So yesterday I saw something quite interesting on the blockchain research timeline. Six Polymarket accounts suspected of being insiders managed to make $1.2 million by betting on the U.S. attack on Iran on February 28. Bubblemaps conducted in-depth analytical research and found very suspicious patterns.

Their method of operation is quite clear. All six wallets were created in February, all funded within 24 hours before the attack actually happened. They immediately bought "Yes" shares on the "U.S. Attack on Iran on February 28, 2026?" market just a few hours before reports of explosions in Tehran. These accounts had no other activity at all, only this bet. One account even bought more than 560,000 shares at 10.8 cents per share, which then paid nearly $560,000 when the market settled at $1.

What’s most interesting about this research is how Bubblemaps visualized these wallets clustered together and funded through similar pathways. It’s no coincidence. The volume on the February 28 contract alone reached nearly $90 million, part of over $529 million wagered since December. But these six accounts’ timing is too perfect.

The attack itself caused significant market movement. Bitcoin briefly broke $76,000 before reversing to $74,000 at that time, while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose. So they not only knew the market direction, but also profited from the volatility created.

Regulators are already taking this seriously. The CFTC issued an advisory last week warning that insider trading on event contracts could violate US law. Competing platform Kalshi has already taken action, suspending and fining two users including an editor from "Beast Games" suspected of trading based on knowledge of event outcomes. Kalshi said they have investigated around 200 cases and have more than a dozen active investigations. They also banned employees for two years and fined over $20,000.

The funny part is that recently a Polymarket trader suspected of insider trading on a market designed to catch insiders was exposed. ZachXBT leaked that he would publish an investigation into a crypto platform, and it turned out to be Axiom. Before the announcement, Lookonchain identified 12 wallets aggressively betting on Axiom. So people knew the answer before the official question was answered.

This shows that prediction markets have a serious problem with information asymmetry. If someone knows the outcome before the market does, they gain a huge unfair advantage. Regulations will definitely tighten in the future, and platforms must be more serious about monitoring suspicious activity like this.