2. Geopolitics: Negotiations remain unresolved, tug-of-war continues

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22, with both sides denying any consensus on extending the ceasefire, and Pakistan’s delegation still mediating in Iran.
Meanwhile, the US naval blockade against Iran has been fully implemented, with no ships successfully passing US defenses in the past 48 hours; 10 ships have been forced to turn back.
Iran has threatened to retaliate by blocking the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea if the blockade continues.
Another development is that the US and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire by two weeks to buy more time for negotiations.
Israel is adopting a "talk while fighting" strategy—on one hand cooperating with the US to appear conciliatory, on the other continuing military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Market impact: The expiration of the ceasefire on April 22 is the current key time node.
If the ceasefire is successfully extended, risk appetite will continue to rise, and Bitcoin may test previous highs upward;
If the ceasefire breaks down or military conflict escalates, prices will face significant downside risk.
Closely monitor developments around April 22.

3. Macroeconomics: High inflation but rate cut expectations not fully vanished
Persistent energy shocks continue to push inflation higher.
US March PPI surged 1.1% month-over-month, with gasoline prices soaring 15.7% and diesel up 42%.
CME FedWatch data shows a 99% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in April, with only a 1.5% chance of rate cuts in June.
However, former Treasury Secretary Yellen recently maintained a cautious stance, suggesting the Fed might cut rates later this year.
Current inflation is mainly driven by supply-side costs rather than demand overheating, so the Fed is unlikely to act hastily.
A continued decline in oil prices is a key variable in easing inflation fears.
If energy prices keep cooling, rate cut expectations may be re-priced, providing medium-term support for Bitcoin.

4. Technical Indicators: Detailed Analysis
BTCUSDT (2-hour chart)— Fake breakout and high-level consolidation
The current price hovers around 73,950.
After a strong breakout above 76,000, it failed to stabilize, forming a textbook fake breakout pattern, with a high of 76,094 yesterday before pulling back.
System:
MA7=73,974 closely tracks the current price, providing immediate support.
MA30=73,687 is a medium-term trend support.
MA120=71,707 is a long-term trend support.
All three lines are rising and diverging, confirming the medium-term upward trend remains solid.
The price has retraced to near MA7, testing its support validity.
Bollinger Bands (BOLL):
The bands are widening; the price previously ran along the upper band, now pulling back between the middle and upper bands.
Upper band at 75,230 is a strong resistance; a volume breakout above it could open upward space toward 77,000–78,000.
The middle band around 73,600 acts as short-term support.
MACD (12,26,9):
DIF remains above DEA; the red bars have shortened but are still positive, indicating bullish momentum is slightly waning but still dominant, with no clear death cross.
KDJ (9,3,3):
K-value runs above 85, in a high zone, but shows signs of turning down.
Short-term overbought signals are evident, caution for a pullback, though high KDJ levels in a strong trend may persist.
RSI (6/12/24):
6-period RSI near 68, close to the overbought threshold of 70 but not in extreme overbought.
12-period RSI around 58–60, overall in a strong zone.
Volume:
Significant volume increase when breaking 73,678, indicating active bullish participation.
However, volume did not continue to expand after reaching 76,000, suggesting a false breakout with volume-price divergence.
Overall assessment:
Medium-term upward trend is stable, but short-term faces pullback pressure after the fake breakout.
Key support is at MA30 (73,687); if broken, next support is at MA120 (71,707).
Strong resistance at Bollinger upper band 75,230.

BTCUSDT (daily chart)— Full trend but correction needed
MACD (12,26,9):
DIF=1,172.17, DEA=582.17, MACD histogram=590, confirming a credible rebound basis.
RSI (6/12/24):
6-period RSI has pulled back from overbought, now around 70.
Bullish momentum has eased but remains in a strong zone.
Moving averages:
MA7 has crossed above MA60, with medium and long-term MAs in a bullish arrangement, but the price is far from MA7, with high divergence causing short-term correction.
Bollinger Bands:
Price previously touched the upper band and then pulled back; a shooting star pattern formed yesterday, warning of a correction risk.
Overall:
The daily trend remains bullish, currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with potential to test previous highs.
But short-term correction cannot be ignored; wait for a pullback to key supports before entering long positions.

