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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (02.21 - 02.28)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of digital currencies reached $1.21 trillion, a decrease of 5.78% compared to the previous period. The trading volume of exchanges decreased by 3.21% compared to the previous period, reaching $1.03 trillion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 6.32% to $85,295, and the price of Ethereum fell by 5.13% to $2,255. The market as a whole is showing a downward trend, with investors being more cautious. Major cryptocurrencies have experienced varying degrees of pullback, reflecting market concerns about regulatory policies and the macroeconomy.
Today's market sentiment is extremely fearful, with a fear and greed index of 16. Last week, the market sentiment was greedy, with an index of 55. Last month, the market sentiment was greedy, with an index of 72. Overall, the market sentiment has changed from greed to extreme fear, and investor sentiment has undergone drastic fluctuations.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down, and inflationary pressures persist. The initial annual rate of CPI in the euro zone in February was 8.50%, higher than the expected 8.20%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.80%. The annual rate of PCE price index in the United States in February was 5.40%, higher than the expected 5.30%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.60%. The non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in the United States in February was 6.00%, higher than the expected 5.90%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.40%. The annual rate of PPI in the United States in February was 5.70%, higher than the expected 5.40%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.80%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in March is 95.50%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 75.10%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 23.90%.
Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index continue to rise, reflecting increased inflationary pressures. PMI data shows that the Eurozone's February Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.50, below the expected 49.00, while the Services PMI was 53.00, higher than the expected 52.30. In the United States, the February Manufacturing PMI was 47.80, below the expected 48.00, and the Services PMI was 50.50, below the expected 51.60. PMI data reflects a slowdown in economic activity.
Overall, with high inflation and slowing economic growth, the cryptocurrency market is facing the pressure of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. The Fed is still expected to continue raising interest rates this year to curb inflation expectations. The cryptocurrency market may continue to fluctuate in the short term.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis:
The February ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment Report are the most important economic data of the week, reflecting the current situation of the manufacturing and employment market in the United States, and have a significant impact on the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve.
The revised value of the Eurozone GDP annual rate and the final value of employment are also key indicators, reflecting the economic growth and employment situation of the Eurozone, which will affect the policy direction of the European Central Bank.
Other data such as U.S. wholesale sales, construction spending, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and other secondary indicators will also provide valuable information to the market.
Generally speaking, the economic data released this week will provide important basis for the policy making of major global economies, and the market will closely monitor the direction of these data.
2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Volatility
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Weekly Volatility
Based on the daily closing prices of BTC in the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is 2.25%.
Price changes and reasons This week, the price of BTC fluctuated between $84,227.50 and $98,632.20. The price drop was mainly due to regulatory news and deteriorating market sentiment. News such as the rejection of the Bitcoin ETF application and the rejection of the Bitcoin reserve proposal in Wyoming have intensified investor concerns.
Impact of Trading Volume Changes
Changes in trading volume often indicate price fluctuations. This week, the BTC trading volume has decreased compared to last week, with the highest daily trading volume at $1,247.99 and the lowest daily trading volume at only $69.07. The decrease in trading volume may indicate a decrease in market activity, and price fluctuations are likely to become more stable.
Market Activity and Potential Price Direction
Despite the decrease in trading volume, technical indicators suggest that the market may be preparing for a rebound. The stochastic relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly BTC chart has shown a bullish signal. If this signal is confirmed, the BTC price may rebound in the coming weeks.
( 2.2. Capital Analysis
According to the latest fund flow data, major cryptocurrencies have shown different trends in fund inflows and outflows. Ethereum )ETH### experienced a net outflow of funds in the past week, indicating a cautious investor sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) attracted a large inflow of funds, reflecting investor confidence in its long-term prospects.
Retail investors are gradually reducing their positions in alternative coins and favoring mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. This may be due to increased regulatory pressure and market volatility, leading to a decreased risk appetite.
Institutional investors remain relatively conservative, continuing to increase their positions in mainstream cryptocurrencies. Data shows that their net inflows of funds into Bitcoin and Ethereum have both increased, possibly related to their long-term investment strategies and optimism about the future of blockchain technology.
