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Hold the shares steady. Livermore: 4.8 Review Record
Just briefly, here’s today’s market action. [Taoguba]
During this period, I’ve kept my positions unchanged, holding through the losses. As of today, things are roughly back to the highest-profit point from March—also my best-profit point this year. If the stocks I hold continue rising tomorrow and break the new record for this year’s returns, whether I can achieve that will depend on whether tomorrow’s market can sustain its strength.
In a big rebound, everyone makes money—at this point, you shouldn’t worry about any issues. Tomorrow the market will continue the rebound, but tomorrow is naturally when differentiation will be much more pronounced. Today saw broad-based big gains, and the trading volume in the afternoon didn’t keep expanding. Tomorrow there won’t be that strong follow-through. The capital that missed the move today has been going into ETFs to participate. This can be taken as the market institutions’ signal that they recognize this low point.
As for the current market, I still have a relatively positive outlook on PCB and memory. These two directions are the performance lines for this month. For the other performance lines to rise, you can’t get around the upside space in PCB and memory. If these two themes can’t effectively rebound with strong momentum, then the other performance-line moves won’t be able to start.
Tomorrow’s market will likely be a scenario where it gaps up first, then stays in mild consolidation throughout the day. As market differentiation appears, the “follow-through” moves from today begin to pull back. The moves that the market recognizes will continue to climb tomorrow. After these themes, there will definitely need to be expectations—driven by earnings or catalysts from the news environment. Here, focus on how strong the momentum can be tomorrow. In a strong scenario, chasing higher actually means you’re entering an acceleration phase of the rally.
Hold the bottomed-out stocks and wait for them to go through the acceleration process during the rebound.