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The interest rate script is basically fixed: the beautiful country has already entered a "wait-and-see window"
The market has just given an extremely clear signal:
Probability of a 25BP rate hike in April: only 0.5%
Probability of holding steady: as high as 99.5%
Extending the timeline to June:
Probability of keeping rates unchanged: 94.1%
Probability of a rate hike: 0.5% (almost dismissed by the market)
Probability of a rate cut: 5.4% (starting to rise)