[Red Envelope] 4.8 Review; Temporary Ceasefire in the Outer Market, How to Capture the Trend of the Shun Index? Vita's Big Picture Perspective Guides You in Timing and Stock Selection!

Evening tensions ease temporarily; China-Iran and Iran-U.S. reach a temporary truce. In early trading, all Japanese and South Korean and mainland-Japan-related counters open higher across the board. In the short term, the index continues to churn within a range. The biggest impact comes from uncertainty in the periphery. Once the situation eases, you can immediately see liquidity flowing back. Just wait and see what comes next for the index行情！[TaoGuBa]

Short-term conviction:
People who are extremely hungry for success are already infinitely close to it.
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How big someone’s willpower is, how strong their drive is. That kind of thirst for success can unleash endless and inexhaustible momentum—it will keep them moving forward, again and again.**
What truly rewrites fate is never luck, but that burning, heart-searing desire. When someone engraves success into their bones, obsession turns into a blade that cuts through thorns and brambles. All fatigue, all doubts, all setbacks become stepping stones.
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Those who set lofty ambitions—heaven will not fail them; those who make great vows—matters will come to fruition.**
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This scorching sense of purpose is your hardest ace in the hole. It can help you grind out ten-thousand-foot light on days when nobody asks about you!**
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Welcome, everyone new to the ice-cold crowd—vita is a longtime “Long-Kong Long” selector. What I usually do is wait for the moment of certainty and hit big with concentrated positions. I share in real time in the comments: in the short term, you can harvest excess profits. And when it’s a trading day with no position, I’ll also provide real-time trade breakdowns for everyone, helping you understand the underlying logic of the capital game—so every friend can treat the tape from the perspective of a prop-trader!**

For the ice-cold crowd getting ready to review and replay, please give a like first! Like to welcome the limit-up—holdings stay red all the way! Like, bring in money, meet good fortune!

Today’s trade: all-in limit-up to realize gains; put cash into Jin药药业 and go flat (no position).

1. Market sentiment cycle; when splendor fades, you see the true purity—after the ice point comes new life!
1. Index environment, thematic evolution
Today’s market needs to be split into two segments to look at: short-term trading and repair direction. The issue I kept talking about last night concerns a drawback in short-term trading. Here, Xin DuoDuo’s involvement in MinoPharm (美诺华) started testing seat premium. Usually with this kind of setup, the next day tends to have a reverse impact—whether it’s high-level, mid-level, or a trend stock—people can easily take the opportunity to distribute. So last night I emphasized this point especially. Today’s short-term trading also “successfully” played out this script: in the pharma sector, large “faceslap” losses are everywhere.

Second, regarding the repair direction: with easing tensions in the periphery, everything opened higher together. That corresponds to A-shares basically also having expectations to open higher—there’s no real suspense there. After the market opened with volume and gap-up, computing power and broad tech pushed out several one-word limit-ups, guiding the early collective offensive of opening-trading capital. For thematic repair in the tech sector, big themes generally split into a few directions. After the open, the first thing lifted was computing power; next came PCB and CPO. When there’s disagreement in pharma, commercial aerospace flows back. Then the index started to stabilize. The oversold rebound in AI software also repaired for a round, but in the end it never formed a strong consensus into an effective direction. Remember, in the morning there was nearly 500 billion yuan in turnover (volume). With this kind of signal, capital still couldn’t form focus. If capital can’t focus, the afternoon’s action becomes critical—if it can’t focus, capital will treat it as an intraday repair, and then the continuity is hard to confirm.

