[Red Envelope] 0408: How to Find Certainty in a Broad Rally? A Detailed Explanation of the Logic for Participating at Low Levels and the Core Understanding of the Old Dragon's Rebound!

I am Yi, a professional stock trader. [TaoStock]
In trading, aesthetics determine the ceiling.
My approach: focus only on the most proactive core, refusing passive trend-chasing arbitrage.
There’s no ambiguity here—only real-time, on-the-screen play-by-play before the move and the logic for entries and exits.
If I can’t understand a stock, I won’t touch it. If I can, I’ll hold it with heavy position sizing.
New friends: watch for three days. If you gain nothing, please unfollow.

OK brothers, as of now through April, we’re still maintaining a winning streak. The trading logic has been recorded in past posts—if you’re sincerely interested, you can go check the previous posts yourself.
Now, to get to the point, here’s today’s trading review.
I. Today’s trades:
1) Take profit on Citic Shares (Cuiwei Co.).
In yesterday’s post, I talked about the logic for Cuiwei. On one hand, the Strait of Hormuz using RMB settlement promotes the internationalization of the RMB. On the other hand, it was also, under yesterday’s group-stock hype climax, a switch to relatively lower positions.
The calming news in the morning—funds voted with their feet. Sinopec Capital was written off (rejected), and that was impossible to predict. Then Cuiwei’s passive low open was within expectations. What matters is whether, at the open, it can separate from Sinopec Capital. So in the follow-up comments, I also told everyone clearly: if Cuiwei opens and holds upward—able to quickly turn red—then you can be patient. If it opens downward and drifts lower together with Sinopec Capital, then you exit.
Watch for 3 seconds at the open: Cuiwei holds upward; Sinopec Capital passively follows. So here we define Cuiwei’s essence as a passive low open, and naturally you can be patient and sell at a good price.
But within the day, Sinopec Capital’s performance made it clear that Cuiwei’s promotion/upgrading was rather unlikely—so it was an arbitrage exit.
The essence of this trade is still to teach everyone how selling should be sold.
Many people pursue the hope of selling at the highs, but too often what happens is you watch your position stock get weaker and weaker, yet you keep YYYing and waiting for a rebound before you finally leave.
As a short-term trader, your sell point must always be linked to the sector’s core anchor—in other words, once you have the core anchor clear in your mind, handling a stock’s sell point will be more composed. It’s not about just staring at the minute-by-minute chart jumping up and down.
2) New intraday position: Nanjing Yaoye.
Let’s talk about the logic.
First, from the opening auction in the morning, the pharmaceutical sector seems like it’s outperforming expectations.
But if you analyze carefully, that “outperformance” is actually the stock’s effect—not the sector’s spontaneous outperformance. This point is important.
First, in the morning opening auction, the biggest order was from Baihua Pharmaceuticals. This is a state-owned asset takeover theme, and after the resumption from suspension, it’s within expectations for a one-price limit-up.
Second is Menovo Pharma, which enjoyed extreme seat premium, and then that in turn pushed New Tian Pharmaceutical into a one-price limit-up.
So here, as the consecutive-limit leader in a chain—JinYao (JinYi)—no matter how it opens, it’s passive. The strength is being “capped” by Menovo Pharma, meaning a passive high open. Within the day, there’s only a sell point, not a buy point.
From another angle, in the pre-market strategy it was also discussed: JinYao’s expectation today is a limit break (board break).
First, in this round of pharmaceuticals, the strength is not as strong as power/utility. So the probability that JinYao can match the height of Liaoneng is relatively small. Therefore, intraday speculation is all about the board-break expectation of JinYao.
Everyone can trace back to the time when I gave hints: Nanjing Yaoye is a participation after a second round of returning to the board. And in the morning, I was thinking—if the only logic is that JinYao breaks the board and you bet on low-position補涨 (falling-to-rise catch-up), can that logic hold up?
When intraday funds go to push Nanjing Yaoye to the board, is it simply doing a catch-up play? After all, at that time, the one-price limit-up New Tian Pharmaceutical hadn’t blown up yet.
Later, the decision to participate in the return-to-board play is because aside from just betting on catch-up, there’s another layer of logic for the funds: to “trade alongside” Baihua’s turnover.
First, New Tian was topped with a one-price limit-up early in the day. This board was also pushed up by Baihua’s momentum in a sense—funds top New Tian, essentially also betting on Baihua’s “position/seat” (relative standing) being accompanied.
But what the funds need is turnover-consolidating capital that can provide follow-through. If you are topped with a one-price limit-up in the early morning, naturally the funds wouldn’t choose New Tian to do that seat-position follow-through. So instead, they shifted to do the turnover second board on Nanjing Yaoye.
Once you understand this logic, I publicly exposed the opportunity for Nanjing Yaoye to do the turnover second return.
As for the late-session board blow-off, the essence is still that there’s disagreement between on-exchange and off-exchange capital. On-exchange capital focuses on the loss-making effect of JinYao and New Tian. Off-exchange capital focuses on the seat-position accompanied-by Baihua logic. So when it blows up late and then gets a back-to-board close by off-exchange funds, it has relatively stronger “quality” (better character).
So tomorrow, if funds want to correct today’s loss-making effect in the pharmaceutical sector, the second-board Nanjing Yaoye is actually a point the funds can’t bypass.

