Just noticed something interesting in the bitcoin data. While retail investors who hold less than 0.1 BTC have been steadily accumulating and now hold their highest share since mid-2024, the big players are doing the opposite. The whales and sharks (10k to 10k BTC holders) have actually been offloading since October. That's a pretty stark split.

So here's the thing - retail is showing up and buying bitcoins, which is cool to see. But historically, it's never the small guys who drive the big moves. You need those whale wallets to actually commit to a rally for it to stick. Right now we're seeing retail provide a floor with short-term momentum, but without major holders joining in, every bounce risks getting sold into.

The data got a bit messy after that February crash to $60k. Mid-sized wallets did aggressively buy the dip, but the largest holders kept distributing. So the aggregate is still negative since October despite some encouraging signals. Bitcoin is now trading around $74k, but the underlying dynamic is still the same - who buys bitcoins next really depends on whether these big wallets flip from sellers to buyers. Until that happens, expect more chop. The shrimps are ready. They're just waiting for the whales to show up and do their part.