#比特币反弹 The core contradiction in the current market is not simply the strength or weakness of technical indicators, but rather the geopolitical situation is re-pricing risk assets.

Latest news shows that the ceasefire window related to the US and Iran is approaching expiration, with Trump taking a hard stance against extending the ceasefire, but at the same time, the US, Iran, and mediators are all preparing to restart negotiations, indicating that the situation has not completely spiraled out of control, but has entered a high-volatility phase of "pressure and negotiation." It is precisely because of this divergence in expectations that oil prices are rising sharply due to the potential collapse of the ceasefire, while risk assets are repeatedly recovering because the hope for negotiations has not disappeared. The market is now trading not on "peace has arrived," but on "the worst-case scenario has not yet materialized."

BTC’s recent rebound above $76,000 is essentially the result of three overlapping forces:
First, the expectation of negotiations has temporarily improved market risk appetite;
Second, institutional funds are flowing back into digital asset products. According to CoinShares’ latest data, last week’s net inflow into digital asset investment products was about $1.4 billion, one of the strongest this year, indicating that it’s not just retail sentiment driving the market;
Third, Strategy has again made large-scale Bitcoin purchases, sending a strong signal that “institutions are still adding positions.” Therefore, this rally appears to be a combination of event-driven factors + capital inflow + institutional backing, rather than a purely emotional surge without reason.

Regarding the high point of this rebound:
Above $76,000, the short-term resistance zone has been entered, and without further positive confirmation, upward space will start to become crowded. Currently, external observations generally regard the $75,000–$76,000 range as a key resistance area, where the market has repeatedly surged and then retreated. Meanwhile, The Block mentions that Bitcoin near $75,000 remains a “fragile balance,” indicating that although funds have returned, confidence has not yet reached a level where macro events and conflicts can be ignored. In other words, if the ceasefire is extended or negotiations unexpectedly progress, BTC could continue testing $78,000 and even challenge $80,000; but if negotiations encounter further uncertainties, the vicinity of $76,000 is likely to become a profit-taking zone rather than a straightforward breakout.

The NFT sector leading the rally is also quite representative because it is often not the first thing “risk-averse funds” buy, but rather a signal that, as risk appetite recovers, the market begins to expand into high-elasticity, high-emotion assets. Data from SoSoValue tracking sectors shows that the NFT sector has gained nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, with high-volatility assets like BLUR and PENGU exhibiting even stronger elasticity. However, it’s important to note that this does not mean NFTs have fully reversed, as longer-term data still shows NFTs are in a low-base recovery phase, characterized by a “sentiment-led, fundamentals-following” structure. The NFT rally can be understood as a short-term risk-on thermometer, not a confirmation of a full-blown bull run. As long as BTC remains in a strong zone, capital will continue to seek high-beta rotations; once BTC pulls back, NFTs tend to fall faster than mainstream coins.

Regarding how to position before the “window period” before the ceasefire agreement expires, my approach is not to heavily bet on a single direction but to prepare two plans.
The first is offensive: if negotiations signal easing, oil prices fall, and BTC stays above $76,000, then continue to strategically position around BTC, ETH, and high-elasticity sentiment sectors, as this indicates the market is further reducing the probability of “out-of-control conflict,” and funds are more willing to chase elasticity.
The second is defensive: if Trump continues to make tough statements, negotiations stall without substantial progress, or oil prices surge again, then reduce exposure to mainly BTC and cash, and cut back on NFT and small-cap altcoins. The reason is simple: the current market rally is not based on absolute safety but on the premise that risks have not yet expanded. If this premise fails, funds will first withdraw from the most volatile sectors.

The impact of the subsequent situation on the market is: in the short term, focus on negotiations; in the medium term, watch oil prices; and in the longer term, observe whether capital continues to flow back. If around the expiration date, there is a scenario of “verbal tough talk but continued negotiations,” the market is likely to remain volatile but relatively strong, with BTC repeatedly testing higher ranges, and altcoins and NFTs gaining rotation opportunities. But if the ceasefire fails outright, and risks related to the Hormuz Strait escalate again, or oil prices continue to rise, then macro-level inflation and safe-haven trades will quickly suppress risk assets, and BTC may not be able to escape unscathed. The most important signals to watch now are not just statements, but three indicators: whether negotiations continue, whether oil prices can cool down, and whether capital inflows persist. As long as two of these three continue to improve, this rebound is not over; conversely, if two turn worse, the stage high is likely already near.