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AI Weekly Hot Topics Report (01.24 - 01.31)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.44 trillion, an increase of 1.23% compared to the previous period. The trading volume of exchanges increased by 2.87%, reaching $144.252 billion. The price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $103,960.86 with a slight decrease in trading volume. The overall market has shown a slight upward trend, but trading activity has decreased and market sentiment is cautiously optimistic.
According to Gate.io's Fear and Greed Index, the market sentiment today is greedy, with a Fear and Greed Index of 75. Compared to last week and last month, the overall market sentiment remains greedy, with the index slightly increasing. This indicates that investors have a relatively high level of optimism towards the current market.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down, and inflation pressure continues. The euro area's CPI rose by 8.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 8.4%, reaching a historical high. The U.S. CPI rose by 6.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 6.2%, and the core CPI rose by 5.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.5%. This means that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
The preliminary value of the US Manufacturing PMI in January was 46.8, lower than the previous value of 48.6, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing. The preliminary value of the Eurozone Composite PMI in January was 49.7, lower than the previous value of 49.8, reaching a 23-month low. This indicates insufficient global economic growth momentum.
The current market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in March, with the interest rate range reaching 4.75%-5%. The ECB may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, with the interest rate reaching 3.25%. Global monetary policy continues to tighten, putting pressure on risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market is expected to be under pressure in the short term.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis Summary:
2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Fluctuations
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC's volatility this week is 2.14%. The price of BTC showed a trend of first suppression and then rise this week. At the beginning of the week, affected by bearish news, the price once fell to around $103,000. Subsequently, driven by bullish factors, the price rose again, reaching a peak of $107,500.
Trading Volume Analysis This week, the BTC trading volume was initially suppressed and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the trading volume was low, and market activity was not high. As the price stabilized and rebounded, the trading volume gradually increased. The trading volume reached the peak of this week on Thursday, indicating an enhanced market activity.
Analysis of Price Fluctuations BTC prices this week were initially suppressed by negative news, but later rose due to positive factors from multiple parties. Negative news includes doubts from some institutions about the speculative nature of digital assets and regulatory policy uncertainties. Positive factors include continuous inflow of institutional funds and support from the Trump administration for cryptocurrencies.
Market Outlook Overall, BTC maintained high volatility this week. The increase in trading volume indicates enhanced market activity and a dominant bullish force. However, the uncertainty of regulatory policies remains a major risk. It is important to closely monitor the direction of policies in the future.
2.2. Funding Analysis
According to the latest fund flow data, algorithmic coin ALGO, virtual currency VIRTUAL, FET and other cryptocurrencies have shown a net inflow of funds in recent days. Among them, ALGO had a net inflow of funds as high as $18.71 million on January 24th, and VIRTUAL had a net inflow of funds of -$12.36 million on the same day.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies such as SOL and SOLV saw varying degrees of net outflows. Data shows that on January 24, net outflows of funds from SOL amounted to $30.4508 million, while net outflows from SOLV reached as high as $143.9461 million on the same day.
Overall, the market liquidity has increased, but there is a divergence in performance among different cryptocurrencies. Investors' divergent attitudes towards risk assets may further influence future price trends.
Institutional investors' capital flows are worthy of close attention. Standard Chartered Bank's report pointed out that institutional capital inflows may drive the mid-term recovery of the crypto market, and it is recommended that investors seize the current opportunity to layout at a low level.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
BTC large fund movements
According to the data, BTC has experienced a large liquidation in the past 24 hours, with the liquidation amount of long positions reaching up to 144 million US dollars. This indicates that large funds are gradually withdrawing from the long positions of BTC, and it is expected that BTC will face significant selling pressure in the near future.
ETH Major Fund Movements Unlike BTC, ETH has recently shown a net inflow of large funds. Data shows that the holding amount of ETH in large wallets has continued to rise in the past week, and it is expected to receive funding support in the near future.
Overall Analysis From a holistic perspective, large funds have shown mixed sentiments towards the cryptocurrency market. BTC is facing selling pressure, while ETH is receiving fund support. This may indicate a rotation of funds in the market, with investors gradually exiting BTC long positions and turning to other cryptocurrencies such as ETH.
