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I just reviewed something that should catch the attention of anyone following Bitcoin: we are about to reach 20 million BTC in circulation. When I think about it, it’s almost surreal.
What makes this particularly interesting is understanding what this means in terms of Bitcoin’s supply curve. We have 21 million as an absolute cap, and we’ve already mined over 95% of that. But here’s the fascinating part: that last million bitcoins? According to calculations, it will take approximately another 114 years to mine them. Yes, 114 years.
This is not just a random number. It reflects how Bitcoin’s halving works and how the supply curve becomes increasingly flat as we approach the maximum limit. Every four years, mining rewards are halved, which means the rate of new issuance drops dramatically. That’s why the last bitcoins will arrive incredibly slowly.
What I find remarkable is how this affects the scarcity narrative. When most bitcoins are already in circulation and the flow of new ones becomes virtually insignificant, the supply and demand dynamics fundamentally change. The supply curve becomes almost flat, almost static.
It’s one of those technical details that sounds abstract until you really process it. Bitcoin was designed with this mechanic from the start, and now we’re seeing how it unfolds in real time. Quite clever, if you ask me.