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Just noticed Bitcoin just wrapped up an 8-day winning streak – something that hasn't happened in 4 years. Started around $68K on March 9 and climbed to above $75K. Pretty wild momentum, but here's the thing that's got me thinking twice about it.
Historically, after these kinds of streaks happen, Bitcoin goes up about 60% of the time over the next month, with a median gain around 19%. Sounds bullish, right? But then you look at what happened in 2022 – Bitcoin had an identical 8-day streak in March that year too. Except that one turned out to be a fake-out. Prices tanked about 30% over the following 30 days. Not great.
The bigger picture is we're in the same phase of the halving cycle as 2022 was – the contraction phase. That historically tends to be bearish. Plus, MSTR (MicroStrategy) is tracking almost exactly the same pattern now as it did back then, which is... concerning. I'm not saying the streak is meaningless, but I'm also not ready to go all-in expecting smooth sailing. The geopolitical stuff and ETF inflows are supporting things, but caution seems warranted here.