Been seeing a lot of chatter lately about whether a stock market crashing scenario could actually play out this year or next. The thing is, nobody really knows for sure, but some metrics are definitely worth paying attention to.

So here's what caught my eye. The Buffett indicator - basically comparing total US stock market value to GDP - just hit around 221%. For context, Warren Buffett famously used this exact metric to call out the dot-com bubble back in 2001. He basically said if this ratio gets near 200%, you're playing with fire. Last time it approached those levels was late 2021, right before the S&P 500 tanked into a bear market that dragged on through most of 2022.

Now, does that automatically mean a crash is coming? Not necessarily. Market movements are unpredictable, and metrics aren't foolproof. A lot has shifted in 25 years, so the Buffett indicator might not work the same way it used to. But still, it's worth thinking about.

Here's what I think matters more than trying to time the market though. If volatility does hit, the companies that survive are the ones with solid fundamentals. Strong businesses with real competitive advantages and proven leadership tend to weather downturns way better than hype-driven stocks that look great on the surface.

Right now feels like the perfect time to audit your portfolio honestly. Check your P/E ratios, look at earnings growth, see if your companies actually make sense long-term or if they're just riding momentum. If you spot anything weak or overextended, offloading it while prices are still elevated makes sense.

The reality is nobody can predict if the market's heading south in 2026 or beyond. But you don't need to predict it. You just need to own quality stocks you'd be comfortable holding through turbulence. That's the real insurance policy.