Recently, everyone has been linking stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and off-chain capital inflows into a "causal chain," but honestly, it’s a bit too smooth. An increase in stablecoins doesn’t necessarily mean people are buying; it could also be market making, arbitrage, or even just changing shells and lying around; just because money flows into ETFs doesn’t mean it will immediately hit the candlesticks you’re watching.

And when large on-chain transfers or hot and cold wallets on exchanges move, people shout "smart money is coming," but I always first check the order book: whether the orders are thick or thin, whether cancellations are happening in waves, or if there’s a fake wall that shrinks at the first touch. Anyway, I’m more focused on the rhythm of order cancellations than on imagining stories from wallet movements. For now, don’t mistake correlation for a script.