As of April 16th, international spot gold is quoted at $4,795 per ounce, down approximately 1.5% from the recent high of $4,870. During the day, it fluctuated below the key psychological level of $4,800, showing a technical correction trend. Currently, gold prices are testing the support of the recent upward channel's lower boundary and the 5-day moving average (around $4,786). If this support is broken, the next support level is in the $4,745–$4,750 range; resistance above is concentrated near $4,839 and $4,870.

On the macro front, U.S. March CPI and PPI data both exceeded expectations, with inflation remaining sticky at high levels. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have been significantly reduced. Meanwhile, the Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled somewhat amid hopes of a ceasefire, leading to a marginal decline in safe-haven sentiment. The combination of these two factors has temporarily suppressed gold prices. However, global central banks' continued gold purchases and structural buying still provide support below, so short-term gold prices are likely to fluctuate within a range. The direction will depend on new macroeconomic or geopolitical catalysts.

Crude Oil

As of April 16th, Brent crude futures are quoted at $94.93 per barrel, and WTI crude futures at $91.29 per barrel, maintaining a high-level oscillation pattern overall. The current market is balancing between geopolitical risk premiums and diplomatic uncertainties. The WTI near-month premium has fallen back about 60% from its peak, and the volatility index of oil options has nearly halved from March's high point. The panic trading phase has basically ended, and the market is gradually returning to fundamentals-based pricing.

On the supply and demand side, the U.S. comprehensive blockade of Iranian ports is accelerating the depletion of global oil inventories. As of the week ending April 10th, EIA data showed an unexpected decrease of 913k barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, contrasting with market expectations. Coupled with the ongoing supply gap of several million barrels per day in the Middle East, the short-term supply-demand tightness in the oil market is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed. The key focus moving forward is on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at high levels, with risks of both upward and downward volatility.