Watching the project's treasury address transactions is like looking at a child's pocket money ledger... where the money went is actually quite honest. Truly working ones, expenses will match milestones: first hiring/ auditing/ infrastructure, then gradually pushing features, pulling in partnerships, occasionally also having "firefighting" expenses but they can be explained clearly. Conversely, daily large transfers out, new addresses for payees, spending rhythm completely unrelated to the roadmap, no matter how good the storytelling, it’s a bit suspicious.

Recently, everyone compares RWA, returns from buying US bonds, and on-chain yield products, but actually the first thing to look at is "who is using the treasury as an ATM." Even if the returns are attractive, a leaking treasury can't sleep soundly. My approach is very simple: first focus on expenditure patterns and delivery rhythm, if they don’t match, just consider it passing by, don’t gamble.