Overall, despite some volatility in the market, mainstream cryptocurrencies continue to attract a large inflow of funds, which is expected to provide support for future price trends. However, changes in investor sentiment and regulatory conditions may still have an impact on fund flows.
( 2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often predicts the market trend. By analyzing the changes in large volume transactions, we can gain insights into the movements of institutional investors.
BTC Smart Money Analysis
In recent weeks, the volume of large BTC transactions has shown a downward trend, indicating that institutional investors are gradually withdrawing. This may mean that there is a considerable selling pressure on BTC in the short term. However, there is still some support around $85,000, so BTC may oscillate in this range.
ETH Smart Money Analysis
Unlike BTC, ETH has seen an increase in large single transaction volume recently, indicating institutional funds are flowing in. This may bring some support to ETH. However, due to the overall bearish market sentiment, ETH is still struggling to break free from the consolidation pattern in the short term.
Smart Money Analysis of Other Currencies
Except for BTC and ETH, the changes in the large single transaction volumes of other mainstream currencies are not very obvious. This indicates that institutional investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards these currencies. Therefore, the trends of these currencies may be mainly influenced by BTC and ETH.
Overall, the current market sentiment is bearish, and the flow of smart money also shows a certain differentiation. Investors need to closely monitor the changes in large transaction volume to grasp the market trends.
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3. Hot Topics
( The loss rate of Bitcoin miners is skyrocketing, will the shutdown of mining machines trigger a new round of market trends?
)# The Bitcoin miner's loss rate has soared to 61.6%, and the wave of miner shutdowns may trigger a new round of market trends.
According to F2pool data, at a Bitcoin price of about $85,295 and an electricity cost of $0.06 per kWh, 101 out of 164 mainstream mining machines (approximately 61.6%) are operating at a loss. Among them, the electricity cost of Whatsminer M30S+ and Whatsminer M33S+ accounts for nearly 100%, while the Antminer S19 is at the breakeven point. Among the 59 mining machines that are still profitable, 28 have an electricity cost accounting for over 60%, such as the Shenma M33S+ and Shenma M30S+, which are approaching the brink of losses. The latest generation Antminer S21 XP water-cooled version has an electricity cost accounting for only 35%, with a daily net income of $15.25, a shutdown price of $29,768, and the strongest risk resistance capability.
According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin miner sentiment index has dropped to 14.7%, the lowest point since January 2025. Analyst Fournier said, "Although some are worried about the arrival of a bear market, history shows that this kind of correction is common. We maintain a bullish view and expect a recovery in the market before the weekend."
Miner loss rate soaring triggers a new round of market? Institutions are optimistic about Bitcoin ETF applications
Bitcoin prices are facing bearish sentiment in the face of regulatory news. On February 10, the Wyoming legislature rejected a proposal to establish a Bitcoin reserve, which runs counter to the adoption of cryptocurrencies across the United States. Analysts believe that the rejection has made investors worried about stricter regulations, making them more cautious.
At the same time, institutions are optimistic about Bitcoin ETF applications. Asset management companies such as REX Shares and wise have applied to register Dogecoin ETFs. CEO of X company investment stated that the likelihood of Dogecoin ETF approval on PolyMarket has increased to 75%. Analyst Dogegod believes that once the ETF is approved, the price of Dogecoin will reach $1.40.
Bitcoin price trapped in a parallel channel, probing $81,000?
According to Ali Charts analysis, Bitcoin has broken through an important parallel channel, indicating a possible trend change or continuation. The future of Bitcoin depends on whether it can break through $92,500 in the future period, with experts predicting $81,000 to be the next important support level.
Breaking through $92,500 successfully may restore the bullish momentum, pushing the Bitcoin price higher to $95,000 or more. If Bitcoin fails to break through this key resistance level, there is an increasing possibility of reaching the support level of $81,000. According to monitoring data, if Bitcoin reaches $90,000, it may trigger a $3 billion short liquidation; if it reaches $95,000, the liquidation may reach $6 billion, leading to a substantial increase.
Overall, the soaring loss rate of Bitcoin miners, the uncertainty of regulatory news, and the technical turnaround will all have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. The optimistic sentiment of institutions towards the Bitcoin ETF application may serve as a catalyst for a new round of market trends.