At the close, it still maintained the early rotation pattern. In the current stage, as long as the periphery situation doesn’t break down, the index going up won’t have a problem. Bottom line: you still need to watch the zz level.
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2. Index cycle**
In the earlier deep-dive posts, I emphasized to everyone the anchoring concept of index cycles. This index cycle is clearly tied to pharma starting its bounce on 3.24. Until today’s 4.8—after Jin药断板 (Jin药 breaks the board)—the market had its third large-volume repair of the broader market, triggering a round of broad market strength. Benefiting from market support, this pharma wave did not experience an extreme “withdrawal,” so there’s also an expectation that it can pull up again later. As for where the index is now, you need to see whether tomorrow can extend the repair; if it does, the new cycle will be confirmed. Meanwhile, the old cycle’s stance also, to a certain extent, indicates the new cycle’s theme certainty. So at this point, you need to hold two expectations:
(1) 3.24 bounce is the first-stage cycle—through 4.8 pharma’s temporary “main upswing end.” It’s only temporarily ended, not confirmed ended. The trigger factors are Jin药药业’s board break and WanBANGDE’s five-day pullback and shakeout.

(2) 4.8 starts a new cycle, the second stage. The market has not yet competed out an effective theme. Computing power, CPO, PCB, power supplies, liquid cooling, AI applications, metals—all have shown up. Tech is the strongest all day: 111 limit-up stocks on the day, all first boards. Participation points at least require waiting for the move from two-days-up (二进三). You need to see what sub-sector the market chooses tomorrow. This node is still “to be decided.” On 4.9, it must pull out a second bullish candle to confirm.

If it holds, there’s a chance to replicate the new starting point of last year’s 6.23. Keep your spirits up—together we grasp the new cycle!

2. Analysis of core individual stocks; among the many shares, see the true dragon’s backbone!
(1) Pharma
Sentiment core: Jin药药业
In the morning, MinoPharm went one-word in reverse, pushing high-level capital to distribute directly. Intraday, Jin药 then staged a board-book “faceslap” by hitting a big negative. This stock is the absolute sentiment marker of this pharma main upswing. This kind of selloff at this level will, to a certain extent, affect the subsequent expectation that capital will continue to chase height. So in the short term, you should first reduce the “high board” height in pharma, shift your focus back to trend-direction. You can find that the ones flowing back by late day are trends—for example, Jiuan Medical (九安医疗). As long as Jin药 doesn’t get a muffled kill tomorrow, it counts as completing the task.

Before the dragon: MinoPharm
Prop-traders’ aesthetics have always been on point. With Xin Zong’s support yesterday, today this one directly topped a one-word board. In the market, both on-exchange and off-exchange capital would think that today’s upside is “over the top,” and would reflect back to strengthen the sector. But in reality it won’t be like that. Night time I’ll keep analyzing for everyone—be alert to the risk that capital uses the moment to distribute. Today also directly proved that line of thinking. However, within the day, pharma is already under pressure. Tomorrow’s impact will be negligible. Since the premium in bonds is relatively high right now, just pay close attention to that (多多注意) and you’re fine.

Trend cores: WanBANGDE and Jiuan Medical
The sector divergence pulled back in trend-following fashion. This kind of move today is actually quite good. In the case of subsequent repair, there are also expectations for prioritized repair. Tomorrow’s observation point is whether the sector’s trend is continuing to strengthen—this stock is also one of the key points to watch.
As for Jiuan Medical, just focus on five-day line support.

For the rest—Nanjing Pharma (金陵药业), Baihua Pharma (百花医药)—in the sector’s third wave, you need to see which of these two can raise the banner.

(2) Computing power
Sentiment leader: ZhongAnKe
On the computing power side, the strength in the morning wasn’t actually driven by this stock to push back. Capital mainly anchored on the first-board issues—HangGang Stock (杭钢股份). And this stock’s biggest advantage is it has two “positions” of room compared to others. Tomorrow you’ll need to watch feedback. If HangGang can’t advance, this one’s difficulty is also relatively high. If not, and capital continues to choose computing power as the vehicle, then there’s also expectation of advancement. Anchor on HangGang—you’re good.

Multi-attribute: China International Engineering Consultant (中工国际)
This stock currently has relatively few computing power attributes. More of it is Middle East reconstruction attribute. After all, under ceasefire/truce expectations, there will also be reconstruction demand later. The logic is pretty similar to how Russian-Ukrainian reconstruction was being traded back then. The key point to watch next is whether computing power can be separated (分离) from it—also a kind of buy-point anchoring.

