Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

MeNews · 2026-04-08T12:31:42+00:00

ME News Report, April 4th (UTC+8): The United States released its non-farm payroll report on Friday, showing 178k new jobs added, well above expectations. Additionally, the February data was revised from an initial estimate of a decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. This report, amid the reduced probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, provided short-term support for the dollar. The Iran war enters its sixth week, and the quick resolution scenario involving Trump is beginning to collapse. The market's more critical test is also approaching: the first CPI report since the outbreak of war is about to be released, and inflation may surge. Some warn that "now is not the time to trade." Here are the key market focus points for the upcoming week (all times Beijing time): - Monday 22:00: US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday 23:00: US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations - Wednesday 00:35: FOMC voting member for 2027, Chicago Fed President

MeNews

2026-04-08 12:31:42

ME News update: On April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its nonfarm employment report on Friday, showing that the country added 178,000 jobs, well above expectations. Meanwhile, February’s data was revised downward from the initially estimated decrease of 92,000 to a decrease of 133,000. Against the backdrop of lower probabilities for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick decisive” script associated with Trump is starting to fall apart. More critical tests for the market are also on the way: the first CPI after the outbreak of the war is set to be released. Inflation could soar to alarming levels, and some have warned that “this is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, remarks on monetary policy by 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, the U.S. February core PCE price index (year-over-year), U.S. February personal spending (month-over-month), the final estimate of U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter, the final estimate of U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter, the final estimate of U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter, and the U.S. February core PCE price index month-over-month. Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI (year-over-year)/core CPI (year-over-year), and the U.S. March adjusted CPI (month-over-month)/core CPI (month-over-month). Friday 22:00, the initial value of the U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectation, the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, and U.S. February factory orders (month-over-month) (source: PANews)

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