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4. Major Events
Recent Major Impact Events
Bitcoin price plummets on 2025-02-28 The price of Bitcoin plummeted to $82,340 on February 28, triggering market panic. Analysts believe that this may be due to the Trump administration's trade policies leading to rising inflation expectations and slowing economic growth. In addition, the rejection of the Bitcoin reserve proposal by the regulatory authorities in Wyoming, USA has also exacerbated market uncertainty.
2025-02-27 Wise applies for Aptos ETF Wise Asset Management Company has applied to register Aptos Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in Delaware. This makes it the first company in the United States to launch investment products based on Aptos. Subsequently, the price of Aptos rose by 13%, reflecting increased interest from institutional investors in the asset.
NVIDIA's financial report exceeds expectations on 2025-02-26 Nvidia has released impressive financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2025, driven by exceptional demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Nonetheless, its stock price fell 3.3% on February 27, reflecting investor concerns about the economic outlook.
2025-02-26 Pump.fun official account hacked According to reports, the official X account of Pump.fun was stolen and used to release the fraudulent token "PUMP". Users need to be aware of the risks.
2025-02-26 LIBRA and MELANIA teams are suspected LIBRA AND MELANIA'S INTERNAL TEAMS ARE ALLEGED TO HAVE LOST ABOUT $2.73 MILLION THROUGH "KNOCK TRADING." This amount is transferred to another wallet in a "legal" way.
2025-02-26 Bitcoin spot ETF sees significant outflows According to SoSoValue data, on February 25, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $50.0841 million, and the grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF ETHE had a net outflow of $27.0656 million, with a total net outflow of $4.040 billion.
2025-02-26 Hackers use GitHub to steal cryptocurrency Security company discovered hackers creating a fake project 'GitVenom' on the GitHub platform, tricking users into downloading malicious software to steal cryptocurrency and credentials.
More than 8.1 million Pumpfun platform tokens will be issued by 2025-02-25 It is disclosed that the total number of tokens issued by the Pumpfun platform has exceeded 8.1 million, the number of participating addresses on the platform exceeds 13.8 million, and the total fee income is nearly 3 million SOL.
2025-02-25 U.S. Congressmen Support Digital Assets U.S. Congressman Byron Donalds announced his candidacy for Governor of Florida and expressed his hope that digital assets will become part of the state's "financial portfolio".
2025-02-24 AI Sector Token Rebound Part of the AI sector tokens have seen a significant rebound, such as SWARMS with a 35.4% increase, ALCH with a 68.6% increase, ANON with a 28.7% increase, etc.
2025-02-24 FORM mining launched on Gate.io Gate.io announced that it will launch Form(FORM) spot trading on February 27 and launch a limited-time FORM mining event with a prize pool of up to $1 million.
Geodnet completes a $8 million financing on 2025-02-23 Decentralized network hardware infrastructure company Geodnet has completed an $8 million strategic financing, led by Multicoin Capital.
2025-02-23 Large outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF According to reports, on February 22, the net outflow of $935 million from the US Bitcoin spot ETF set a new record since the ETF was launched.
2025-02-22 Crypto Market Sector Partially Rebounds According to SoSoValue data, some parts of the cryptocurrency market rebounded, but Bitcoin and Ethereum are still falling, intensifying panic.
2025-02-22 Limited Short-Term Impact of Hacker Attack Data shows that although Bitcoin often falls on the day of a hack attack, the price movements over 7 days and 1 month indicate that the long-term impact of hack attacks is limited.
5. Global Policies
The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as analysis and summary of their impact on the industry and the market, according to the news from February 21st to 28th, 2025.
The U.S. government has differing views on regulating stablecoins
According to reports, Circle and Tether have differences in opinions on the regulation of stablecoins in the United States. Circle believes that stablecoins should be registered and operated in the United States; while Tether believes that USDT is the most successful tool in emerging markets, and its competitors' true intention is to kill Tether.
Impact analysis on the industry:** This divergence reflects the challenges faced by regulators in developing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Strict regulatory measures could limit the use of stablecoins in emerging markets, but could also be beneficial for transparency and user trust. Conversely, overly lax regulation can be risky. The industry needs to balance innovation and risk management.
Brazilian Central Bank Focuses on the Next Steps of Digital Currency DREX
The news reported that the Central Bank of Brazil stated that the next step for the digital currency DREX will depend on the results of the second phase.
