4.8 Subjective Cycle Review Post: A Meteor Arrow?

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Market

The news is beyond expectations—global markets rebound. We have no choice.

Actually, the time spent consolidating isn’t long enough.

Here, the normal expectation is to come back and retest the bottom of the box again.

This is a key focus for heavy positions because, whether it flips or not, there’s still going to be a rebound.

It’s the same logic as 04.03.

Then this rebound breaks through the box again, and paired with a breakout of the bottom share-accumulation chip peak—

That’s a perfect flip.

But now the wind is blowing—you have no choice. Everyone is rising globally, so we rise with them.

Still, it’s just this big single bullish candle. If it repairs effectively here and hits the highest point on 3.20—

Then you can directly look for a flip.

So if here is still just a rebound, then the rebound today is a bit too much.

It’s step-by-step to the finish line—there isn’t much room left for rebound.

It can only prove that today’s rebound long bullish candle, the synchronized sentiment climax, is an effective turning point.

So in the future, the market can’t shrink volume too much. It still needs to run above one-third of the bullish candle’s range.

It will shake in the replaced area.

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Sentiment is sentiment**

Sentiment cycle is sentiment cycle
**
Theme cycle is theme cycle**

Sentiment is sentiment

Thursday: 27 stocks hit the daily limit, 5 hit the daily floor; 1 stock with consecutive limits; 5 stocks on the large board, over 10% red; 15

Stocks that got stuck after breaking the limit: 18; touched the daily floor: 17. Number of red-chart stocks: 893. Total market: 31. Market volume energy: 18430. Failed limit rate: 40%

Top 20 by trading volume: -2.2%, 11 red. Highest turnover: 14.6B — 阳光电源 -5%

Friday: 36 stocks hit the daily limit, 24 hit the daily floor; 7 stocks with consecutive limits; 4 on the large board, over 10% red; 22

Stocks that got stuck after breaking the limit: 12; touched the daily floor: 36. Number of red-chart stocks: 698. Total market: 32. Market volume energy: 16565. Failed limit rate: 25%

Top 20 by trading volume: 1.05%, 12 red. Highest turnover: 17.6B — 中际旭创 4.21%

Tuesday: 93 stocks hit the daily limit, 4 hit the daily floor; 1 stock with consecutive limits; 7 on the large board; over 10% red: 18

Stocks that got stuck after breaking the limit: 26; touched the daily floor: 12; red-chart stocks: 3804. Total market: 68. Market volume energy: 16144. Failed limit rate: 21%

Top 20 by trading volume: 0.44%, 11 red. Highest turnover: 15.5B — 寒武纪 9.1%

Wednesday: 122 stocks hit the daily limit, 4 hit the daily floor; 3 consecutive limit stocks; 11 on the large board; over 10% red: 129

Stocks that got stuck after breaking the limit: 16; touched the daily floor: 11; red-chart stocks: 4878. Total market: 88. Market volume energy: 24345. Failed limit rate: 11%

Top 20 by trading volume: 5.1%, 18 red. Highest turnover: 26.4B — 中际旭创 11%

Wednesday—single day

Profiting effect: climax

General + big technology hit the limit-up wave

Consecutive-limit momentum: yesterday’s climax; today’s differentiation is a bit severe

The representative “relay” sentiment is not good

Sentiment stocks: the whole profit effect is low-level + oversold rebound pattern

Trend stocks: institutional stocks are strong

Money-losing effect

The “grouping” direction—identifiability—exclude longfei光纤 sector being too strong

Everything else is negative feedback

Sentiment cycle is sentiment cycle

**

**

It hasn’t effectively changed the consolidation structure.

So conservatively, we still treat it as a consolidation structure.

If this here is the second day of a new leg of the main upswing structure starting,

then after a divergence once in the future, it needs to continue upward and repair consecutively.

In this round of consolidation structure, there hasn’t been 3 days of repair—at most two days of repair.

If tomorrow continues with strong repair, then here has a chance to form a new sentiment cycle’s main upswing 1.

