The Bitcoin halving process in 2028 is over halfway: supply contraction accelerates and institutional demand reshapes market structure

As of April 2026, under the assumption of a block time of 10 minutes on average, there are still about 105,000 blocks until the next halving, with the current cycle already halfway through. The next halving is expected to occur around 2028, at a block height of approximately 1,050,000, at which point the block reward will decrease from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, reducing the daily new supply from about 450 BTC to roughly 225 BTC.

This is not an unexpected event but a journey predetermined in the code. Yet, at this “midway” point, the structural differences between this halving cycle and previous ones are beginning to become clearly visible. Bitcoin’s supply narrative has never been so certain, while the behavior logic of market participants is undergoing profound reshaping.

Halving Countdown Reaches 50% Milestone

Bitcoin halving is an automatic mechanism preset in the network protocol—every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves. This rule has remained unchanged since the birth of Bitcoin’s genesis block in 2009 and forms the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s monetary policy.

The fourth halving was completed in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Calculated over a full cycle of 210,000 blocks, the current remaining blocks until the fifth halving at block height 1,050,000 is about 105,000, exactly 50%. Based on an average of one block every 10 minutes, the next halving is estimated to occur around April 2028, with predictions from different sources fluctuating between March and May.

This is an objective fact: the halving progress has reached 50%, with about two years remaining. The block reward will decrease from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, and the daily new supply will halve to approximately 225 BTC. This number itself is neutral, but the market expectations and behavioral adjustments triggered by it are producing profound structural impacts.

Data and Supply Structure Analysis

Supply Stock: Over 93% of Bitcoin Has Been Mined

Bitcoin’s total supply is permanently capped at 21 million coins. As of April 2026, over 19.68 million BTC have been mined, accounting for more than 93% of the total supply. The remaining unmined Bitcoin is about 1.32 million coins, which will be gradually released over the next approximately 114 years until around 2140, when all will enter circulation.

This data reveals a key fact: Bitcoin’s new supply has entered the “tail phase.” Each halving further compresses the marginal increase in new supply, and the absolute amount of this compression is decreasing—from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, then to 12.5 BTC, 6.25 BTC, 3.125 BTC, with each halving’s impact diminishing in absolute terms but remaining proportionally consistent.

Annualized Inflation Rate: Now Below Gold

The halving mechanism directly determines Bitcoin’s annualized inflation rate. Currently, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate is about 0.85%, already lower than gold’s approximate 1.5% to 2% annual supply growth. After the 2028 halving, this figure will further decline to around 0.4%. From a scarcity perspective, Bitcoin has officially become more scarce than gold after the 2024 halving. As the 2028 halving approaches, this scarcity attribute will be further reinforced.

Signals of Changes in Miner Revenue Structure

On the other side of the halving, there is a systematic reduction in miners’ block reward income. Currently, miners earn about 450 BTC daily from approximately 144 blocks (excluding transaction fees). After the 2028 halving, this will drop to about 225 BTC.

Another variable in miners’ revenue structure—transaction fees—is increasing in importance during the halving cycle. As block rewards continue to shrink, the proportion of fees in miners’ total income will become a key indicator of the network’s long-term security. However, this is not directly determined by the halving mechanism but depends on network usage and on-chain activity. At this stage, the long-term evolution of fee share remains speculative.

Dissecting Public Sentiment: Structural Divergences in This Cycle

The current market has formed several core discussion points around the 2028 halving, with significant differences in narrative frameworks among participants.

Institutional Demand Will Offset Supply Shocks

The emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs is seen as the most fundamental structural change in this cycle. As of March 6, 2026, the US holds about 1,284,635 BTC through spot Bitcoin ETFs, with an asset management scale of approximately $87.1 billion, accounting for about 6% to 7% of the total Bitcoin supply. This demand source did not exist during the 2024 halving cycle, and its ongoing capital inflows provide structural buying support for the market.

Parallel to this is corporate-level buying. Strategy, as of April 13, 2026, holds 780,897 BTC, with a total investment of about $59.02 billion and an average cost of roughly $75,577. In some periods, this company’s monthly accumulation has exceeded miners’ monthly new production. Such phenomena have never occurred in previous halving cycles.

Observers supporting this narrative believe that even if the daily new supply drops to 225 BTC after the 2028 halving, sustained inflows from ETFs and strategic corporate accumulation could create a “structural offset” to supply contraction on the demand side.

