[Red Envelope] Watch for a rebound after the holiday; the main strategies for PCB and optical modules have proven effective. How will the second half of the week look?

I. Key Stock-by-Stock Notes to Keep Monitoring Continuously: [Taoqiba]

1. InnoLight（中际旭创）： Last Thursday and Friday saw the index pull back; the strong-stock signal was obvious. Yesterday afternoon, the moment it rose above the intraday moving averages after trading below them was an attack signal. Today it made a new all-time high, kicking off another round of an offensive move in the market. It’s worth continuing to track and observe.

2. Shenghong Technology（胜宏科技）： Last Thursday and Friday saw the index pull back; the strong-stock signal was obvious. February 6 and March 30 formed a large-scale double bottom. It completed the double-bottom pattern ahead of the broader market. Its listing in Hong Kong in April is coming up—so it’s worth continuing to track and observe.

3. Industry富联（工业富联）： A small double bottom was completed by the end of March. On March 31, the rebound signal officially kicked off. When the index pulled back last Thursday and Friday, the strong-stock signal remained clearly evident. Today, the rebound trend continues. It’s worth continuing to track and observe;

4. Xinwei Communications（信维通信）： It completed a small double bottom yesterday, and the rebound signal was clear. Today it successfully kicked off the rebound. It’s worth continuing to track and observe;

5. Jiangfeng Electronics（江丰电子）： Recently, its leading position among semiconductors has been very obvious. Yesterday the direction of “independent and controllable” showed signs of recovery. Today it continues to lead the offensive move. Still worth continuing to track and observe;

6. Yunnan Germanium（云南锗业） and Rongjie Co., Ltd.（融捷股份）： These older batch of leading stocks that started in resonance with the index on the 24th. The former is still above its 5-day moving average and hasn’t broken down; the latter, after pulling back, has stopped falling. Whether they can deliver a proper repair-and-rebound, and how the price action will further evolve—still worth watching.

Still that old saying: The market never disappoints people who truly understand it, but it will always harvest the gamblers who chase after rallies and cut down with fear.

II. Index:

1. Reasoning and Sorting Out the Index’s Origins and Development:

First, the New Year’s Day scenario had the index entering a correction by mid-March. After the correction, the scenario shifted to the reversal node on March 24. In this area, basically, the market has already provided confirmation.

Last Friday’s scenario anticipated that after Qingming, the index would come back and see a breakout-and-rebound. This part is exactly answered well by the index yesterday and today.

(Above is only to sort out the index’s origin and development used for review—meant as a recap of the scenario and a shout of praise after the market confirms it. It’s only for sorting out the index’s origin and development; long-time followers know that when it comes to the ability to forecast index turning points, there’s no need to hype it.)

2. Scenario for the Future Price Action:

Last Friday and the weekend, we discussed the index’s rebound rhythm for this week. Yesterday the rebound was relatively weak, but luckily the external conflict paused its escalation—so today provides assistance to this round of repair-and-rebound rhythm. Today the index directly broke through last week’s first rebound high point, so the strength of this rebound is there. In the short term, it can keep playing for a period of time.

Because the index is currently facing pressure from the half-year moving average, it’s possible that the second half of the week leans toward sideways movement.

Overall for the second half of the week: first, look at last week’s first rebound high as the support level. Most likely, the index will first consolidate and trade sideways on the support of last week’s rebound high, waiting for next week to choose a direction.

But for the big structure, it’s still not something that can easily change the possibility of the big structure’s second-quarter “right-foot” pullback just because of today’s external positive news. That said, I’ve been saying this: 2026 is a structural market. So even if the index may still pull back again in the second quarter, some sectors or individual stocks may complete the double bottom earlier and begin the main uptrend of 2026 ahead of the market.

For example, last Friday we found that Shenghong, as well as Cambricon（寒武纪）—these both completed a large-scale double bottom by the end of March ahead of the index. For stocks like InnoLight（中际旭创） as well: last Thursday and Friday, you could clearly identify that during those two days when the index adjusted, they displayed a “strong-stock” temperament, with the idea of starting ahead of the index. Yesterday it stood above the intraday yellow line—this was a signal of launching an attack. Today InnoLight made a new all-time high. In fact, objectively speaking, can you really say it definitely isn’t the start of a main uptrend? (Above is only using individual stocks as examples—commenting on chart structure. It cannot be taken as investment advice.)

So I’ve been saying: 2026 is a structural market. What matters most is the ability to identify the start of structural rotation.

