19 million barrels of Russian oil are being "snapped up," while Iranian crude is being overlooked.

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Source: Jin 10 Data

After the U.S. side announced the sanctions exemptions, buyers are actively rushing to purchase Russian crude oil cargoes, but they are taking a more cautious stance toward Iranian cargoes.

To address the surge in energy prices caused by Middle East conflict, the Trump administration temporarily lifted restrictions on Russian and Iranian oil at the beginning of this month. However, because the exemption period is short and there are compliance concerns, crude oil trade flows are unlikely to return to normal. This move has also drawn criticism from U.S. allies, who worry it could weaken pressure on Moscow and Tehran.

According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, in the area east of the Suez Canal, around 18 tankers carrying about 13.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil may be available for purchase. About two weeks ago (when the exemption scope was expanded), the figure was 25 vessels and about 19 million barrels. Although more cargo has moved into the region after leaving the Suez Canal, the inventory available for sale has still declined.

At present, most vessels are sending signals of “standby,” meaning the final buyers have not been determined yet. One ship shows its destination is near Singapore, which is a common standby anchorage area. Among these tankers, 7 are carrying Urals crude oil, a flagship-grade Russian crude. The quality of this crude is similar to much of the Middle Eastern oil affected by the conflict.

By contrast, according to data from Vortexa, since last Friday when the exemption was granted, Iran’s offshore floating storage volume has been largely maintained at around 27 million barrels. India’s state-owned enterprises have shown hesitation due to obstacles in payment, insurance, and finding compliant vessels. Floating storage typically refers to tankers left idle at sea for at least a week; it is seen as an indicator of supply availability, but it does not include ships that may be carrying unsold cargo while in transit.

Speaking with Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based consulting firm, founder Hari (Vandana Hari) said, “I expect that, with U.S. exemptions in place, countries’ willingness to buy Iranian oil will be lower than their willingness to buy Russian oil.” She believes Iranian oil may have quality concerns and issues with payment mechanisms, while Russian oil does not face these obstacles.

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