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Interestingly, Ray Dalio recently criticized Bitcoin on the All-In Podcast, saying it shouldn't be compared to gold because it lacks central bank backing, has poor privacy, and faces threats from quantum computing. But the market's reaction seems to be calling him out.
On that day, gold dropped over 3%, while Bitcoin only fell 0.7%. In the face of geopolitical crises like the US-Iran conflict, according to Dalio's logic, gold should be the safe haven of choice, yet it performed worse. What does this indicate? Possibly that neither asset has fully played its safe-haven role in this crisis, but Bitcoin's resilience to decline appears stronger.
Looking ahead, the performance of Bitcoin and gold has long diverged. From July to early October, they moved in sync, but after the big liquidation of over $70k in leveraged positions during the October crash, they took separate paths. Now, Bitcoin has fallen over 45% from its October high, while gold has risen more than 30%. This week's volatility is also interesting—gold surged on Saturday then retreated, Bitcoin initially plummeted, rebounded on Sunday, and was sold off at $70k on Tuesday. In short, neither is particularly stable as a safe haven.
Dalio's specific criticisms aren't new either. He pointed out that Bitcoin lacks privacy, with every transaction traceable and controllable, and questioned whether central banks would hold an asset operating on a public ledger. He also mentioned the threat of quantum computing, calling it a long-term existential risk.
However, he isn't entirely bearish. Dalio's own portfolio probably allocates about 1% to Bitcoin for diversification, and last year he recommended investors hold a 15% mix of Bitcoin or gold, considering it the optimal risk-reward ratio given the US debt spiral. He also warned that the US-led world order has already broken down, and investors need to rethink how to protect their wealth.
The question now is, is gold still the only answer? The market is clearly debating this. This week's price movements make his argument harder to justify. Currently, Bitcoin's performance appears more stable in terms of volatility, which doesn't quite align with his expectations.