3. Hot Topics
The Cryptocurrency Carnival of the Trump Era: TRUMP Coin Ignites a New Wave in the Coin Circle
President Trump personally issues coins, and the coin circle is experiencing another "crazy moment"
In January 2025, President Trump personally issued the TRUMP token, triggering a new round of frenzy in the cryptocurrency world. This presidential commemorative coin attracted a lot of investors' attention in just a few days, and its market value soared to an astronomical figure of $14.5 billion.
According to data from Chainalysis, the first four wallets to receive funds after the creation of the TRUMP token received the majority of the funds, which were used for holding or providing liquidity to exchanges. While most wallets holding TRUMP were retail buyers with balanced inflows and outflows, about 50 whales realized profits of over $10 million at the wallet level.
In addition to the TRUMP token, Melania Trump has also launched her own Meme coin MELANIA. According to social media discussion data, the MELANIA token has sparked 1347 related discussions, with 283 being optimistic about the prospects of the coin and 72 holding a pessimistic view.
ARK Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood said, "I'm not too sure about the practicality of TRUMP coin, but Trump is leading the next stage of the cryptocurrency revolution."
The Trump administration is fully committed to promoting the development of cryptocurrencies.
To further promote the development of the cryptocurrency industry, the Trump administration has taken a series of significant measures:
Trump signed an executive order to establish the "President's Working Group on the Digital Asset Market" within the White House, led by 'AI and cryptocurrency czar' David Sacks. The working group will assess the possibility of establishing a national digital asset reserve.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has established a new Digital Assets Committee, chaired by Senator Cynthia Lummis, who proposed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" bill, focusing on legislation related to digital assets, including the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Trump appointed former Goldman Sachs banker Gary Cohn as the 'digital asset czar' in charge of overseeing the comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework.
**The latest report from Deutsche Bank pointed out that the outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic. It is expected that by 2025, the political turmoil in the United States and the regulatory environment will continue to support its price, and institutional adoption and the Fed's loose monetary policy will provide assistance.
Cryptocurrencies are becoming mainstream, and institutional investors are flocking in.
With strong support from the Trump administration, cryptocurrencies are rapidly integrating into the mainstream financial system. The director of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank predicts that institutional capital inflows will drive Bitcoin and Ethereum prices to reach $200,000 and $10,000 respectively by the end of 2025.
Chris Taylor, an executive at the New York Stock Exchange, also said that more crypto companies are expected to conduct IPOs. BlackRock CEO Fink publicly stated his hope for the SEC to approve tokenization of bonds and stocks.
Even though Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn criticized the speculative rise of meme coins, he also acknowledged, "There's nothing to stop the introduction of more tradable tokens, and no one knows what will happen next, but it feels like it's going to be crazy."
4. Main Events
Major Event Review
2025-01-23 Trump signs executive order President Trump has signed an executive order to establish a "Digital Asset Market Task Force" directly under the President, chaired by crypto czar David Sacks. The task force will develop a regulatory framework for digital assets, evaluate the creation of a "National Strategic Digital Asset Reserve", and prohibit institutions from taking action to establish central bank digital currencies. The order aims to strengthen the United States' leadership position in the digital finance sector.
2025-01-23 Suspected hacking of Phemex hot wallet According to Cyvers Alerts, large amounts of funds from Phemex's hot wallet have suspiciously flowed out, with digital assets worth more than $29 million transferred across multiple chains through suspicious addresses. PeckShield also discovered abnormal outflows of funds from Phemex's hot wallet. Phemex has not yet responded to this matter.
2025-01-23 Plume integrated Opentrade The flagship staking protocol Nest of Plume Network has integrated the RWA lending and stablecoin platform Opentrade. This integration will enable Nest users to deposit stablecoins to earn profits, and borrow RWA assets, further expanding the application scenarios of the Plume ecosystem.
Fasanara launches tokenized fund on 2025-01-23 The UK asset management company Fasanara Capital has launched the tokenized currency market fund FAST based on the Polygon blockchain, aiming to provide liquidity solutions for stablecoin issuers, DeFi protocol treasuries, and crypto funds, offering a 4.7% return.
2025-01-23 Jump sues former employee Jump Trading has filed a lawsuit against its former software engineer Liam Heeger, accusing him of violating a non-compete agreement by operating a new company that "directly competes with Jump". Jump alleges that this violates his contractual obligations.
