Asset Rebalancing Under Geopolitical De-escalation

Title: Ceasefire Window—Don’t Mistake a Bounce for a Reversal

#加密市场回升 Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, temporarily easing Middle East tensions, but a “comprehensive halt to war” remains unrealistic. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz requires genuine compromise between Iran and the West, which currently seems very difficult. The short-term sharp drop in crude oil prices is a release of market sentiment; if negotiations break down, oil prices will quickly rebound.

In terms of allocation, I would:

· Crude Oil: Avoid shorting; wait for geopolitical tensions to rise again before lightly going long.
· Crypto Assets: Bitcoin breaking through $71k signals capital inflow, but it needs to stabilize above $70k. Consider gradually allocating to mainstream coins.
· Precious Metals: Gold and silver still serve as safe-haven core holdings. During the ceasefire, any pullback could present a buying opportunity.

The market is trading on “improved expectations,” but the reality remains fragile. Stay flexible.