Impact Analysis on the Industry: Brazil is one of the largest economies in Latin America, and its central bank's attitude towards digital currencies will have a significant impact on the development of cryptocurrencies in the region. If the DREX project is successful, it may encourage other countries in the region to issue central bank digital currencies. This will lay the foundation for the development of cryptocurrencies in Latin America.
Hong Kong plans to launch a new virtual asset policy in the second quarter
According to reports, the second virtual asset policy manifesto in Hong Kong is expected to be launched in the second quarter of this year. Compared with the SFC's consultation paper, the new policy manifesto will cover a wider scope. Unlike the first policy manifesto, this time there will be more emphasis on promoting market development without regulatory measures. It will also encourage local and international enterprises to explore the innovation and application of virtual asset technology.
Analysis of the impact on the industry: As an international financial center, Hong Kong's policies on virtual asset regulation will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency industry in Asia and globally. The introduction of the new policy is expected to further promote Hong Kong as a blockchain and cryptocurrency innovation hub, attracting more businesses and capital into the field.
Summary: Policies and Regulations
Overall, the above policies and regulations reflect the different attitudes and approaches of governments and regulatory agencies around the world towards the cryptocurrency industry. Some countries and regions are formulating clearer regulatory frameworks to control risks and promote innovation, while others are taking a wait-and-see attitude, closely monitoring industry developments. In any case, the introduction of these policies and regulations will have a profound impact on the future development of the cryptocurrency industry.
6. Investment Analysis
( 6.1. Investment Recommendation
Market trends show that cryptocurrencies related to artificial intelligence and machine learning are receiving a lot of attention. Nvidia's strong financial report has driven the rise of related sectors. In addition, Aptos's ETF application has sparked the interest of institutional investors.
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Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, so please make decisions carefully.
( 6.2 Investment Strategy
Analysis of Popular Tokens this Week
This week's popular tokens include Celestia, aixbt by Virtuals, Quant, Vana, and THORChain. Celestia improves scalability and interoperability through modular blockchain design. aixbt combines artificial intelligence with blockchain technology to provide unique applications for automated solutions. Quant's Over technology establishes cross-chain connections, solving the problem of blockchain interoperability. Vana is committed to providing innovative DeFi services on the blockchain. THORChain provides decentralized asset exchange between various networks. These tokens all reflect the development trends of blockchain technology in scalability, interoperability, and innovative applications.
Trading Robot Strategy Analysis
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Quantitative strategies performed well this week, especially the contract grid strategy, which made considerable gains on BTC and PI. Spot grid and infinite grid strategies are relatively less volatile and have controllable risks. Although the spot martingale strategy is high-risk and high-return, it has also achieved good results in popular currencies such as PI. Overall, grid strategies and martingale strategies are still the main force of quantitative trading this week.
Summary: Popular tokens reflect blockchain innovation, and quantitative strategies have considerable returns
( 6.3. Financial wealth management products
Yubibao After the user subscribes to the surplus coin, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate of the hour according to the lending interest rate set by the user and the actual borrowing demand, and the interest rate of the hour can be obtained if the loan is successful.
The total amount of USDT in the balance treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized yield of 16.65% + 8.87%.
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Financial Management Treasure Wealth Management is a one-stop integrated wealth management service center set up by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed and other financial solutions, providing users with a variety of hundreds of digital currency financial products.
Structured Finance Gate.io structured wealth management is a new type of financial product based on a combination of financial derivatives such as fixed income and options. Generally, the price performance of the target during the investment period is compared with the specified linked price to determine the level of return for settlement, which can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive.
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4. Market Interest Rate
The annotation indicates:
Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please act prudently and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions.
( 6.4. Technical Analysis: ETH Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy Backtesting
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This section will backtest the ETH using the Bollinger Bands trading strategy.
Trading Strategy
Backtest Results
According to the above trading strategy, backtesting of ETH historical data yields the following results:
Data Analysis
Advantages and disadvantages summary
Merit:
Disadvantages:
Overall, the ETH Bollinger Bands trading strategy performed reasonably well during backtesting, but further optimization and improvement are still needed to enhance robustness and profitability.