This is also why I keep saying: learn in the long term. Keep learning consistently. Only then can we together map out every market-turning rhythm and together identify the strong-stock signals of rotation-driven rallies in a structural market.

In summary, the scenario that after Qingming the market turns and moves upward, leading to a rebound, basically held true. For the second half of the week, it’s estimated to lean toward range-bound consolidation. Be cautious about chasing.

III. Sector Directions:

For the main post over the weekend—if everyone really paid attention— you would have found that this week we’re bullish on two major directions: 1 is computing power, 2 is resource prices rising.

Why did the main post over the weekend subjectively look favorably on these two directions—computing power and resource upstream price hikes?

First, on last Friday and during the Qingming holiday, we predicted and reasoned that after the holiday there would be a rebound. Second, everyone who studied together knows this clearly: because when we reasoned on our return this week, we looked for a rebound in the index, so last Friday we began identifying who was showing a strong-stock signal and who was likely to start right after the holiday. If on Friday you watched the market carefully and felt the signals from the order flow, you would clearly find that the entire computing-power overseas chain + domestic chain had a strong-stock temperament overall.

For example, last Thursday and Friday, the index declined two consecutive days. At that time, Shenghong, InnoLight（旭创）, and these optical-module names were strong. So this is essentially a strong-stock signal.

As for the resource price-rising side, the small-scale double-bottom pattern was just beginning to show, and it’s also relatively easier for a rebound to come.

Here, I’ll continue to maintain the weekend viewpoint and perspective and keep looking favorably at computing power and resource price-rising. The reason is simple: whether it’s computing power or rising prices, they’re all actually tied to first-quarter earnings expectations. Do you understand?

As the market enters the second quarter, in May, the first-quarter earnings reports for 2026 will start to be disclosed. So going forward, we should place more emphasis on earnings direction. In fact, there are already many sub-directions and targets with earnings-driven strong performance that are quietly strengthening. For instance, InnoLight and Shenghong are very clear examples.

Of course, at this point, we should also congratulate those classmates who—after InnoLight and Shenghong saw consecutive pullbacks in the past few days—managed to identify the signal that they were about to turn into a strong-stock launch. Everyone did great.

So I’ve been saying: in 2026’s structural market, don’t foolishly think it will be a broad market rally. It’s all about structural rotation. The focus is on the ability to identify strong-stock and launch signals. This is also why I keep emphasizing the importance of staying and learning together with a small group of people with high-level cognition.

Seriously, out there in March there was a main down-wave, and 80% of retail investors lost money by 30%—with half losses also being very common. Everywhere is like that. And if you improve your stock-picking ability by studying together, then in the March index’s main selling phase, you might identify the launch signal of a main uptrend in March 4 for DeMingLi（德明利）, and keep rising against the odds—rise without stopping.

On March 24, when others were just rotating to repair, you might identify the launch signals for Rongjie（融捷）, Yangtze Optical（长飞光纤）, Wanbangde（万邦德）, Yunnan Germanium（云南锗业）—and the opportunity to keep pushing forward and making new highs.

Last Thursday and Friday, when the index pulled back, while others panicked, you might identify strong-stock signals in technology computing-power directions like InnoLight（中际旭创）, Shenghong Technology, Industry富联（工业富联）, and InveK（英维克）.

So you see: as long as your ability is high, how could others run faster than you? They basically can’t outpace you. When others are getting cut in the index’s main sell-off and get halved, you have a main uptrend environment that can hedge against the main sell-off. When others are bouncing and rotating to repair and consolidate, in the deep ditch of the earlier main sell-off you climb back out to breakeven, and you keep attacking and making new highs— the gap… just keeps getting widened invisibly and gradually.

In summary, keep looking favorably at computing power and rising prices, and the first-quarter earnings direction. And as always: if you believe, keep believing; if you learn, keep learning. Trust yourself—we will keep sprinting toward the goal of “long-term stable growth”!

If you think the ideas I’ve been sharing along the way are meaningful (actually last Friday I said in the comments that this week should focus on technology computing power, right? I did mention it several times, didn’t I?), I also hope everyone can move your fingers and give our main post a like. If you have the means, help by tossing a cheer card to show support. Thank you. Your support is the motivation for me to keep sharing.

Finally, special thanks to the friends who gave cheers and tips on the previous main post: @圆小二 @Iamgroot @爱我军绿 @角羽徽 @米开朗基瑞 @大果儿冻冻 @翻身战 @老泪纵横 @书生1900 @叶子多多 @米开朗基瑞 @陈逗逗小韭黄 @林风123 @顺势86粉 @爱我军绿