One-word sets the direction in the morning: HangGang股份
Today’s sector strengthening is inseparable from the contribution of this one. So tomorrow’s strength will also reflect anchoring to the whole sector. Just remember one sentence: if this one can’t advance, then you need to lower your expectations for the sector.

3. Sector analysis; use the sector as the pulse to watch the market’s changing winds!

1. Pharma: tomorrow’s pharma direction is relatively critical. You need to make two plans. If capital chooses repair, then you need to see whether capital’s preference is trend-following or continuing連板 (staying on consecutive limit-ups). Personally, I think in most cases it will switch toward trend. WanBANGDE has the value of a turning point. But if capital doesn’t choose to repair the pharma direction, then in the short term the most likely outcome is to go flat and wait for the market to choose—because as shared during the day, making an entry from the index-following direction was a buy point today. Once you choose to trade the turn (拐点) in the short term, you definitely have to give up the index-following direction entries. Just sit tight and wait for tomorrow’s market evolution!

2. Computing power: judging from today’s tiers, the computing power direction has the most complete ladder. But the worst part of this direction is only that the chip structure isn’t clear enough. Still, maintain the above view on the individual stocks: only China International Engineering Consultant’s (中工国际) later separation value matters. The chip structures of other stocks are too complicated. If the index can’t move into sustained repair, then sector continuity will be very poor—very likely to see one day of climax and one day of selloff.

3. Broad tech direction: for broad tech, it’s more about watching the sentiment cycle of the overall market. That means if tomorrow the market pulls out another bullish candle, then this tech wave very likely will replicate last June’s institutional trend, and the timing now also matches the institutions’ direction dominance, since commercial aerospace basically didn’t do much work after it ended. In the middle of the day, I also shared in time some core anchors for those who want to participate in this direction—for example, picking core stocks from the turnover ranking list. Going forward, during intraday I’ll also share in real time the actions of institutional buy orders.

4. Tomorrow’s trading plan; use the plan as an anchor—wait for tomorrow’s blossoms!
For reference only, not investment advice!
Tomorrow should focus on observation. Opening trades is the least important part. You must see certainty before opening positions!
1. China International Engineering Consultant (中工国际): being able to separate computing power is also a decent outward-cut direction. For the three-board stage, observe whether ZhongAnKe (中安科) breaks its board. For the first board, observe whether HangGang股份 (杭钢股份) fails to advance. Only when both of these do not succeed in advancing does China International Engineering Consultant have a buy point. So you need to anchor it. The expectations and amounts at the opening call auction aren’t important—the important thing is whether computing power can be separated.
（Note: I’m using a “Long-Kong Long” style. I don’t have a habit of splitting positions. All entries are全仓c (all-in).）

5. Thought questions; when tides rise and fall, what is your true heart
In this round of market, do you think institutions should be played as trend-following candidates? For pharma, what view do you have—does it retreat and withdraw, or does disagreement keep turning into consistency!

I hope other friends who recognize me can please like more, give me more encouragement. Support the review post so the article data looks good, and attracts more fans to follow—this is the motivation for my continuous updates! It’s also the motivation for me to share my live trades. After 10,000 fans, I’ll apply to do live sessions. From my perspective as if looking from above, in this place you can understand the short-term trading rules—everyone can become a short-term trading expert! @吕驴驴 @子非鱼88 @青岛大崂路 @多维辩证交易体系 @裴振昊 @如何自我救赎 @启航2023年 @钉钉子大叔 @行势 @真的炒股难以养家 @洪洪 @想找欢乐的一只马 @陆壹小路 @镰刀哥2025 @阳春三月6789 @你来追我呀11 @琦绩 @血肉之躯 @神话junjin @汤姆斯基 @招财猫福福 @幽默短线客 @破茧识光 @韭菜不9 @勍杨 @打板客服 @YOYo @笨笨1113 @果壳里的世界 @静待花开chen @Jay刘教 @股海船长 @金何跃 @胖征征 @海伦仙度丝 @雪儿紫千 @玺媛 @单兵阿骏 @明小少 @H111c @红柱喷泉 @Brooks恺 @比尔菲特666 @文烨民
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Also thanks to friends who are cheering me on!**
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