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AI Weekly Hot Topics Report (02.07 - 02.14)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached $1.22 trillion, an increase of 2.51% compared to the previous period. The exchange trading volume increased by 1.84% compared to the previous period, reaching $1.36 trillion. The price of Bitcoin surpassed the $24,000 mark, with a year-on-year trading volume growth of 3.72%. The market as a whole is showing an upward trend, and investors are optimistic.
According to the Gate.io Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is normal, with a fear and greed index of 48. Compared to yesterday, the market sentiment remains stable. Overall, the market sentiment is in the neutral zone, with no signs of excessive fear or greed.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down, and inflationary pressures persist. In January, the US CPI rose by 6.4% year-on-year, higher than expected, and the core CPI rose by 5.6% year-on-year, both of which did not promptly fall to the 2% target. The initial value of the Eurozone's CPI in February rose by 8.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 8.2%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 85.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in May is estimated to be 34.7%.
The producer price index is a leading indicator of inflationary pressure. In January, the U.S. PPI rose by 6% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.4%, indicating that inflationary pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. In the Eurozone, the January PPI rose by 15.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, higher than expected.
The purchasing managers' index reflects economic momentum. The initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in February was 51.3, and the initial value of the service PMI was 50.5, both slightly higher than expected but still some distance from the ideal expansion range. The initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone in February was 48.5, the initial value of the service PMI was 53, and the composite PMI was 52.3, with manufacturing still in the contraction range.
Overall, high inflation and weak economic recovery, the monetary policies of various economies still face significant pressure. Cryptocurrencies as a new asset class, their price fluctuations may continue to be affected by the macroeconomic environment.
1.3 Financial Weekly Calendar
Focus on the following high-importance and medium-importance economic data:
The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for February in the United States (high importance): It reflects the level of confidence of American consumers in the economic outlook, which is an important indicator for future consumption expenditures and economic growth.
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance in the United States up to the week of February 15th (high importance): Reflects the employment market conditions, with significant impact on economic outlook.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February in the United States (of medium importance) reflects the manufacturing activity, which is a key pillar of the US economy.
Eurozone February Consumer Confidence Preliminary Value (Medium Importance): Reflects the level of consumer confidence in the economic outlook in the Eurozone, affecting consumer spending and economic growth.
Overall, this week will see the release of a number of important economic data, including employment, consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, etc., and the market will closely watch the implications of these data on the economic outlook of major economies.
2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Fluctuations
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC's volatility this week is 2.15%. The closing price last Friday (February 7th) was $96,511.90, and this Friday (February 14th) the closing price was $96,466.30, with a weekly decline of 0.05%.
Price fluctuations reasons: Bitcoin price has been relatively stable this week. The main reasons are investors' mixed reactions to US inflation data, combined with regulatory uncertainty. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains positive as institutional investors continue to see the investment value of Bitcoin.
Trading Volume Impact: According to data, the average daily trading volume of BTC this week is $27.8 billion, an increase of 6.9% from last week. The increase in trading volume reflects the higher market activity, and the demand for Bitcoin from investors has increased.
Market Activity and Price Direction: From the perspective of the increasing trading volume, the market activity has improved. However, the low price volatility indicates that market participants are still adopting a wait-and-see attitude. If the trading volume can continue to grow, it will create favorable conditions for price increases.
2.2. Capital Analysis
Based on the fund flow data, we can observe the inflow and outflow of funds for major cryptocurrencies. As the leader of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's fund flow often reflects the overall market sentiment.
Retail Investor Behavior From the data, retail investors have shown a relatively cautious attitude in the past week. Inflow of funds is relatively limited, reflecting their certain doubts about the current market. However, there is no sign of large-scale capital outflow, indicating that they have not completely lost confidence.
Institutional Investor TrendsMeanwhile, institutional investors are showing a more optimistic stance. Data shows that the net inflow of funds for some major cryptocurrencies remains positive. This indicates that institutional investors are gradually increasing their positions, believing that the current prices are attractive.
Market Activity Analysis From the overall capital flow, the market activity is relatively moderate. There has been no sharp fluctuation in funds, reflecting investors' cautious optimism about the current situation. Prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term, but if funds continue to flow in, there is hope for a new round of upward trends.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often foreshadows the market trend. By analyzing the changes in large transaction volumes, we can gain insights into the movements of institutional funds.
Bitcoin
In recent weeks, the trading volume of large Bitcoin orders has increased, indicating that institutional buying is gradually entering the market. Although there may be profit-taking in the short term, institutions with a positive long-term outlook are still accumulating at low levels. The selling pressure of Bitcoin is slightly less than the support force, and the future may continue the pattern of oscillating upward.
Ethereum The recent large transaction volume of Ethereum has slightly decreased, reflecting the temporary wait-and-see attitude of some institutional funds. However, overall, the development prospects of the Ethereum ecosystem are still optimistic. It is expected that large funds will buy on dips during the pullback, and Ethereum's support strength still holds the advantage.
