Currently trading around $74,000, Bitcoin has clearly lost the momentum from last week's sharp rebound. After falling to the low $60,000s, there was buying back to aim for $70,000, but the market predominantly views this as nothing more than a typical relief rally in a bearish trend.

The background to this stagnation lies in the current state of spot trading. Overall spot trading volume across major exchanges has decreased by over 30% since October, and monthly spot transaction volume has dropped from $1 trillion to the mid-$700 billion range. In other words, the number of participants in spot trading is steadily declining. Notably, retail investors are withdrawing significantly, continuing a gradual market exit rather than a sudden mass sell-off.

This liquidity reduction is problematic because even minor selling pressure can cause excessive price fluctuations. Due to the thin order book, selling in low-volume spot trades can trigger a chain reaction of stop-losses, leading to further declines—a feedback loop that is easily formed. The possibility of retesting the 200-week moving average and the key support around $60,000 remains high.

Sentiment indicators are also issuing warnings. The Fear & Greed Index temporarily dropped to 6, reaching the same level as during the FTX collapse in 2022. Although it recovered to 14, it still indicates a level "too low to buy with confidence." Market psychology remains extremely bearish.

Technically, maintaining the current level around $74,000 is crucial, with a recovery in spot trading being a key factor. If buyers continue to defend $60,000 and spot trading volume gradually recovers, a transition to a correction phase could occur. However, if the macro environment remains risk-off and liquidity does not improve, similar shakeouts are very likely to happen again.

XRP is also worth watching. With XRP integrated into Rakuten's payment app for 44 million users and increasing real demand, it is currently trading around $1.36. A breakout above $1.40 to $1.42 is necessary for a genuine rally, but falling below $1.30 would signal that the current breakout attempt has failed. The trend in spot trading will also be decisive here.