#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈

Iran allows conditional passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which is definitely a blow to oil bulls, and oil prices have already fallen in anticipation.
✅ On one hand, supply-side expectations improve: the Strait of Hormuz is the busiest oil transportation route in the world, accounting for about 20% of global oil trade. The new regulations signal Iran's willingness to ensure passage through the strait under certain conditions, leading the market to expect increased stability in oil transportation in the region, which to some extent alleviates previous concerns about supply shortages caused by geopolitical conflicts.‌
✅ On the other hand, risk aversion sentiment cools: earlier geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. kept market fears of disruptions in Strait of Hormuz oil transportation fermenting, pushing oil prices higher. After the new regulations are introduced, the short-term geopolitical risk premium will decline, and international oil prices will experience a phased correction.

📈 But bulls don't need to worry too much; I believe there is still room for oil prices to rebound. The core disagreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding the nuclear deal revival remain, with the U.S. demanding Iran take specific actions to lift sanctions first, while Iran insists the U.S. must first lift all sanctions and provide legal guarantees. Both sides are firm, and the likelihood of reaching a comprehensive agreement in the short term is very low. As long as U.S.-Iran negotiations stall, the potential geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz will persist, and market fears of oil supply disruptions will reignite, pushing the geopolitical risk premium higher and again boosting oil prices.

Regarding oil prices, Little Wealth God still maintains a long-term bearish stance, but the recent decline has been enough for short-term trading, and it’s a good opportunity to enter for a rebound.