ETHUSDT (2-hour chart)— Weaker than BTC, MA death cross suppression
Price around 2,336, clearly weaker than BTC, unable to break 2,380 resistance.
System:
MA7 closely tracks the current price, MA30 supports medium-term, MA120 supports long-term.
All three are rising and diverging, but price repeatedly tests MA7, indicating weak support compared to BTC.
Bollinger Bands:
Bands are widening; price previously broke above the upper band at 2,391 briefly, then pulled back to between middle and upper bands.
Upper band at 2,391 is a strong resistance; volume breakout could target 2,450–2,500.
Short-term support at 2,320.
MACD (12,26,9):
DIF above DEA, red bars positive, bullish but shrinking, indicating waning upward momentum.
KDJ (9,3,3):
K-value above 75, high zone, but showing signs of turning down, short-term correction pressure.
RSI:
Near 62, approaching overbought but not extreme, momentum remains positive.
Volume:
Significant volume increase at 2,330, active bullish participation, healthy technical structure.
Overall:
Medium-term bullish trend, but facing resistance at 2,380, with MACD red bars shrinking.
Support at 2,320–2,330; breaking below tests MA30 (around 2,260–2,280).
Only a sustained move above 2,400 can open further upside.

5. On-chain whale and contract data: Intense tug-of-war
(1) Whale activity—diverging positions
Santiment data shows whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have risen to the highest since mid-February, with a net buy of 27,652 BTC (over $2 billion) last Sunday alone.
But within whales, divergence is emerging: some whales continue to accumulate, while others are starting to short.
A whale starting with 0x3fc closed long positions and opened new short positions at an average of $108,300, with a nominal value of $80.28 million, currently with over 20% unrealized loss.
Another whale used 40x leverage to short BTC, with take-profit orders between $71,100 and $72,100.
Ethereum whales also increased holdings, with addresses holding at least 100,000 ETH rising from 54 to 57, indicating new large inflows.

(2) Long-short ratio and liquidation data—cautious conditions
Funding rate:
The 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 46 consecutive days, the first time since the FTX collapse in 2022, similar to the bottom structure then.
It briefly turned neutral after prices surged above 76,000 but remains overall bearish, with some periods showing stronger short sentiment than the previous day.
Liquidation data:
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached about $257 million, with longs at $163 million and shorts at $93.8 million.
BTC liquidations approx. $55.58 million, ETH approx. $37.3 million.
Open interest:
Total open contracts around $5.664 billion, with leverage levels still adjusting.

(3) ETF funds—institutions reducing positions while whales increase holdings
Yesterday, ETF net outflows reached $1.945 billion, the largest in nearly two weeks, indicating some institutional profit-taking at high levels.

6. Overall assessment and operational priorities
Signals:
- Positive/Negative
- Geopolitics: Ceasefire extension negotiations ongoing, April 22 key node
- Short-term uncertain macro environment
- Oil price decline easing inflation fears, Yellen open to rate cuts
- Slightly bullish whale activity, divergence within large holders
- Neutral ETF funds, net outflow of $1.945 billion
- Bearish funding rate, negative for 46 days (first since FTX)
- Technical: Daily bullish trend intact, 2-hour fake breakout correction
- ETH: Resistance at 2,380 not broken, MACD shrinking

Operational priority (cautious):
1. Conservative short positions:
Enter BTC longs around 74,700–75,500.
Logic: Fake breakout confirmed at 76,000 yesterday, ETF outflows, negative funding rate, but price not falling.
2. Conservative long positions:
Enter BTC longs on dips around 72,800–73,200, supported by whale accumulation and technical supports at MA30 and MA120.
3. Aggressive chasing:
Only on confirmed signals—wait for volume confirmation above 76,000 for longs, or breakdown below 73,000 with ETH confirmation for shorts.
Both carry high risk; only for aggressive traders with strict risk controls.

7. Core risk warnings
1. April 22 ceasefire expiration is the biggest variable:
If extended smoothly, BTC may test previous highs;
if broken or conflict escalates, prices could sharply fall.
Prepare risk controls accordingly.
2. Fake breakout at 76,000:
Post-failure, market sentiment turns bearish, with higher probability of short-term declines.
3. The significance of 46 days of negative funding rate:
Last occurred after the 2022 FTX collapse, at a bottom zone.
But now, prices have rebounded sharply from lows.
Whether negative funding rate triggers a short squeeze again depends on whether prices can hold above 76,000.
4. ETF outflows of $1.945 billion:
Largest in two weeks, signaling institutional profit-taking at high levels.
5. Liquidity risk:
Market makers reduce exposure amid geopolitical risk decline, adopt light positions, and enforce strict stop-losses.

$BTC