2025-01-23 Verasity extends staking plan Adtech protocol Verasity announced that its VeraWallet staking program will be extended until March 31, 2026. From April 1, 2025, the annualized staking yield of VRA will be maintained at 15%.
2025-01-23 Deutsche Bank is bullish on Bitcoin A recent report by Deutsche Bank pointed out that the outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic. It is expected that by 2025, the political turmoil and regulatory environment in the United States, the level of institutional adoption, and the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will all provide support for it. The Trump administration's support for cryptocurrency is also a key factor in the ongoing bull market.
2025-01-23 Polymarket predicts Trump's approval of BTC reserves The probability of President Trump approving the strategic Bitcoin reserve within the first 100 days of his term has dropped to 30% on Polymarket. Currently, the betting amount for this event has reached nearly $3.5 million.
2025-01-23 Brighty focuses on USDT payment According to a report from the American digital financial platform Brighty, by 2024, USDT will account for 85% of its total cryptocurrency deposits and become the second largest savings asset, with TRC-20 USDT transactions accounting for over 60%.
2025-01-23 Standard Chartered Bank Predicts BTC/ETH Prices The head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank said that institutional funds may drive up the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum. By the end of 2025, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum may reach $200,000 and $10,000 respectively.
2025-01-23 Sonic Mainnet Integration of Chainlink Sonic Labs announced the integration of the Chainlink cross-chain interoperability protocol (CCIP) into its mainnet, allowing developers on the Sonic blockchain to leverage Chainlink's advanced infrastructure to create DApps.
Surge in deBridge Trading Volume on 2025-01-23 The deBridge team, together with Solana and HyperLiquidX, is absorbing liquidity and launching a comprehensive acceleration mode. In just 5 days, its trading volume has grown rapidly, with a record daily trading volume of 201 million US dollars.
2025-01-23 IOTX listed on VirgoCX IOTX is listed on the top compliant trading platform VirgoCX in Canada. VirgoCX is a compliant trading platform under Canadian legal supervision, serving over 5 million registered users in Canada.
2025-01-23 AI16Z receives a huge whale's increase holding Recently, the whale increased its holdings of 2.31 million AI16Z tokens in just three days, with a purchase price of $0.83 per token, demonstrating strong market interest in the token.
2025-01-23 TON Foundation Welcomes New Leader TON Foundation appoints new president Manuel Stotz to promote TON's expansion and strategic development in the US market, accelerate the development of decentralized technology, and reach a cooperation agreement with Telegram.
5. Global Policies
The following is a summary and analysis of new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as their impact on the industry and markets, based on news from January 17th to 24th, 2025.
1. US President Trump Signs Executive Order on Cryptocurrencies
Description: Trump signed an executive order to establish the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, aiming to strengthen the United States' leadership in the digital finance field. The working group will develop a federal regulatory framework, including stablecoin regulation and a feasibility assessment for a national digital asset strategic reserve.
Impact analysis: This move indicates a more friendly and supportive attitude of the US government towards cryptocurrencies. A clear regulatory framework is expected to eliminate industry uncertainty, attract more institutional investors, and promote the development of the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, if the US establishes a strategic reserve of digital assets, it will further enhance the position of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
2. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will develop a regulatory framework for digital assets
Description: The Trump administration appointed Paul Atkins as chairman of the SEC, and the SEC will establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, indicating a shift towards a regulatory-friendly direction for innovation.
Impact analysis: The SEC's establishment of a clear regulatory framework will set rules for the cryptocurrency industry, eliminate regulatory gaps, attract institutional investors, and promote the healthy development of the industry. It will also promote the launch of innovative products such as cryptocurrency derivatives and tokenized securities.
3. The US government temporarily postpones the launch of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)
Description: Trump's executive order prohibits federal agencies from promoting or issuing CBDC.
Impact Analysis: Postponing the launch of CBDC is conducive to maintaining the competitive advantage of existing cryptocurrencies in the short term. However, in the long run, if other major economies introduce CBDC, it may pose a challenge to existing cryptocurrencies.
Description: The Trump administration revoked the previous government's executive orders and Treasury Department international framework related to digital assets, calling them inhibiting innovation and weakening America's economic freedom and global leadership.
