Been watching this FOMC meeting pattern and it's pretty wild - Bitcoin keeps dumping after Fed decisions, even when the outcome doesn't really matter. Checked the data from last year and saw negative returns in 48 hours after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings. Doesn't matter if rates stayed the same or moved, the event itself seems to trigger selling.

So here we are heading into March's FOMC meeting with BTC sitting above 74K, looking strong. But markets are basically pricing in zero rate cuts this year - just one 25 basis point reduction maybe by year end. Meanwhile oil's hovering around 100 bucks and geopolitical stuff keeps heating up, which means inflation could stay sticky. That limits what the Fed can actually do.

Classic setup for a sell the news move. The FOMC meeting announcement might look boring on the surface - rates staying put - but that doesn't stop traders from taking profits. Seen this cycle repeat enough times to know the momentum into these Fed decisions doesn't always stick around after.