedera stands out for its focus on tokenizing financial market assets.
Quantitative Strategy Summary According to the trading bot data, different strategy bots perform differently. The contract grid strategy performs well in high-volatility markets, especially for mainstream currencies such as BTC and ETH. The infinite grid strategy is more suitable for currencies with lower volatility. The spot grid strategy is more robust in medium to low volatility markets. The Martin strategy is suitable for highly volatile markets. The intelligent rebalancing strategy can automatically adjust positions according to market changes and has certain risk management capabilities.
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Summary In general, there are differences in the performance of quantitative strategies in different market environments, and investors need to choose strategies based on their own risk appetite and market judgment. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the parameter setting of the strategy to achieve a good risk control effect.
) 6.3. Financial wealth management products
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4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is derived from publicly available information and we endeavour, but do not guarantee, the complete accuracy of such information. The content of the report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk.
( 6.4. Technical Analysis
Bollinger Band Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices.
Trading Strategy
Backtest Results
According to the above trading strategy, backtest the historical data of ETH, with a backtest time range from January 1, 2023 to March 7, 2025.
Data Analysis
Advantages
Disadvantages
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