The ceasefire has just taken effect, and Israel has bombed Lebanon again. Will the demand for BTC and gold safe-haven rise again?

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, mediated by the United States and France, just took effect on the 27th, and there was an exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah this week, and the ceasefire protocol is on the verge of rupture, which may rekindle market safe-haven demand. (Synopsis: Israel and Hezbollah reach ceasefire agreement!) Gold and BTC both fell, and the hedging market is over? (Background added: Hezbollah hundreds of "heavy rockets" retaliate with Israeli air strikes, gold soared to 2,721 mg) The ceasefire agreement between Israel in the Middle East and Hezbollah, a Shiite armed group in Lebanon, officially came into effect on the 27th, but this week both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire agreement mediated by the United States and France seems to be on the verge of breaking down, if the fighting between the two sides resumes. May re-boost safe-haven demand in the market. According to Agence France-Presse and Al Jazeera, Israel's air strike on southern Lebanon today (3) killed at least 11 people and seriously threatened the ceasefire protocol. The Israeli side claimed that it had launched the attack to deter the threat because Hizbollah portable rocket launchers had been detected in the area that might be linked to military activity. On the same day, Hezbollah fired two shells at Israeli military posts in the Israeli-controlled Mount Dov area of the border area, saying it was a warning of repeated Israeli violations of the ceasefire protocol. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a statement that the Hezbollah attack caused no casualties but was a serious violation of ceasefire protocols. It was stressed that Israel is determined to maintain the ceasefire protocol, but will respond to any violations by Hezbollah. Israel and Lebanon only reached a ceasefire agreement last week, which stipulates that Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days and transfer border control to Lebanese government forces, preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding military forces in the area. Hezbollah will withdraw from its position in southern Lebanon and move north of the Litani River, and Hezbollah's new leader Naim Qassem also promised on the 30th to cooperate with the Lebanese military and implement the terms of the ceasefire protocol. But just days after the protocol came into effect, the two sides exchanged fire, and Nabih Berri, the mediator of the Lebanese parliament, today accused Israel of violating the ceasefire protocol for as many as 54 violations, including the demolition of houses in border villages, the continuous overflight of reconnaissance drones and airstrikes that caused casualties. He called on the United States and France to intervene urgently against Israel. That has raised concerns about whether the seemingly fragile ceasefire protocol will break down, though both Israel and Lebanon told the White House on Monday that they are committed to the ceasefire protocol and want to maintain it, despite the recent clashes on the border. Read more: Israel and Hezbollah reach ceasefire agreement! Gold and BTC both fell, and the hedging market is over? Trump's tariff war threatens to strengthen the US dollar, weakening gold Gold and BTC prices weakened last week as safe-haven demand cooled due to a ceasefire in Israel, but market concerns about the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war continued to support demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, and gold prices continued to fluctuate above $2,600. Reuters reported that gold spot fell on Monday, ending a four-day winning streak, and the reason for market analysis was because Trump said that the BRICS countries would "face 100% tariffs" if they tried to get rid of the dollar, resulting in a sharp strengthening of the dollar, which in turn put pressure on gold prices. Last week, Trump also threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, raising fears of a potential global trade war. In addition, the long-term rise in inflation led by Trump's leadership and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November FOMC meeting also showed that officials tend to take a more cautious approach to rate cuts, raising concerns that the US Intrerest Rate will remain high for an extended period of time, further unsettling the metals market. These headwinds have led to a 3% drop in gold prices in November, the biggest monthly decline since September 2023. BMI analysts said in the note: "We note strong downside risks to gold in 2025 and expect significant fluctuations as we may see the Fed taking a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, which is negative for gold." Source: TradingView Middle East conflict heats up safe-haven demand again However, with Israel's recent expansion of bombing of the Gaza Strip and the breakdown of a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may bring back market safe-haven demand. Gold and BTC, which are regarded as safe-haven functions, are expected to be driven by safe-haven buying. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, analyzes: "Gold prices are supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. He said that the downside is limited and the gold market is expected to consolidate at the end of the year." For now, the overall economy remains shrouded in uncertainty, with investors waiting for key economic data and Fed insights on the direction of the Intrerest Rate. The most closely followed events of the week were the release of US non-farm payrolls data and speeches by Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Related stories Safe-haven demand skyrockets! Gold rose 6% in a single week to return to $2712, how will it affect the BTC market? Trump said ruthlessly: BRICS countries dare to "de-dollarize" and impose 100% tariffs! Gold hit the biggest one-day decline in nearly half a year, and the hedging market is gone? Pay attention to the Fed's Intrerest Rate decision at 3 a.m. Bloomberg Research: Trump's inauguration in January or BTC short-term high, BTC and stock market correlation weakened can go independent? 〈The ceasefire protocol has just taken effect "Israel strikes Lebanon again", BTC, gold hedging demand again? 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