Theme cycle

A-type theme cycle: one unites the river and lakes, dominates the whole arena (commercial aerospace, cross-strait ties)

For this kind of cycle, there’s really no need to analyze other themes. Just go for the leader and do follow-up support plays—watch the main line. Looking at other lines is a sin.

B-type theme cycle: multiple themes run in parallel; chaotic dominance, everything turns upside down (MY war in the first quarter of 2026)

In this kind of cycle, there is no absolute main line. But each line has its own discernible identity, and low-level follow-up can supplement late. It also can follow a rhythm.

At present, it’s still a B-type cycle.

Theme strength

**

**

The strongest intraday theme: compute power, 22805
The strongest intraday sub-segment: liquid cooling, 7246

25 limit-up stocks for the full day

Liquid cooling: 9 + compute power leasing: 16

Follow-up winners: 中安科 (identifiability), 奥瑞德, 宏景科技, 东方国信

Overall, in the entire second quarter—one cycle played out extremely “seductively.”

Main upswing 1: 7 strong directions

Main upswing 2: overseas compute power is strong

On 4.1, that was the first time it broke through the platform.

At the open, it was basically a soft positive with the “compute power bank.”

美利云 and 奥瑞德 hit limit-up first, but there was no back-row response.

Pharma then came from behind and became the strongest theme in stage two.

The next day, everything got wiped out completely.

Main upswing 3: today’s open was pharma as the strongest, but still no back-row follow-through.

Then compute power, the latecomer, ended up becoming the strongest intraday.

Where’s the sickening part here?

No matter it’s main upswing 1, 2, or 3—

quantitative trading keeps doing one stage at low levels nonstop.

Then after resonance in that direction, once high-level discernibility forms consensus—

the next day it immediately switches to another direction to rotate.

So here, you can basically understand it as a three-stage cycle.

But these two days’ main upswing: the first day saw the explosion in chemical and oil, and today it’s gone. You can understand that too—after all, it’s been softened, and futures prices fell.

Today doing compute power and tech can also be understood—because if the real ceasefire lasts 2 weeks, then compute power that’s been suppressed for a long time should explode.

But even then, it’s still rotating through low-level one-stage oversold themes.

Today, you could say the “legit” rotation is AI applications.

And I don’t even know where that logic came from.

April’s国产 compute power has two big things:

First, deepseek v4 release in mid-April

Second, the adaptation and incremental sales expectations for Huawei Ascend 950

Mainly, it’s about post-ceasefire game theory being positively correlated with the index-related themes.

Overseas compute power

PCB boards are the strongest—10 limit-ups. Yesterday was PCB copper-clad laminates.

Today’s strongest is printed circuit boards.

Then optical communications—9 stocks at limit-up

Fewer fiber-optic, more optical modules.

Gas turbines—8 limit-ups

This is overseas compute power, but it’s not an overseas big-factory industrial chain.

Within this direction, the sub-divisions rotate and do follow-up very fast.

Exclude the earlier “fiber-optic” grouping theme—it had no lasting follow-through.

Otherwise, it’s basically one shot in one place, then you move to another.

长飞光纤 as the leader in this direction is a tough one to time. Anyway, it’s just lagging.

But it doesn’t fall. If it doesn’t drop, low-level follow-up won’t break off.

This direction looks consistent every day,

but the follow-up sub-divisions keep swapping back and forth—actually, it’s not consistent.

Because there’s no profit-taking accumulation on the same stock.

Pharma: this three-stage transition was extremely messy.

If we say this is three stages, then overseas compute power is the strongest.

国产算力 still is nothing because there’s no core sustained leadership leading the charge.

Today pharma tried to rotate into stage three, but overseas compute power and国产算力 blocked it.

From the sector chart, it definitely didn’t rotate into a full stage-three three-stage move.

Individual stocks only left the early form of a stage-three structure.

美诺华 needs to see whether tomorrow continues to strengthen and leads a return flow.

At the low level, there are still 百花 and 金陵药业.

Stage-two sentiment follow-up: 津药 and 转点 for position-taking, plus trend-type follow-up 万邦德—all negative feedback.

