Zhang Jinlei: Gold opens higher and then pulls back, mainly fluctuating before non-farm payrolls.

On April 2nd, yesterday gold experienced a predominantly bullish oscillation, opening higher in the Asian session and rising above 4700, but subsequently giving back a significant portion of the gains. It fell to around 4660 at midday, then rebounded again, stopping out short positions. After breaking through 4730, it retraced and entered long positions again, manually taking profits around 4770 in the evening, removing losses and earning quite a bit. Ultimately, the gold price closed at $4,758, with a four-day consecutive bullish daily candle.

On Thursday (April 2nd), currently, Trump claims Iran has requested a ceasefire (Iran denies), and U.S. Vice President Pence continues communication through Pakistani intermediaries, emphasizing that as long as demands such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz are met, Trump is willing to accept a ceasefire. Diplomatic breakthroughs are expected to boost market sentiment. Therefore, this phenomenon is more bullish for gold.

However, in the morning, Trump delivered a nationwide speech with little new content. While declaring victory, he also threatened to strike Iran’s energy and electricity facilities, stating that significant strikes could be launched within the next two or three weeks—effectively meaning “business as usual.” Earlier remarks about withdrawing troops from the Middle East now seem more like a gesture to soothe the market while keeping pressure options open. Clearly, he still favors a “pressure first” strategy rather than a complete cooling down. This indicates that the dollar will continue to be supported in the short term, exerting downward pressure on gold.

From a technical perspective, although gold continued to rise yesterday, the pace and resistance levels were within expectations. The 4800 level acted as a natural cap, as anticipated. Today’s morning news also triggered a correction and pullback, with a relatively ideal short-term decline, falling to around 4650 to pause and confirm resistance. Intraday, attention can be paid to a short-term resistance around 4740-50, with the main focus still on the 4780-4800 zone. Support at 4650 is temporary; if further retracement causes a fall below 4600, gold may revert to a medium-term downtrend.

In summary, after four consecutive bullish days reaching 4800 USD, a nearly $150 plunge occurred following Trump’s speech, indicating profit-taking pressure after a strong rally. Caution is needed for a technical correction. Currently, gold prices are high, and after a continuous rally, a pullback is expected; aggressive chasing is not advisable. Conservative traders can focus on tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data. If the data is weak, gold may further advance; if the data is below expectations or strong, a new correction could be triggered.

Therefore, intraday trading suggestions are:

Gold: Buy around 4680-4685, stop-loss at 4670, target near 4780-4800, hold through breakouts. If it falls below 4670, reverse to short positions, targeting 4600-4550.

Key economic data and events to watch on Thursday, April 2, 2026:

19:30 U.S. Challenger layoffs for March

20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28

20:30 U.S. trade balance for February

23:00 Fed’s Logan speech

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