II. Today’s review:
In yesterday’s article, I output some subjective thinking.
First, I stated yesterday’s viewpoint clearly: JinYao was included by funds into the “group-trade/conglomerate” bucket. Why did I classify JinYao as group-trade? Yesterday’s main post already explained it pretty clearly, so I won’t repeat it here.
And yesterday was the peak of group-trade. In essence, it happened because after Fal Sheng (Farl Sheng) escaped the abnormal move, it accelerated “on the explicit playbook” (mingpai acceleration).
And besides JinYao, the stocks driven by Fal Sheng yesterday also included Xinneng Taishan, which reversed and made a third consecutive board move with acceleration.
So yesterday, I made a clear viewpoint: when group-trade starts accelerating in a “mingpai” (explicit) way, once the chips loosen, the loss-making effect is huge.
So for yesterday, I personally avoided group-trade—I only watched, not participated.
As for today, the viewpoints from yesterday’s article have been validated.
In the morning, Fal Sheng dropped about one tick (a notch) from the limit-down during the auction end because it was hit by JG.
JinYao opened near the limit-up level after being pushed up from a low position.
Xinneng Taishan opened high.
And the intraday movement is shown in the chart below.

(White line: Xinneng Taishan; Blue line: JinYao Pharma; Pink line: Fal Sheng)
Actually, from the intraday time-share overlap chart of the three, it’s also clear. Fal Sheng hit limit-down at the auction, and at the open it quickly surged to around the 0 axis. At that time, it pushed JinYao and Xinneng Taishan onto their boards.
Then when Fal Sheng’s intraday line became dull/flat (time-sharing inflection) and started turning downward, Xinneng and JinYao almost simultaneously blew their boards.
So if you were looking by board-sector anchor—for example, JinYao: a low-position one-price limit-up from Menovo, New Tian still topped with a one-price limit-up at the time, and Nanjing also got a turnover board, and in the low positions Baihua had a big order one-price limit-up. With JinYao matching Liaoneng’s height—if you choose to hold chips, then you can only be distributing.
Xinneng Taishan is the same. Communications are so strong intraday, yet Xinneng still can’t be pushed back into a back-to-board close.
The core reason is that all three were defined by the market as having group-trade attributes—so when the intraday pseudo-reversal state (普反) occurs and the group-trade falls apart, you understand what that means.

Keep talking.
Everyone, review for yourselves the pre-market strategy I wrote for you in the morning.
One sentence clearly stated in the strategy: after observing whether JinYao’s limit break happens in the day, and whether there is a first board after a pullback from an old dragon to take over the short-term money-making effect that comes after JinYao breaks the board. The pre-market alternates were Huadian Liaoneng and Hangdian Co. The alternate Liaoneng is because when JinYao had a volume breakout disagreement board, Liaoneng’s minute-by-minute and order book abnormalities, and the fact it held strong throughout the day, all showed strong follow-through.
As for the alternate Hangdian: when Liaoneng breaks the board, Hangdian carries a wave of reversal and comeback (back-to-board) profit effect because it came with fiber-optic cabling/optical fiber theme.
But intraday, the funds chose Shenjian.
Many friends ask: why did funds choose Shenjian to do the old-dragon rebound after JinYao’s limit break?
Here I’ll attach a chart for everyone, and then you’ll all understand.