But honestly, with this kind of backdrop, expectations for a stage-three rotation aren’t high today.

Unless the market and sentiment directly turn to a downtrend tomorrow—which is still unlikely.

Other semiconductors are pretty chaotic. Earlier there was some going into optical chips.

Now it has turned into国产半导体 advanced manufacturing.

But there’s still no core identifiable theme.

Summary

Profiting effect: climax. Sentiment at high levels is very poor; low levels are strong.

It’s highly split/contradictory.

Sentiment cycle: still within a large chaotic structure.

Theme cycle: quant traders go head-on at low-level themes with some news stimulus in one stage.

Then they connect it with the old cycles.

There’s width, but no height.

The “height” is all about being in a tight group.

Low-level explosion into a limit-up wave—if a sector doesn’t resonate at high-level leaders, then those high-level types just get cut and fall behind.

Key points (Nodes)
**
03.24**

It’s effective, but not the best node.

新能泰山 is okay. Since the optical communications sector was strong, when it hit a break in the limit, there wasn’t negative feedback.

奥瑞德 took the initiative to lead. But here, the capital still isn’t willing to relay right-side new-high stocks. Tomorrow is again a test.

万邦德: today pharma weakened—he’s responsible for all of it.

舒华体育: the grouping dissolved.

美诺华: this one-word limit up top was weird. XDD all said it’s gone—an impersonator, not the real one. And its other few stocks also had negative feedback.

长飞光纤: the sector is strong, but no matter how you look at it, it’s awkward—when the Hong Kong side surged, what was it doing?

As for whether the first board on 04.08 is a new resonance index-sentiment node, it’s hard to say.

Need to observe over the next few days.

The quant era: it can’t beat quant objectivity; the only thing that can beat quant is human subjectivity.

My subjectivity is:

More stage-three actions from old cycles—to complete the missing parts.

In the end, the anchor to focus on is still 长飞光纤.

If it doesn’t retreat during the tide, then there won’t be a next new cycle.

Today is a climax. Tomorrow’s normal expectation is differentiation.

The strength of the differentiation depends on the market’s volume.

Here, if the market can form an upward trend and not revert to the box’s lower-trend line,

then consecutive-limit plays are basically finished. More of what you’ll play is the trend main-up model.

Key stock commentary
**
华胜天成**

**

**

This stock’s main issue is that there aren’t really any overhead trapped-chip peaks.

Basically, everything has been ground down at the bottom—meaning when you lift it up, it doesn’t have to break through trapped chips.

It’s about whether there’s capital willing to go long, but there’s no “first mover” trapped sell pressure to dump downward.

And today, it already broke through the high of 03.20.

The market is only now repairing the K chart of 03.23, and there’s still a distance from 03.20.

But I didn’t expect that even like this, it still didn’t hit the daily limit—what a piece of trash.

If later it proves that this is an effective node and that today’s failure to hit the daily limit were all trash,

then this stock’s status in retail investors’ minds is extremely high.

It didn’t hit limit-up today, so its popularity is still top 10.

This is one of the few domestic compute-power stocks that, from 2024 to today, is a 10x-type winner.

Not key stock commentary.

奥瑞德

On 4.1, there was no back row. The next day at the open, it didn’t meet expectations.

Today it was all back-row follow-through—shouldn’t the system have given it a high premium?

Tomorrow, let’s see whether it can effectively continue and break through.

In a differentiation day: either don’t do it, or if you do, focus even more on the front row.

The biggest problem with domestic compute power right now is that it has no performance.

I originally thought it would need to wait until around 4.22 for all disclosures to finish.

And at the same time, MY would also have the “rider” settle down.

But today it exploded into an epic tako.

Those who want to study deeply can go to the blogger’s homepage.

Below are articles with lots of publicly shared learning content.

A collection of good stuff (a large catalog of good stuff articles) directory

A historical review of sentiment cycles—learn from history to know rise and decline. Directory

A sentiment cycle video explanation—if you watch it, everyone says it’s great. Why don’t you also take a look?

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