Other Currencies
In addition to BTC and ETH, some popular altcoins have also attracted the attention of institutional funds. For example, the large single transaction volume of public chain projects such as Solana and Cardano has increased, showing that institutions are full of expectations for the development of these ecosystems.
Overall, the flow of smart money indicates that the market remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the long-term positive trend may continue.
3. Hot topics
Based on the data provided, the most frequently discussed hot topic in the past week is Berachain (BERA). Here is a brief report on this topic:
Berachain encountered "shipping gate" questioning, token price plummeted over 5%
Backpack wallet added support, but ecological construction questioned
Recently, the most noteworthy thing about Berachain is that the Backpack wallet has added support for Berachain, which will to some extent have a positive impact on the BERA price. However, recently, there have been some doubts about the ecological construction and token economic model of Berachain, and the market sentiment is relatively pessimistic.
According to on-chain data analysis, the most noteworthy point is that Berachain allows VCs to pledge unlocked tokens, founders to sell on-chain, and other operations, triggering strong FUD sentiment in the market. Crypto researcher @hmalviya9 analyzed the valuation of the Berachain project, estimating that raising 34.3% of the supply for VCs valued at $142 million. It is speculated that the average entry price for VCs is around $0.82, predicting that BERA's bullish price will range between $10.00-15.00 and bearish price between $5.00-10.00.
BERA price fluctuates sharply, investors' sentiment is cautious
Affected by the above-mentioned doubts, the price of BERA has experienced drastic fluctuations in the past week. According to data, as of 10 a.m. on February 14th, BERA was priced at $5.55, a decrease of 5.30% within 24 hours. On social media, many investors have also raised doubts and concerns about Berachain's token economic model and ecosystem development.
Crypto Insiders analyst Sam Lee said:"The practice of Berachain allowing VCs to pledge unlocked tokens carries certain risks, which may affect token supply and price stability. In addition, the behavior of co-founders offloading on the chain has also triggered investors' distrust."
CoinDesk senior reporter Jennifer Ouellette takes a wait-and-see attitude: "As a new public chain project, Berachain's token economic model and ecological construction are still in the early stages, and we need more time to observe. But indeed, some of the current operations have raised some concerns for investors."
Overall, Berachain has encountered the 'shipping gate' questioning and the token BERA price has fluctuated significantly in the past week. Investors maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude towards its ecological construction and token economic model, and look forward to the project party giving reasonable explanations and improvement measures.
4. Major events
Recent Major Impact Events
Key personnel appointments of the Trump administration on 2025-02-14 President Trump's nomination of Anderson Holowitz's Quintenz as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates an interest in blockchain technology. Quintenz, who has previously worked at the CFTC, is expected to push the agency to support cryptocurrency regulation. This appointment is expected to bring positive policies to the cryptocurrency industry.
2025-02-14 Baidu Free Open Ernie Bot Baidu announced that it will provide free access to its flagship artificial intelligence chatbot Ernie Bot from April 1st. This is aimed at reducing the cost of reasoning and competing with rivals like OpenAI's ChatGPT. Baidu's stock price subsequently rose by 5.7%, reflecting the market's recognition of its AI strategy.
2025-02-14 OpenSea expands cryptocurrency trading NFT marketplace OpenSea has launched an upgraded platform OS2, allowing users to trade crypto tokens on the new chain. OpenSea also plans to airdrop SEA tokens to reward loyal users, in order to attract more users to join its cryptocurrency ecosystem.
2025-02-13 Conflux Network Parameter Voting Mechanism Conflux network outlines its parameter voting mechanism, users can obtain voting rights by pledging CFX, influencing network parameter adjustments. The 14th round of voting resulted in adjustments to PoW block rewards, interest rates, and other parameters, reflecting on-chain DAO governance in practice.
2025-02-12 Riot transformation artificial intelligence and high-performance computing Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms announced that it is exploring the field of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to cope with the pressure of declining Bitcoin mining profits. The company will use its existing facilities to support AI computing tasks and achieve business diversification.
2025-02-11 Nasdaq Cryptocurrency Index ETF Goes Live with Hash Asset management company Hash launched the Nasdaq cryptocurrency index ETF in the United States, providing investors with a tool for broad exposure to the crypto market. The ETF will initially include Bitcoin and Ethereum, with more cryptocurrencies to be added later.
2025-02-10 Nakamoto Games Enters Google Play Nakamoto Games revealed that its supported Play2Earn games will be showcased on the new PC gaming platform on Google Play, marking the penetration of the GameFi industry into mainstream platforms.
2025-02-09 Injective launches S&P 500 Index Injective Network deployment proposal, launching the first on-chain Standard & Poor's 500 index, scheduled to be released on February 10th if approved, providing new investment tools for institutional investors.
aiPump launches DeFAI product on 2025-02-08 aiPump will launch a new product DeFAI on February 8th, which introduces AI interface for cryptocurrency activities, allowing DeFi operations to be conducted using natural language commands, demonstrating the application prospects of AI in the DeFi field.
