Analysis: The probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a consensus on core demands is not low

ME News message: On April 12 (UTC+8), CITIC Securities said that, judging from the U.S. side’s core demands, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it would become the U.S.’ most core war achievement—and also the biggest “accomplishment” Trump can use to placate domestic opinion. This round of conflict has already had a significant negative impact on the midterm elections, so Iran needs to extricate itself early. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the United States has lost control over Iran’s nuclear capability, and successive U.S. presidents over the past decades have failed to resolve this issue, seriously affecting the U.S. strategy in the Middle East. Compared with the huge role Iran’s “nuclear abandonment” plays in political propaganda, the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on elections; therefore, the Trump administration may be willing to compromise on issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz.

From the Iranian side’s core demands, this war has proved that blockading the strait and threatening Middle East infrastructure are extremely important leverage for checks and balances—indeed, even more destructive and flexible than threats posed by nuclear weapons. Compared with nuclear weapons, which are extremely expensive and difficult to control in terms of the scale involved, blockading the strait and striking infrastructure only require low-cost drones to deal a massive blow to the U.S. and the global economy, thereby forming Iran’s tools for checks and balances against the U.S. The fact that both the Iran and U.S. sides repeatedly stopped short at red lines near large-scale infrastructure destruction also means that the probability of the war escalating to extreme levels is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, a severe downturn, or stagflation is declining.

( Jin10 ) (Source: ODAILY)