Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ministry data goes viral: Are 30 billion people enough to live in commercial housing?


I was completely shocked by a set of data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development—30B buildings!
You read that right, not 600 million units, nor 600 million rooms, but 600 million buildings.
This is the final number obtained after the country mobilized 2.6 million technicians, spending a full three years conducting a carpet survey of 100% of cities and rural villages nationwide.
Even if only 100 million of these are commercial housing. Assuming each building houses 100 households, with an average of three people per household, just this 100 million buildings could theoretically accommodate 300 billion people.
And the world’s population is only 8 billion.
This is the most realistic current situation of real estate: supply has become overwhelming to the point of suffocation.
Over the past 20 years, houses have been packaged as China’s most valuable assets, even becoming the only belief for many to cross social strata. Stories of wealth built on buying for 2 million and selling for 20 million.
But now, houses are called cages! You think you’ve bought freedom, but in reality, you’ve only bought a grid tightly locked by reinforced concrete. The key point is, your house’s left side is someone else’s right side, your right side is someone else’s left, above you is someone else’s below, and below you is someone else’s above!
A few years ago, buying at high prices, now even an 80% discount on listing prices doesn’t attract anyone.
The most extreme case is that the value of the house has fallen below the down payment, and even if you give the house away for free, you still owe the bank a mountain of debt.
This is probably the most bizarre scene in human history: robbers can’t even turn you into a negative asset, but buying a house can.
From a value investment perspective, current real estate has long lost its qualification as an asset.
The rent-to-price ratio is generally below 2%, and some are only 1%.
What does this mean? It means if you want to recover your costs through rent, you need 100 years!
In today’s world where AI updates every 3 days and global dynamics change daily, locking decades of labor into a physical asset that takes 100 years to break even is just too risky.
Those still fantasizing about house prices returning to their peak are relying on past three decades of path dependence to project the next thirty years’ logic.
So, are you still buying a house?
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