Did you notice the same thing? Macro models are starting to become really interesting right now. A new circulating study suggests that inflation since 2020 could actually pick up again in the United States, which seriously questions the disinflation narrative that many Bitcoiners have been advocating.

This is an important turning point because for a long time, the bullish consensus on Bitcoin largely relied on the idea that inflation was calming down. The arguments went something like this: less inflation = less pressure on central banks = lower interest rates = a better environment for alternative assets.

But here’s the thing, if this study is correct and inflation since 2020 hasn't really disappeared but is about to rise again, that completely changes the equation. The implications for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are obvious: it could mean persistent or worsening inflationary pressures, which might force authorities to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy.

What really interests me is how the market will incorporate this information. We’ve had so many false signals in recent months that investors have become cautious. But if the data confirms that inflation since 2020 was only the tip of the iceberg, narratives will need to adjust quickly.

Bitcoin was positioned as a hedge against inflation. If inflationary trends resume, theoretically, that should work in its favor. But the timing and how interest rates react will be crucial. Stay tuned.