Just noticed something interesting in the bitcoin derivatives market that caught my attention. So BTC dipped to around 60k last week before bouncing back to near 70k, but here's the thing - the futures market isn't behaving like it usually does when we're actually capitulating. Greg Magadini from Amberdata pointed this out, and it's making me think we might not have hit bottom yet. Normally when bear markets truly bottom out, you see futures trading at steep discounts to spot prices. Like back in 2022, 90-day futures were down 9% compared to spot when BTC hit those lows below 20k. But right now? Futures are still sitting at a modest 4% premium to spot. That's nowhere near the panic-selling signals we'd expect. It's kind of like watching coffee futures - you know when there's real capitulation in commodities by how dramatically the pricing structure shifts. Here, the basis barely moved, dropping maybe 100 basis points on each leg down. Magadini's take is pretty clear: the lack of that extreme futures discount suggests there's room for another leg lower before we see true capitulation. Current BTC price is hovering around 74.25k, but if the derivatives data is right, traders might not be fully capitulated yet. That could mean more downside before we get the kind of market flush that historically marks a real bottom.