(Blue K: Liaoneng; Red K: Shenjian)
Shenjian is the first board that launched first after Liaoneng’s board break.
After that, the power/utility sector retreated for 4 days. Shenjian then had a 4-day run with 4 boards, carrying the profit effect from after Liaoneng’s board break.
So during the day, I asked everyone in the middle of the session: do you know which old-dragon rebound stock after JinYao’s board break carried the profit effect that funds chose? A lot of friends answered correctly.
And once again, the same line: even if you don’t buy, it’s fine. But at least you learn the thinking. Can you later handle similar cycles independently?
I think that’s the value of why everyone follows me—not just because of copy-trading.

Today, although the pseudo-rebound (普反) happened, it’s more because of a geopolitical conflict that led to a deep sell-off in big tech, and then today it started to rebound.
For short-term traders, if you haven’t survived a deep sell-off in general tech/overlapping tech, then this pseudo-rebound is likely not going to earn you much profit.
But how can you find a signal with certainty for a pseudo-rebound day? First, remove the condition “pseudo-rebound”—no matter how the market rises, it has nothing to do with your trading.
All you need is to focus: today is the key node of JinYao’s limit break.
Either go try a trade at the low position, or go do an old-dragon rebound after the new dragon breaks the board.
Those two are the most certain things.
By saying it this way, do you understand, everyone?
Don’t just watch the broad-market rise and feel FOMO anxiety. Without your buy signal, anxiety will only throw your mindset out of balance.

III. Summary
Today’s trades: Take profit on Cuiwei (sell-point anchored to Sinopec Capital; after a passive low open shifted into follow-through, then exit with patience); open a position in Nanjing Yaoye (turnover second return-to-board; betting on Baihua’s “turnover accompaniment” plus JinYao’s limit-break catch-up).
Market core: After group-trade “mingpai acceleration,” it dissolved as expected (Fal Sheng → JinYao/Xinneng Taishan linked board-blow). Don’t be anxious on pseudo-rebound days—focus on nodes: low-position trials after JinYao breaks the board, or old-dragon rebounds.
Teaching points:

1. Sell points should be linked to the sector’s core anchor, not dead-staring the time-share chart.
2. Stock selection for old-dragon rebounds: find a stock that first launches right after the previous round’s leader breaks the board, and that carries the profit effect (e.g., Shenjian in relation to Liaoneng).
3. Certainty on pseudo-rebound days is not in the broad-market rally itself, but in the gaming around cycle nodes.
   The winning streak continues, but more important than a streak is how much you’ve learned.

Thanks to the brothers who rewarded in the previous post.
@Zhu Shishunyi888, #1 on the leaderboard—thanks to Brother Shunyi for the 2000 points. Wishing you a limit-up every day!
@H111c@Waymo@羊羊胜意@安仔520, #2 on the leaderboard—thanks to C President, Brother W, Brother Shengyi, and Brother Anzi for the points. Wishing all 4 of you a limit-up every day.
@风飞云@几克@魔方少女郭德纲@韭韭归溢@羡鱼twig@大鹏一日同风起l@咋地zadia@陈筱群@诺亚悟道@人民路饼摊@一曲高歌接着舞@分时信天翁@五月太阳@赚够一个亿就退休@梦舞清愁@炒过去炒未来@大A赚钱就辞职@一颗肥嫩韭菜@跳崖土豆@法号了然@斌咖咔@哈尔滨@酒菜199@始终成长的韭菜@冲锋的号角之启航@大锅煮饺子@虞城小豪@嘎啦脆果@强悍如水@股海船长@桑德瑞
Thank you to the above 36 brothers for the point support.

@果壳里的世界, @股海船长, @H111c, @法号了然, @小旭聊天下, @魔方少女郭德纲, @华哥20200309, @羊羊胜意, @招财猫福福, @几克, @羡鱼twig, thank you to the above 11 for supporting with encouragement coupons!

Brothers, my task is done. Now it’s up to you.
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