First, create extreme uncertainty (military threats, ultimatums), then release signals of de-escalation when market sentiment is near the breaking point, packaging "pause" as "victory." This rhythm control is essentially no different from market manipulation in crypto—pumping, dumping, liquidating leverage—all about managing expectations.

More importantly, the signals are released in a mixed manner: hard signals like preparing for war and troop increases on one side, and soft signals like "progress in dialogue" on the other. This asymmetry of information fundamentally disturbs opponents' judgment, draining their patience and decision-making space.

All actions ultimately revolve around controlling the key channels of a truly "underlying asset." Conflict is just surface-level; liquidity is the core.

For investing, what matters is never just a single piece of good or bad news, but recognizing the full cycle:
When risks are amplified to the extreme, it often means the negotiation window is opening;
When the "victory narrative" begins to unify, be wary of expectations being fulfilled.

This macro logic applies on-chain as well.