Structural Pressure on Miners

Another perspective focuses on the supply side—not Bitcoin’s supply itself, but the sustainability of hash power supply. Miners face multi-dimensional cost pressures:

The total network hash rate has stabilized between 900 EH/s and 1 ZH/s, marking Bitcoin mining’s entry into a large-scale computational era. Meanwhile, in Q1 2026, hash price (cost per PH/s per day) fell to a historic low of about $28 to $30. By Q4 2025, the weighted average cash cost for producing one Bitcoin by listed mining companies had reached approximately $79,995.

As of April 15, 2026, with market prices around $74,409.50, miners are already operating at a loss without considering depreciation and capital expenditures. About 15% to 20% of global mining machines are running at a loss.

This indicates that, entering the 2028 halving cycle, miners’ balance sheets are in worse shape than before the 2024 halving. The 2024 cycle began during a period of rising hash prices, whereas the 2028 cycle begins after long-term profit margins have been squeezed.

Doubts About the Reproducibility of Historical Patterns

Historical data shows that after the first three halvings, Bitcoin’s price experienced significant increases within 12 to 18 months: over 7,000% after 2012, about 291% after 2016, and substantial growth after 2020. However, after the 2024 halving, the gains have been notably narrower.

This divergence has sparked widespread debate about the sustainability of the “halving-driven price” historical pattern. Whether the structural changes in the market—especially the involvement of institutional funds and deep coupling with macroeconomic cycles—mean that past simple cycle laws no longer apply is at the core of current controversy.

Industry Impact Analysis

Reshaping of Mining’s Balance Sheets

The pressure of the 2028 halving has already been reflected in the actions of mining companies. In Q1 2026, several leading miners significantly reduced their Bitcoin holdings to lower leverage: MARA Holdings sold over 15,000 BTC, Riot Platforms liquidated more than 3,700 BTC, and Cango sold about 2,000 BTC to meet financing needs. As of February 20, Bitdeer’s Bitcoin holdings had dropped to zero—this global top publicly traded self-mining company chose not to hold any mined Bitcoin.

These actions send a clear signal: miners are shifting from “mining and hoarding” to a capital discipline model focused on liquidity and debt management. The space for survival in the middle ground is shrinking, and only large-scale, diversified operators can sustain themselves in the post-halving environment.

Transition of Miners Toward Energy Infrastructure

As pure block reward becomes an increasingly thin business, leading operators are redefining their business attributes—from Bitcoin mining companies to power and data center infrastructure providers. Listed miners have signed over $70 billion in AI/HPC contracts, and by the end of 2026, some leading miners will derive up to 70% of their revenue from AI-related businesses.

The main driver of this transformation is the revenue gap between Bitcoin mining and AI computing: AI data centers generate $200 to $500 per MW, while Bitcoin mining yields only $57 to $129 per MW. This economic disparity is pushing the industry toward structural reorganization—where the most valuable metric is no longer just hash rate but total power capacity and multi-purpose infrastructure capabilities.

Long-term Market Structural Impact of Institutionalization

The introduction of spot ETFs has changed Bitcoin’s demand structure. Unlike the traditional retail-dominated cycle, ETF investors include financial advisors, pension funds, and family offices, with longer holding periods and lower sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations. This segment of capital did not exist before the 2024 halving, providing an additional structural demand layer.

However, institutionalization also introduces new correlations. The correlation of Bitcoin’s price with macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical events has increased as institutional participation deepens. This suggests that future halving cycles may no longer operate independently within the crypto market but will be more deeply embedded in the fluctuations of the global financial system.

Conclusion

The halfway point of Bitcoin’s 2028 halving process is an objective time marker, not a market turning point. It reminds market participants of two things: first, that Bitcoin’s supply contraction is certain, unchangeable, and written into the code; second, that this cycle’s market structure is different from any previous one.

The existence of ETFs, the scale of corporate buying, the structural pressures on miners’ costs, and miners’ shift toward energy infrastructure—all variables that did not exist or were in their infancy during the 2024 halving—are not fully accounted for if one simply applies past cycle experiences to 2028. Over-simplifying these past lessons risks overlooking the profound structural changes.

Between the narrative of “halving-driven bull markets” and the skepticism that “this cycle is already different,” the answer may not be a binary choice but understanding how these factors intertwine to shape a more complex, more institutionalized, yet more resilient Bitcoin market. Regardless of price direction, the halving mechanism itself continues to faithfully fulfill its mission—replacing human decision-making with mathematical certainty, and rule-based code with subjective judgment.