Impact Analysis: This move removes regulatory barriers for the cryptocurrency industry and creates a more free and favorable development environment. It is conducive to attracting domestic and foreign innovative projects to develop in the United States.
Summary: In early 2025, the U.S. government introduced a series of policies and regulations to support the development of the cryptocurrency industry, including the establishment of a working group to formulate regulatory frameworks, the appointment of close associates to lead the SEC, the postponement of the launch of CBDC, and the revocation of the previous government's restrictive policies. These measures will eliminate uncertainty for the industry, attract institutional funds, promote innovative development, and are expected to usher in a new period of prosperity for the cryptocurrency market.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, please make decisions cautiously.
6.2 Investment Strategy
This week's popular tokens include Meme coins such as TRUMP, MELANIA, VINE, etc. From a technical perspective, the price of TRUMP has broken through the $42 mark, with an intraday increase of over 12%, but the MACD indicator shows no clear trend. The price of MELANIA has dropped by over 9%, losing upward momentum. VINE's price has exceeded a market value of $300 million, with high trading activity, but there are suspicions of internal trading manipulation. Overall, the prices of these Meme coins fluctuate dramatically, and there is a strong speculative atmosphere. Investors need to be cautious.
This week's quantitative strategy summary
Quantitative Strategy Summary
6.3. Financial Wealth Management Products
What is Yu'ebao Gate Yield brings together users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After subscribing to Gate Yield, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for each hour based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing needs. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour. If the loan fails due to a high lending rate setting and users redeem their funds before the hourly determination, they will not receive any interest.
How is the interest income of Yubibao calculated? Gate Yield supports users to customize interest rates. Users can set the minimum lending rate when subscribing. After the whole point judgment, the interest is calculated according to the determined rate. If the funds are successfully loaned at the whole point T, users can receive interest from time T to T+1. If the funds are redeemed before the whole point judgment of T+1, there will be no interest for that hour. The interest generated per hour will be automatically reinvested, and the principal and interest can be redeemed together when redeemed.
What is the financial management treasure? The Wealth Management Center is a one-stop comprehensive wealth management service center established by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed-term, and all other wealth management schemes, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products of various types.
What are the investment periods for locked and unlocked financial management? Locking financial management requires locking for a period of time, including regular financial management, dual currency treasure, structured financial management, and currency financial management. Flexible participation in non-lockup financial management, supports on-demand withdrawal, including active currency management and balance treasure.
How to calculate and distribute interest/earnings? Participating in different financial products may have different yield rules. The income will be calculated based on the specified annual interest rate, and the distribution time varies depending on the product.
What is structured finance? Gate.io structured financing is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. It generally determines the level of settlement income based on the relationship between the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period and the specified trigger price, and can be divided into two types: principal-guaranteed and aggressive. Users can purchase products with specified investment periods based on their required yield, base currency, etc. Generally, settlement and redemption of principal and interest are carried out at maturity, and early redemption is not allowed (specifically depending on the product type).
What are the rules for interest calculation and redemption? Subscribing to different financial products may have different interest calculation and redemption rules. Taking the Shark Fin product as an example, the final yield calculation will be conducted upon maturity and the profit will be distributed to the spot account. The annualized yield of the settlement at the final stage will be determined based on the relationship between the performance of the underlying observed price and the price range during the entire investment period.
What are the risks of structured financial management? According to different product rules, the annualized yield of interest is determined by comparing the observed price of the underlying asset with the specified reference price. When the market fluctuates greatly, it is difficult to grasp the relationship between the two, and there is a possibility of settlement at a lower interest rate. In addition, there is a certain risk of principal loss.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: Any data, quotes, and other information referenced in the above content are sourced from publicly available internet resources, and do not represent the views or positions of this company, nor do they constitute any investment advice. This company is not responsible for any losses caused by the use of such information.
6.4. Technical Analysis
Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Backtesting
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions based on the standard deviation of prices. This backtest adopts the following trading strategy:
According to this trading strategy, the historical data of ETH was backtested, and the backtesting results are as follows:
Data Analysis:
Advantages:
Cons:
In general, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy has a certain reference value for short-term and medium-term operations of ETH, but it also needs to be combined with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to reduce risks. Investors also need to make appropriate adjustments according to their own risk preferences in actual operations.