2025-02-07 BONK announces token burn The Meme project BONK announced that it will destroy about $36.45 million worth of BONK tokens in February, accounting for 3.64% of the circulating supply, in order to maintain the token's value.
2025-02-07 MicroStrategy changes its name to Strategy The world's largest Bitcoin company MicroStrategy has been renamed Strategy, and the new logo includes a "B" representing Bitcoin strategy. The main color is orange, representing energy and Bitcoin, highlighting the company's emphasis on Bitcoin.
2025-02-06 Tether denies launching its own blockchain Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino denies launching his own blockchain network to address Tether's relationship with other blockchains.
2025-02-06 OpenAI Co-founder Resigns OpenAI co-founder John Schulman has once again resigned from Anthropic, reflecting the talent mobility in the field of artificial intelligence.
2025-02-06 ChatGPT search function open OpenAI announced that the search function of ChatGPT is now open to all users, no registration required, expanding the user base of ChatGPT.
2025-02-06 Arkham collaborates with Sonic Labs Arkham announced a partnership with Sonic Labs that will allow Sonic users to use Arkham's advanced features to reflect ecosystem synergies between blockchain projects.
5. Global Policies
Based on news from February 7 to 14, 2025, here are the new political developments, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as an analysis of the impact on the industry and the market:
Texas Advances Cryptocurrency Investment Bill
The state of Texas amended SB 21 to remove the $500 million cap on Bitcoin purchases, allowing for broader investment in crypto assets. The bill stipulates that cryptocurrencies must have a market capitalization of $500 billion within a year to qualify for state government reserves.
Impact Analysis:
The U.S. Congressional Research Service Raises Policy Issues
The Congressional Research Service of the United States released a report, raising some policy issues for Congress to consider, including whether to allow cryptocurrency companies direct access to the Fed's discount window and master accounts. The report also involves issues such as banks participating in cryptocurrency business, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies.
Impact Analysis:
Brazilian lawmakers propose to allow funds to invest in cryptocurrencies
A Brazilian congressman has proposed a new bill that suggests approving fund investments in cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin purchases to meet the demand and interest of investment funds in cryptocurrencies, promoting financial innovation and competition.
Impact Analysis:
SEC proposes retrospective token issuance relief measures
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ( SEC ) may provide retroactive token issuance relief measures for cryptocurrency companies and projects with specific characteristics. Projects with practical use cases such as DeFi, L2 scaling solutions, etc. may benefit.
Impact Analysis:
In summary, the recent dynamic of policies and regulations mainly focus on several aspects: government agencies' cryptocurrency investments, banking business supervision, fund investment access, compliant token issuance, etc. These dynamics will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency industry, pushing it further into the traditional financial system.
6. Investment Analysis
( 6.1. Investment Recommendation
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Please note that the above suggestions are based on current market analysis, not financial advice. Investment carries risk, so please enter the market cautiously.
( 6.2 Investment Strategy
Analysis of popular tokens this week
This week's popular tokens include BlockDAG )BDAG###, Dogecoin (DOGE), Stellar (XLM), and Render (RNDR). BlockDAG's presale was a great success, with an investment return rate as high as 2340%, making it an excellent choice for long-term investment. Dogecoin benefits from whale accumulation trend and has active trading. Stellar has shown outstanding performance in practical applications and has considerable growth potential. Render, on the other hand, has been attracting attention due to the increasing demand for artificial intelligence and cloud rendering services.
Trading Bot Strategy Analysis
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Summary: This week, quantitative strategies show a trend of diversification, including aggressive strategies that pursue high returns, as well as stable strategies with controllable risks, and investors can choose according to their own risk appetite.
( 6.3. Financial wealth management products
Simple Earn
After the user subscribes to the surplus coin, each hour will be determined by the system according to the lending interest rate set by the user and the actual borrowing demand to determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate of the hour, the interest of the hour can be obtained if the loan is successful, if the lending failure caused by the set interest rate is too high and the user who redeems the funds before the judgment on the hour cannot get interest.
The total amount of USDT in the balance treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized yield of 16.65% + 8.87%.
! [])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-d8289fca63-153d09-d8d215.webp###
Wealth Management
The Financial Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center set up by Gate.io, including current, fixed-term, and all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products of multiple types.
Structured Financial Management
Gate.io structured financial management is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. It generally determines the level of settlement income by comparing the performance of the underlying asset during the investment period with the specified trigger price, and can be divided into two types: principal-guaranteed and aggressive.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors need to be cautious. Please do your own research and assess the risks before making any investment decisions.
( 6.4. Technical Analysis
Bollinger Band Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions by the standard deviation of the price. The indicator consists of one middle )SMA### and two middle lines located above and below the middle band.
Trading Strategy
Backtest Results
Based on the above trading strategy, the historical data of ETH is backtested, and the backtesting period is from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2024.
Data analysis
Summary of Advantages and Disadvantages
Merit:
Disadvantages:
Generally speaking, Bollinger Bands trading strategy operation is relatively simple, but in practical application, it also needs to be combined with other analytical tools to improve trading efficiency and yield.