A tough stance drives the Middle East situation to heat up again, with Hu'an Oil ETF once rising over 3%.

Ask AI · Why did Trump’s tough stance trigger a short-term surge in international oil prices?

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up again. On April 2, the latest news shows that the U.S. has released a fresh tough signal. Trump publicly claimed that he has achieved a rapid and decisive victory in the Iran-related conflict, and further made statements about potentially striking Iranian oil facilities, directly triggering global crude oil supply chain risk-averse concerns.

Driven by the spillover and escalation of geopolitical risk, international oil prices surged sharply in the short term. Brent crude’s increase exceeded 4%, and prices rose above the $105 mark. Expectations of short-term price increases in the energy sector were further reinforced.

China’s A-share oil sector also jumped sharply in response. For the related ETFs, as of 10:04, Oil ETF Huaxin (159195) was up 3.15%, with a turnover rate of 33.77% and trading volume of 89.7239 million yuan. Trading activity in the market was active. Tracking the index, the China Securities Oil and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose strongly by 3.27%. Among constituent stocks, Shunli Petroleum rose 10.01%, China Merchants Energy Shipping rose 10.00%, Jereh Co., Ltd. rose 10.00%, and Blueflame Holding, China Merchants Nanhai, and other stocks also followed suit.

The head of the International Energy Agency stated that due to the Middle East crisis, to date there have been losses of more than 12 million barrels per day of oil supply. This crisis is more severe than the two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 interruption of Russian natural gas supply combined. It is expected that oil losses in April will be twice those in March. The biggest issue is a shortage of aviation fuel and diesel; it has already affected Asia and will affect Europe from April to May. The agency is considering further releasing strategic reserves: “If we think there is demand for crude oil or refined products, we may intervene.” In the Middle East, about 40 key energy assets have already been damaged.

CICC Huatai Securities pointed out that considering the disruption to transport through the Strait of Hormuz and limited alternative routes, combined with Middle Eastern oilfields facing shutdown due to oil tank saturation, as well as the possibility that after the strait resumes passage, the world may start a round of precautionary inventory replenishment of crude oil, refined products, and other energy-chemical products, high-dividend energy sector leading companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, and with incremental natural gas business, may help support the independent and controllable supply of domestic oil and gas resources. China’s energy-chemical industrial chain is more resilient; in the short term, the impact of supply shocks is weaker on it than on overseas companies. Once supply-chain expectations stabilize, global inventory replenishment will help the refining and chemical industries maintain a sustained recovery in business conditions.

Oil ETF Huaxin (159195) closely tracks the China Securities Oil and Natural Gas Index. The China Securities Oil and Natural Gas Index reflects changes in the security prices of listed companies related to the oil and natural gas industry on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges.

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