Date: April 18, 2026 (Singapore Time)

Short-term Impact (Next 1–7 Days)

1)
· Event: The US announces an extension of the sanctions waiver allowing the purchase of Russian oil until mid-May to ease energy shocks.
· Impact: Equivalent to a “temporary additional supply release” to the market → suppresses the upward slope of oil prices, benefiting shipping/aviation, and weakening energy stocks' short-term resilience.
· Focus: Actual release volume (whether close to 100 million barrels); whether the EU will follow or oppose.

2)
· Event: Iran warns that if the US maintains the blockade, it will close the Strait of Hormuz again.
· Impact: Oil prices enter a “on/off switch” fluctuation → volatility surges, increasing demand for options and safe-haven assets (gold).
· Focus: Signs of re-blockade; frequency of military friction.

3)
· Event: UK and France lead the formation of a multinational escort operation to ensure the safety of Hormuz shipping.
· Impact: Global energy transportation becomes “normalization of military escort” → shipping and insurance costs rise, but extreme disruption risks decrease.
· Focus: Number of participating countries; whether they form a different system from the US.

4)
· Event: US claims Iran has “basically accepted its conditions,” but Iran’s official denies reaching an agreement.
· Impact: Information asymmetry → high probability of short-term market misjudgment (yesterday’s oil price plunge is an example), asset prices prone to sharp fluctuations.
· Focus: Whether a formal joint statement is issued; whether there are substantive concessions on nuclear issues.

5)
· Event: US Congress passes a short-term intelligence bill extension while continuing to promote a tough foreign policy framework.
· Impact: US enters a “security-first” policy cycle → long-term benefits for military, cybersecurity sectors.
· Focus: Whether subsequent sanctions and monitoring scope will expand.

Long-term Impact (Next Several Weeks–Months)

6)
· Event: IEA warns that global energy supply recovery may take up to two years.
· Impact: Confirmation of a “long-term energy crisis” → central prices for oil and gas rise, global economy enters a structural inflation cycle.
· Focus: Rate of inventory depletion; whether strategic reserves will continue to be released.

7)
· Event: Although Hormuz announces “openness,” actual control remains with Iran and access is conditional.
· Impact: Global energy pricing shifts from “free flow” to “geopolitical control” → long-term risk premiums embedded in oil prices.
· Focus: Whether a fee/approval mechanism (similar to “energy tariffs”) will form.

8)
· Event: Global markets are highly sensitive to “ceasefire expectations,” with daily oil price fluctuations exceeding 10%.
· Impact: Volatility becomes a core asset → CTA, hedge fund strategies benefit, traditional allocations face increased difficulty.
· Focus: Changes in implied volatility (VIX, crude oil options).

9)
· Event: The US simultaneously sanctions Iran and relaxes restrictions on Russian energy, leading to a “dual-track” energy policy.
· Impact: Reshaping of the global energy landscape → Russia’s energy position temporarily rebounds, European policy risks fragmentation.
· Focus: Whether Europe will adjust its energy policy toward Russia; geopolitical camp divisions.

10)
· Event: Middle East conflicts combined with major powers’ policy splits, entering a “dual-track game of energy and security.”
· Impact: Asset pricing logic restructured → resources (oil, gas, grains) and military-industrial sectors remain long-term favorites, growth stocks face valuation pressure.
· Focus: Countries’ energy security strategies, military spending expansion, and supply chain restructuring progress.