I just reviewed some fascinating insights about Polymarket in recent weeks. The platform became a hub for speculative trading around the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the numbers are truly impressive.

The market on whether the United States would attack Iran accumulated $529 million in volume, making it one of the largest Polymarket has ever seen. Only the February 28th date recorded nearly $90 million in trades. The interesting part is that anyone with a crypto wallet could take positions on regime changes or ground intervention during the weekend, while traditional markets were closed.

There was a detail that raised eyebrows: on-chain analysts identified six wallets that made approximately $1.2 million by correctly betting on the February 28th attack. Most were funded hours before the operation began. One wallet turned $61,000 into over $493,000 in profit. This intensified the debate over possible insider information.

Another relevant market was the one about Khamenei. A contract on his departure from power before March 31st accumulated $45 million in volume before settling at 100%. The main trader in that position took out $757,000.

Now the focus has shifted to what’s next. Traders are pricing in a ceasefire by late March or April according to implied probabilities. The market on whether the Iranian regime will fall before June 30th stands at 54%, a significant change from the 20% seen in previous months. There are also contracts on the next Supreme Leader, with Ali Larijani leading among the named candidates.

What Polymarket enables here is something structurally and legally impossible in traditional markets. Oil and stock futures don’t reopen until Sunday night, but on a decentralized prediction platform, anyone can position themselves on geopolitical events in real-time during the weekend.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin stayed above $74,000 as global risk appetite returned. Major Asian stock indices and the S&P 500 recovered losses linked to the conflict. Polymarket, for its part, added an explanation noting that the promise of prediction markets is to leverage collective wisdom to create accurate forecasts of the most important events.